Sunday, November 30, 2008

Thanksgiving Pause -- IFCN Wk 51 –Fri- Equity: $1,656.77

With this being a fairly large Holiday week (Thanksgiving-USA), very little action took place on Thursday.

Friday, the Euro slid 200+ pip vs. the Dollar but the Sterling held quite nicely. It looks like we might be able to collect a few profits by Monday's opening. Nevertheless, the week showed decent gains by the end of the week - much from the rise in XAG. (silver)

There are various reports due next week that should be instrumental in defining some new trend in currencies. Our orders will be ready.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4759. Trade in progress.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2742, stop 1.2585. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Long @145.49, stop 141.39. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.2062, stop 1.2225. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)

Trading account equity: $1,482.77

Silver position equity: $174.00
(Current XAG price: $10.27 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,656.77

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Think and Prosper! -- IFCN Wk 51 –Wed- Equity: $1,675.49

Thinking is obviously not popular today. Just a glance at the world's financial climate makes that clear. Now, most people are rewarded for following others' instructions, not their own thinking. That's fine if you are making a burger but not good when you are making financial decisions that ultimately impact the wealth of billions of others.. Tipping a 20 ton balanced boulder off a mountain top onto a village below – just because it won't hurt you personally and you think it will not really hurt anyone..., is irresponsible

God only knows where most of the instructions come from which people in business follow en masse. Typical business strategy is more a function of crowd behavior than anyone sitting down and really thinking about what is REALLY going on. Example: look at the ever present popularity of “buy and hold” strategies which get so many people into trouble when markets slide.

Trading correctly frees your time to think and actually feeds and encourages the thinking process.

Most who have followed my Infiniteyield Forex Challenge are aware that I am fond of tomes from Nassim Taleb because his clear thinking about risk – which is what this trading business is all about. Understanding risk better than the majority will make it possible for you to profit better than the majority. It is as simple and as complicated as that.

Watch this video--



-----

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4759. Trade in progress.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2742, stop 1.2585. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Long @145.49, stop 141.39. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.2062, stop 1.2225. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)

Trading account equity: $1,495.49

Silver position equity: $180.00
(Current XAG price: $10.30 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,675.49

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, November 25, 2008

Should We Thank Mr. O. for the current Rally? -- IFCN Wk 51 –Tue- Equity: $1,686.78



Obama is being credited with the recent rally in the Stock market. It's been reported (admittedly by kooks) that he can cure cancer, make the lame walk; and now all he has to do is.., raise the dead.

He might want to start with Detroit and the current proposal for resurrecting the auto industry.

The Detroit automakers only think they have trouble right now. Nothing compared to what they'll have if more people find out how poorly they've handled their resources for decades.

The average Detroit “big 3” worker receives $72 an hour, compared to $44 an hour which non-unionized employees make at Japanese car plants in America.

These are the bloated jobs we're supposed to care about?

Wow! Yeah- we need to save those jobs by taxing the average citizen who makes $18.22/hour. (current info from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) and no health benefits.

But it gets stranger----

Thousands of laid-off auto workers get paid $31 an hour to literally sit around and do nothing all year under an existing program that will likely continue if American taxpayers bail out the American auto industry. Many “workers” have been idling for their pay for years, some even more than a decade.

The program, called "Jobs Banks," has been around for 24 years. A few “excess” auto employees choose to do community service at the “Jobs Bank”, but many just read, do crossword puzzles and watch TV all day -- or stare at the walls. Tough to take at only $31/hour....

Check out the whole "Jobs Banks" article....
---------------------------------------

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4759. Trade in progress. (Stop and reverse at 1.4759, stop 1.4975)
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2742, stop 1.2585. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Long @145.49, stop 141.39. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.2062, stop 1.2225. Trade in progress.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 95.39, stopped at 96.59 for 120 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Long @ 96.59, stopped at 95.05 for 154 pip loss.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,526.78

Silver position equity: $160.00
(Current XAG price: $10.20 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,686.78 (NEW EQUITY HIGH)

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Rally Anyone?-- IFCN Wk 51 –Mon- Equity: $1,493.55

It is amazing that we haven't had much of a drawdown since we made equity highs almost a month ago.

This Monday morning we didn't get the chance to exit any of the FirstStrike Plus trades held over from last week, namely the long Gbp/Usd from 1.5126 and the short Usd/Jpy from 95.39.

It was close on the Usd/Jpy. The open (95.44) was just a few pips higher than our short entry- I wouldn't have blamed anyone for exiting, considering a break even trade being almost a profit considering the amount of time the trade spent underwater last week.

No worries. This week's orders were placed with greater-than-average personal anticipation. If the trades get reversed, they will be at better prices than their previous stops-- and the risk wasn't that great anyway.

Here's last week's recap:

The data below is as of the open of Monday, Nov. 24, 2008: (00:00 CST)

Equity from last Monday's open: $1,527.65

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 11/24/08 :
-None-
Total ONS Profits: $ -0-

Monday's FSP exits on 11/24/08:
-None-

FSP closed trades week of 11/17/08 through 11/24/08
*eur/usd: Long @ 1.2723, stopped at 1.2508 for 215 pip loss.
*usd/chf: Long @ 1.2061, stopped at 1.1945 for 116 pip loss.

Current FSP trades:
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4615.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 95.39, stop 97.39.
Current FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) If not exited will be held until profitable on a subsequent Monday's open, stopped out or reversed by next week's positions. For complete rules, check here----

OneNightStand 11/21/08 entry(s):
Long Usd/Chf @ 1.2289, stopped at 1.2189 for 100 pip loss.

Current FSP/ONS trade equity is: $1,457.55.

Special Silver long position:
Silver position equity: $36.00
(Current XAG price: $9.58 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
Weekly total XAG position equity loss: ($-2.00)

WEEK'S TOTAL EQUITY: $1,493.55
Total Loss for Week: $ 34.10
(2.2 % weekly decrease)

I believe this week could be a large one after seeing the price reversals on Thursday of last week. “Once more into the breach, dear friends, once more....”

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Calm Week Preserves Capital!-- IFCN Wk 50 – Fri- Equity: $1,504.39

This was a turnaround day for many markets. Not many of the ones we were in - maybe XAG (silver). We have had so many apparent turnarounds in silver that we will have to see $11/oz or greater to have that confidence.

The swings in stocks and other capital makets this week caused many great losses. Due to our volatility adjusted stance, we have weathered the recent storms quite well.

This isn't a time to get smug, as prudence is always better than being overconfident. The coming week does hold great potential since the weekly ranges and momentum indicate the possibility of increased profits.

I'm always willing to reap benefit from market confusion.
-----

The week's FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2723, stopped at 1.2508 for 215 pip loss.
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4615.
  • usd/chf: Long @ 1.2061, stopped at 1.1945 for 116 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 95.39, stop 97.39.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

OneNightStand 11/21/08 entry-
Long Usd/Chf @1.2289, stopped out Friday at 1.2189 for 100 pip loss.
Total loss: $3.88.

Trading account equity: $1,454.39.

Silver position equity: $ 50.00
(Current XAG price: $9.65 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,504.39

A relatively quiet week. Still not bad considering the violence in the marketplace.

We'll see how the Monday morning exits work out.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

“You thought I said what?”---H. Paulson- IFCN Wk 50 –Wed- Equity: $1,439.60

We got a few more FirstStrikePlus trades. For a short while this morning it looked like we were going to have a very good up-move in the Euro and Sterling. Then they reversed as quick as they started up.

So, we got stopped out of the eur/usd and usd/chf. Still no trade in the gbp/jpy. Maybe there won't be one this week.

Chop continues as individuals and large companies fear the worst. (Whatever that “worst” might mean to them!)

A few recent, timely quotes:

"I was very careful when I said what turning the corner
meant. I said I believe that that meant that we have stabilized
the financial system and prevented a collapse. I was also very
careful in saying that we have a lot of work ahead of us...," -
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson

"My most likely outcome is for a couple of quarters of
negative growth and inflation coming down, but not getting to
that deflationary state," - Federal Reserve Chairman Donald
Kohn

"There are some signs that credit markets, while still
quite strained, are improving" - U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

The week's FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2723, stopped at 1.2508 for 215 pip loss.
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4615.
  • usd/chf: Long @ 1.2061, stopped at 1.1945 for 116 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 95.39, stop 97.39.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,459.60.

Silver position equity: $-20.00
(Current XAG price: $9.30 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,439.60

A final quote, one of my lifetime favorites--

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."
Albert Einstein

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, November 18, 2008

Show us the Money?-- IFCN Wk 50 –Tue- Equity: $1,529.10

So--- we've all heard about the billions of dollars given to banks to improve liquidity and to ease the problems with getting money back in the the financial system, via either loans or credit guarantees.

What don't we see any of that money showing up anywhere that could do any of us some good?

There is a term people need to begin understanding- “quantitative easing”. (Hint: Japan has been doing this to their money supply since 1999-- and the main reason that the word "carry trade" is on the brain of almost all forex traders.)

It is an intentional action to force huge money reserves into the banking system with the expectation that banks will eventually exchange those assets for higher-yielding assets. What if the banks just decide not to make those exchanges?

The very real risk is that the banks bestowed with all the money fail to lend the excess reserves to businesses and consumers, which only extends the frozen credit that is threatening recession in the world's major economies.
The so-called excess reserves have jumped to $363.6 billion from $2 billion in August as the Fed added to its emergency lending programs.

When and if that money starts showing upin the economy, the markets will have a chance to get back to some version of normal. It could be a wait.

If you want to understand what the Fed is doing, in his own words (Governor Ben S. Bernanke) ..., check this out! It is incredibly enlightening!

-----

The week's only FirstStrikePlus trade:
  • Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2723, stop 1.2508.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,487.10

Silver position equity: $42.00
(Current XAG price: $9.61 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,529.10

See you tomorrow---

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, November 17, 2008

The Calm!-- IFCN Wk 50 –Mon- Equity: $1,479.31

The currency markets are in a self-imposed quagmire. That's fine.
If they calm down enough, when they start moving again, the potential for gain is much greater.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trade:
  • Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2723, stop 1.2508.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,486.31

Silver position equity: $ -6.00
(Current XAG price: $9.37 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,479.31


Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

FirstStrikePlus- 5 Profits!-- IFCN Wk 50 –Mon- Equity: $1,527.65

I didn't feel the need to post very much last week. The negativity is so thick out there that you could cut it with a chainsaw. Highlighting negativity doesn't help a trader's perspective.

It must run its course. It will.

I am actually extremely positive about the potential in the currency markets over the next few months. We could have some annoying markets, but trends are inevitable after all the talk of "crisis" that's besieged every area of the financial world.

I believe, beginning next year; the mood of most markets will improve substantially for a very simple reason: the majority of the world just got what it wanted.

The US had only a slight majority of people (who voted) that favored the current president-elect. But the rest of the world population that cared (over 85% by most figures) was gushing over the possibility of an O. win. Now that they have what they wanted, the actualizing of that fact in January will very likely make them feel that whatever decisions are made will be “super-intelligent” ones, since they'll be made by their new messiah. (If you think I exaggerate by my rhetoric, just spend 5 minutes reading or listening to the current fauning hype of the media.)

The collective will then vote with their capital, now that their future is secure. Secure in the belief that they won't have to pay for much of anything, themselves, in the future. The government, which they don't realize doesn't earn money..., only spends it..., will pay for their wonderful future.

The illusion will become real. Trends will begin anew.

Profits should be grand.

-----

I am making a minor change in how I recap the trades for the IFCN Challenge. Because our primary exit period for both OneNightStand and FirstStrikePlus trades is on Monday morning @ 00:00, it is only logical to make the official end/start of the week at that time.

This will make it easier for you to follow the trades and for me to keep up the running trades as they are executed without excessive complications. This is a good time to do it because there were no OneNightStand trades either the 10th or today the 17th.


Here's last week's recap:

The data below is as of the open of Monday, Nov. 17, 2008: (00:00 CST)

Equity from last recap: $1,554.20

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 11/10/08 or 11/17/08 :
-None-
Total ONS Profits: $ -0-

Monday's FSP exits:
*Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2681, exited at 1.2560 for 121 pips profit.
*Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, exited at 1.4275 for 1209 pips profit.
*Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5532, exited at 1.4743 for 789 pips profit.
*Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1853, exited at 1.1974 for 121 pips profit.
*Usd/Jpy: Short @ 97.18, exited at 96.89 for 29 pips profit.

Existing FSP trades:
(None)

Current FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) If not exited will be held until profitable on a subsequent Monday's open, stopped out or reversed by next week's positions. For complete rules, check here----

OneNightStand 11/14/08 entry(s):
-None-

Current FSP/ONS trade equity is: $1,489.65

Special Silver long position:
Silver position equity: $38.00
(Current XAG price: $9.59 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
Weekly total XAG position equity loss: ($-92.00)

WEEK'S TOTAL EQUITY: $1,527.65
Total Loss for Week: $ 26.55
(1.7 % weekly decrease)

-----

A side note: you would normally think that a week where you took profits of 2,269 pips over 5 markets that it would be a huge gain. We had a decent gain, but with the small positions placed due to the excessive volatility previously, it was not that significant. With the weekly ranges decreasing, it is more likely a directional move could earn us larger returns.

In addition, the core silver position had a $92 drop in value.

Here's to another week!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Dollar Resurgence Builds Profits!-- IFCN Wk 49 – Wed- Equity: $1,480.65

All the week's FirstStrike Plus trades are in positive territory. The trend week I was looking for showed up- just in the opposite direction from what I would have expected. Another example of why I take the trades anyway, even though my mind might not like it.

Some extremely so. The short Gbp/Jpy trade started last week, which didn't get exited this Monday because of insufficient profits-- now has in excess of 1200 pips profit. The Gbp/Usd from this week is up over 600 pips.

The FSP concept works. As long as we don't overtrade or overleverage our positions, the potential is very great.

These are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades (including 2 trades from last week):
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2681, stop 1.2917. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 160.27. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5532, stop 1.5879. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1853, stop 1.1721. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 97.18, stop 100.15. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.
Trading account equity: $1,492.65

Silver position equity: (-$12.00)
(Current XAG price: $9.34 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,480.65

Today we have a good example of the equity swings caused by having a significant portion of equity in one tradeable, namely XAG (silver). The quick drop in silver prices dropped our equity substantially in 24 hours. That volatility is why silver is called the “restless” metal. There is little rest for those who hold it long term and have intolerance for the typical swings it sports.

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Rangebound Trade Continues-- IFCN Wk 49 – Tue- Equity: $1,530.10

There isn't a lot of activity going on in the currencies, other than ranging trade that develops after large moves like we've seen in previous weeks. Banking institutions and trading firms are testing to see how committed their trading cohorts are to defending their positions, causing many false starts and aborted moves.

In general, it is wise to have smaller commitments when this type of market appears, and since we are positioned with trades with larger-than-normal stoploss parameters we are effectively trading with small positions. Adaptive risk works well when volatility is still relatively large, and yet allows the potential for profits when markets start trending again.

I'm all for the forex markets to congest a bit more before trending out of this area. But the markets don't care what I want. The best I can do when they are like this is just wait for my trades to execute.

Monday morning I exited two FirstStrikePlus trades profitably just after Midnight CST. Then, starting late Monday and early Tuesday, we entered 3 new trades to give us complete coverage in all 5 pairs. (See current listing below)

There were no OneNightStand trades to exit Monday morning.

FirstStrikePlus first-profitable-opening Monday exits:
*Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, exited at 1.5776 for 105 pip profit.
*Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, exited at 1.1756 for 92 pip profit.

These are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades (including 2 trades from last week):
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2681, stop 1.2917. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 160.27. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5532, stop 1.5879. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1853, stop 1.1721. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 97.18, stop 100.15. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.
Trading account equity: $1,438.10

Silver position equity: $92.00
(Current XAG price: $9.86 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,530.10

We've seen a lot of swinging prices in the XAG. As some have noted, the current XAG position unnaturally affects the Challenge account. I am very aware of that.

As risk/reward concerns are the stuff that traders live and die by, I know that the silver position is a valuable addition to my account, and very likely a position trade that can add incredible value vs. the short term risk and volatility negative effects. This may not suit you however.

If you do not wish to trade the XAG, don't. I was able to add it because of the outsized profits the Challenge account garnered in its regular trading this year-- and the risk/reward was so biased in my favor. I would rather have some of my excess balance holding silver than just sit there unused.

If and when silver is over $20, the human mind will be asking, “Why didn't we pick up more silver when it was under $10/ounce?”

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Positions Maintain Status Quo! -IFCN Wk 48 – Fri- $1,554.20

Another choppy week due to the forex markets trying to resume more normal volatility. There are potential profits from this week's current trades, but nothing to stir the imagination. We can expect to get greater profits after the markets get closer to “normal”. When smaller weekly volatility becomes typical again we will be able to trade larger size. Then some decent profits can accrue when a trend week develops.

This week's action was close to a wash. Which is appropriate since there was very little major action in the currencies, just a lot of to-and-fro with news of the election sifting through everyone's consciousness.

Next week could be a trend week. I'm ready.

Here's last week's Friday recap:

The data below is as of Friday's close, Nov. 7, 2008:

Start of week equity: $1,558.01

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 11/3/08 :
-None-
Total ONS Profits: $ -0-
(Total increase from Friday's equity: $-0-)

This Week's FSP exits and entries-
  • Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2903, exited at 1.2569 for 334 pips loss.
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2569, stopped at 1.2957 for 388 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Long @ 159.69, exited Monday open at 1.6242 for 273 pips profit.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 164.62. Current trade--
  • Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.6412, exited at 1.5881 for 531 pips loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, stop 1.6439. Current trade--
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, stop 1.1460. Current trade--
  • Usd/Jpy: Long @ 97.26, exited Monday open at 98.49 for 123 pips profit.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 97.18, stop 100.25. Current trade--
Current FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) If not exited will be held until profitable on a subsequent Monday's open, stopped out or reversed by next week's positions.

OneNightStand 11/7/08 entry(s):
-None-

Current FSP/ONS trade equity is: $1,424.20

Special Silver long position:
Silver position equity: $130.00
(Current XAG price: $10.05 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
Weekly total XAG position equity gain: (+$50.00)

WEEK'S TOTAL EQUITY: $1,554.20
Total Loss for Week: $ 3.81
(0.2 % weekly decrease)
-----

Despite large apparent losses (pip-wise) in the the FirstStrike Plus trades, remember that the positions have been so small that they are really minor-- usually less than .5% per pair, sometimes much less.

That is the benefit of having the FSP method key off recent volatility. When the previous weekly range is small, then a small move can profit us handsomely. When the previous week's range is large, the latent risk tends to diminish.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, November 6, 2008

Currency Rally Fizzles! IFCN Wk 48 – Thu- Equity: $1,585.43

After the brief rally in the currencies, they turned around and now the FirstStrike positions put on early in the week-- 3 which didn't get stopped out --  are now in profit mode.

It seems the world is trying to figure out how their great gift will be of benefit to them.  It may take a week or two.

Silver is still holding its own fairly well, last checked it was $10.15.  

TOTAL Equity: $1,585.43.

Have a good morning.

Only a chance for one OneNightStand trade-- the Usd/Chf.  Not that I think it is a particularly strong trade, but it is a trade we will take if it hits its 10 day high on Friday.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Currency Rally Continues! IFCN Wk 48 – Wed- Equity: $1,643.66.

After the push upwards yesterday, most currencies (except JPY) are gaining on the dollar. Suits me. Apparently with the election going in their favor, Europe believes there is hope for their future.

There is hope for them, temporarily. Drunkards are always happy when there is more free drink available. Until it is all over, which in the case of a world economic financial system, will take years to develop. Meanwhile, the prudent will pay for the profligates' futures.

Get ready for a long profitable ride in the Euro, Pound and metals. Inflation is here to stay!

-------
Imagine a rooming house that was beautiful at one time, started to have some aging issues, and bad tenants were allowed to come and live there. After a while these tenants wouldn't even pay rent but started forcing their neighbors to pay their rent for them. Mice, rats and roaches became a run of the mill problem with those new tenants, because they felt no responsibility to clean up.

Some of the good tenants got tired of this and complained, but got no relief because the people in charge of the property felt that the bad tenants needed to be tolerated, and everybody complaining (even though they were bearing the costs of the bad tenants) needed to shut up and pay their rent.

Some of the good tenants started leaving, even though they had been perfect tenants and had improved the property themselves for years in the past.

To fill the empty rooms, the rooming house let in new tenants who were friends of the bad tenants. They were just as bad or worse, and soon stopped paying rent and forced the remaining good neighbors to pay for their rent too.

The rodent and roach problem got ridiculous. Small fires started happening at the property because so many of the bad tenants would smoke and were very careless with their matches after lighting up. It wasn't their property anyway. They had figured out ways to not to have to pay for anything but their cigarettes (they were always trying to figure a way to get somebody to pay for them too).

The obvious risks got so great, the remaining good tenants who were paying more and more for a worse environment started leaving in droves. The remaining ones got stuck paying huge multiples of their original rents for a dismal, decaying, dangerous habitat.

The people officially in charge of the property, didn't show that they cared at all. They got their money, why should they care?

One day, one of the original bad tenants was smoking in bed and fell asleep-- a big fire started and took out the whole building.

The rodent and roach problem disappeared overnight. And so did the bad tenants. The good tenants that had been prudent and refused to live in risk and in decrepit conditions were all safe and somewhere else with their stuff.

Someone just let a very bad tenant into our rooming house.

JR (Feel free to quote me - www.infiniteyieldforex.blogger.com)
---------------------------------------------------------------

The XAG is doing well today. It is pushing us to new equity highs.

The week's remaining FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 164.62. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, stop 1.6439. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, stop 1.1460. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Still no current trade
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,433.66.

Silver position equity: $210.00
(Current XAG price: $10.45 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,643.66.

Now living with a bigger Sword-of-Damocles overhead. And a thinner thread.



Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Dollar weakens Dramatically! IFCN Wk 48 – Tue- Equity: $1,577.92.

It's nice to see the Eur/Usd,the Gbp/Usd and Gbp/Jpy go higher-- even if FSP trades this week are positioned the wrong way.

Not that I like the Challenge account losing money, but it is good to see the currency pairs holding well against the dollar – right in the price area where they should. Besides, my other accounts are enjoying this burst of activity. Notably: London Squeeze, which got me seriously long the Eur/Usd early this morning near 1.2725.

And in the Challenge account, XAG is helping with some of the fallout by gaining against the dollar. It has worked amazingly well as a ballast in these fluctuating days. Albeit, a heavy one sometimes.

Here are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2569, stopped out at 1.2957 for a 388 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 164.62. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, stop 1.6439. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, stop 1.1460. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Still no current trade
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,439.92.

Silver position equity: $138.00
(Current XAG price: $10.09 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,577.92.

We have a long week ahead. I don't have high expectations for the remaining trades.

And, with the election's likely result, the country can now start sliding faster into a hell from which there is little escape. Which will be bullish on commodities and foreign currencies.

Have as good of a day as possible.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, November 3, 2008

FirstStrikePlus Reversal Protocol-- IFCN Wk 48 – Mon- $1,563.21

We're getting trades, just not very profitable ones. But then again, our exits of last week haven't been too bad and the FirstStrikePlus concept of reversing existing trades has proven to be cost saving-- saving of the total stop being hit on the previous losing position. And XAG is holding.

I've received numerous questions about the protocol of reversing a trade in a pair from long to short before the stop is hit in the first trade--- perhaps it was unclear for you too. The explanation follows after the questioning email.

(Thanks for the question—Mr. E.)

Hi Mr. Rensink!

I have a question about First Strike Plus. First I
want to thank you for your Strategie, it works very
well. I have some different Brokers, one is Oanda, and
if we trade First Strike Plus, it is possible that
there is a Long Trade running and then we'll open also a short
trade, like this week in EUR/USD.

Let's say I have a running long position with 900 units
and I open a short position with 1000 units, the
problem at Oanda is that I only have the difference of
100 units running, because hedging is not possible at
Oanda.

Do you trade the other position on another account? Or
do you only trade the difference of these two orders?
I think you trade both orders at different accounts,
but I am not sure.

There is no difference as long as both orders are
open, but when one is closed I don't have running the
full unit size.

E------

Answer:
Hello E-----

If you are long a pair from one week, like the Gbp/Usd pair last week--
and you haven't been stopped out yet--- when the next trade in the pair
is signaled as a short --- you exit the long pair from last week at the
same order that you are now going short. This way, you are getting out of
the last trade which was not working anyway with a smaller loss than you
would if the original stop got hit.

Does this make sense to you?

This is a stop and reverse concept. I did allude to it in the
FirstStrikePlus material, but others besides yourself had trouble
fereting out the information.

In the case you mentioned, all you have to do place the sell order for
1900 units, 900 will cancel out the previous long and then you will have
a short of 1000 units.

This should clear up your understanding of the concept. No hedging is
necessary - the method can be traded in the same account. You only will
have on- at most- one trade in one direction per pair.

Best wishes.

JR

I trust this will clear up some of the confusion.

This morning I was able to exit two of the 4 remaining FirstStrikePlus trades profitably just after Midnight CST. The other two got exited when the FirstStrikePlus numbers for today were executed to the downside, as can be seen below:

Last Week's trades-
Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2903, exited at 1.2569 for 334 pips loss. (originally 414 pip risk)
Gbp/Jpy: Long @ 159.69, exited at 1.6242 for 273 pips profit.
Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.6412, exited at 1.5881 for 531 pips loss. (originally 902 pip risk)
Usd/Jpy: Long @ 97.26, exited at 98.49 for 123 pips profit.

Here are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2569, stop 1.2957. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 164.62. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, stop 1.6439. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, stop 1.1460. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: No current trade
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.
Trading account equity: $1,465.21

Silver position equity: $98.00
(Current XAG price: $9.89 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,563.21

Unfortunately, this trading recap is getting tedious and complicated. I will find a simpler way to relate the details of the account.

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Pretty Good Week! -IFCN Wk 47 – Fri- $1,558.01

Not too bad! I thought a number of times that this week might not be so good, but finally the XAG (silver) position helped push up the weekly numbers. There may be more of that in the future too.

Here's last week's Friday recap:

The data below is as of Friday's close, Oct. 31, 2008:

Start of week equity: $1,428.36
OneNightStand Exit(s) on 10/27/08 :
*eur/usd: Short @1.2728, out at 1.2566 for 162 pips profit
*gbp/jpy: Short @152.82, out at 147.20 for 562 pips profit
*gbp/usd: Short @1.6029, out at 1.5717 for 312 pips profit
*usd/jpy: Short @95.33, out at 93.59 for 174 pips profit
Total ONS Profits: $ 84.70
(Total increase from Friday's equity: $45.50)

FirstStrike Plus trades this week:
  • Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2903, stop 1.2489. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Long @ 159.69, stop 143.62. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.6412, stop 1.5510. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Short @ 1.1479, out at 1.1650 for 171 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: Long @ 97.26, stop 92.64. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) If not exited will be held until profitable on a subsequent Monday's open, stopped out or reversed by next week's positions.

Actual Losses: 171 pips
Current Position Losses: 593 pips
Current Position Profits: 124 pips
Current FSP equity: (-$20.85)

OneNightStand 10/31/08 entry(s):
-None- (Thank goodness!)

Current trade equity is: $ 1,453.01

Special Silver long position:
Silver position equity: $80.00
(Current XAG price: $9.80 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
Weekly total XAG position equity gain: (+$105.00)

WEEK'S TOTAL EQUITY: $1,558.01
Total Gain for Week: $ 129.65
(9.0 % weekly increase)

This was a good week considering the high volatility we've had to deal with. I wouldn't be surprised if we get profits out of most of the remaining FirstStrike Plus trades.

The Las Vegas London Squeeze workshop on Nov. 1st was a great success! All 11 who attended were exceptional people and I've no doubt will be able to improve their trading results. Just in time. The “Magnificent Seven” -the original class who learned the method- have reported strong gains recently. The diversified markets that we're seeing after the plunges have been exploited handily by London Squeeze.

Have a good next week.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!