Showing posts with label Midweek. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Midweek. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

So Far, a Week of Rest! -IFCN WK 68 - Wed- Equity: $3,004.79

Relative rest, that is.

As I am writing this, we got some chaotic action in the currencies and metals.

An unexpected change in home sales and other unexpected revisions in reports made previously scared more people into other currencies-not-the-dollar. Silver, which just an hour before dropped back to touch 13.00 -- suddenly rocketed more than 60 cents/ounce.

A lot of excitement in these markets.

I'm glad we have ways to get aboard and stay aboard.

-----
I am looking forward to the London Squeeze workshop being held in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday.

It promises to be a great time, with attendees from more than 5 countries around the globe.

With the recent volatility in forex, trading a daily volatility breakout method in addition to FirstStrikePlus and ONS has been valuable for equity curve smoothing. Not to mention having additional risk-adjusted opportunities when the market moves like it did this morning.

-----

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/jpy: Long @ 140.94, stop 138.90. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4727, stop 1.4426. Trade in progress.
  • usd/jpy: Long @ 97.77, stop 95.60. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,960.79

Silver position equity: $1,044.00
(Current XAG price: $13.56 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $3,004.79

It isn't surprising to have a choppy week after a startling trend week. We'll stay aboard and keep watching.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Up 13% in a Day! Thanks Ben! -IFCN WK 67 - Thu- Equity: $2,648.49

Wow!

Gold – sharply higher
Silver – sharply higher
Treasury bonds – sharply higher
Stocks – sharply higher
Currencies – sharply higher

See the important trend change on the daily Eur/Usd chart. Notice the parallel trendlines crossed.

Tuesday I mentioned that there was “Quite a showdown situation building.” and that “Maybe something spectacular will happen later in the week.” I'm glad it did.

Even I was surprised by the scope of the Fed's announcement. Not by the actions themselves, but by making it so completely clear that they will weaken the dollar by any means they have at their disposal and that no one is going to be able to keep up. That my good traders is a throw-down of a gauntlet .

In a move that some have referred to as greater in importance than the Plaza Accord (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord), the Fed told everyone in terms impossible to ignore..., they “guarantee” to the weaken the Dollar.

I'm just amazed at how many in the financial world haven't been listening to Bernanke and his constant prose (and actions) that he is going to keep things going if he has to drop money from helicopters. With the unlimited powers bestowed on him by whomever you can count on him pushing the big red cash button anytime he feels the vapors.

Interestingly, I had forgotten that an announcement was to be made Wednesday afternoon. (CST)

3 minutes before the announcement I calmly bought a particularly large add of Eur/Usd at 1.3109 with a 10 pip stop. (Golden Pip Method) God only knows what my fill would have been on the stop if it had been elected with an equally intense surprise move downward!

All of a sudden I saw the Euro streaking up the 1 minute chart like a emergency signal flare. I thought my data feed had misfired and was giving me faulty data. I checked the Usd/Chf and gold and silver and sure enough- something huge was underway.

I speed-dialed my trading accomplice in Regina, Sask. with, “What the hell just happened?” As I said it, I remembered that there was a 2 day Fed meeting this week and was confirmed when my buddy's news feed was spewing the details of the news release.

It was amazing to see again..., how powerful one's beliefs of what is really going on in the markets can make or break you. Having a plan of action based on reality, letting the markets own action dictate your positions is the only prudent one. It is much more effective than taking clues from the socialist-leaning homilies of the non-traders at CNN.

To complete the story of my Eur/Usd trade mentioned above, I exited 355 points higher an hour later. Not bad for a 10 pip risk. Needless to say, this was a particularly profitable day, only possible because market action tends to anticipate capital flow.

If a trader, because of some fundamental reason, steadfastly believed that the dollar is going to remain strong indefinitely and bet accordingly in the markets-- he could lose an unlimited amount of money if this peak in the dollar remains the high for the next few years. Having positions based on real, immediate capital flows enables you to be right or get right as quickly as the market moves.

FirstStrikePlus got us into the last 3 positions this week and overall the look very good. If the Euro and Swiss franc keep gaining on the dollar there could be much greater profits over the coming months.

Tuesday's action gave the Challenge account another bonus. Before the Fed announcement I had an XAG resting buy order for 100 units @ 12.00 which also got filled before the Fed announcement. So I have a total position size of 400 units of XAG with an average price of $10.95. With the snapback in XAG (silver) the addition has helped the XAG portion of the Challenge account.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
gbp/jpy: Short @ 135.48, stop 138.54. Trade in progress.
gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stopped at 1.3980 for 191 pip loss.
usd/chf: Short @ 1.1713, stop 1.1928. Trade in progress.
usd/jpy: Short @ 97.16, stop 98.57. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,892.49

Silver position equity: $756.00
(Current XAG price: $12.84 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $2,648.49

It is good to see some decent trades in FirstStrikePlus again. It is one thing to expect moves, but another to actually take the trades.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Maybe You're Pretty Good After All! - IFCN Wk 60 –Thu- Equity: $2,656.39

Budget out an hour of your time. You have a series of videos to watch.

I know that most of you who follow this site are individuals who have fought a long time to become profitable in forex, or futures and stock trading. The rest of you are likely at the start of finding out whether trading is suitable for you.

Not to be negative, but trading probably isn't the right thing for most of you.

Not that it's impossible for most of you to be marginally successful, especially if you're executing robust trading models like the methods we follow on this site-- but to stick with trading over the long haul takes a type of individual who has something different driving them.

I believe it is that which drives us that makes us successful. More about that in the future.

Courtesy of a generous reader, I got an email that had the link to the beginning of an incredible video series that all of you NEED to watch. (Thanks Archiphage)

Set aside an hour to watch all of the episodes. I have the links for all six below.

*****This set of videos is now inoperative*****

1- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZc0fLZ4EQM
2- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDshougcPWo
3- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1gvQ5e_c18&NR=1
4- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmQON_TTUzM
5- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cer-2yIRtow
6- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTuMrRbApI4

If you think you've had it difficult trading, wait until you see how 8 people plucked off the street in Britain do when they are 'forced' to trade markets. The markets involved are very recent, so you will be able to relate to the news and the psychological impacts that these guys were going through.

When you compare the type of returns we've been experiencing - with a whole lot less handwringing – with what kind of results a grand total of 8 people with counseling from resident pros before they started, you might start giving yourself some credit.

You WILL enjoy these YouTube videos (cut in six sections to make the file size tractable).

After you watch them you will think you are pretty competent. If you can execute your trades with or without fear, I'll agree. As I've repeated many times, it is the execution, and the “being in” that gets you the profits. The hedge fund trader who's money is being risked in the program, also made that abundantly clear.

If you can execute a solid method over and over and take the psychological stress of losses AND profits you definitely have a good chance of succeeding.

Meanwhile:

We've had a lot of action in the forex markets with the Gbp dominated pairs doing the leading this week. FSP is basically even, profitwise; all things considered.

Nice move XAG! I knew you had it in you.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4024, stop 1.3467.. Trade in progress.
eur/usd: Long @ 1.3096, stop 1.2867. Trade in progress.
gbp/jpy: Long @125.99, stop 119.38. Trade in progress.
usd/chf: Short @ 1.1450, stop 1.1674. Trade in progress.
usd/jpy: Long @ 90.09, stop 88.59. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $2,068.39

Silver position equity: $588.00
(Current XAG price: $12.34 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,656.39

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Wow #2! Up 17.7% this week alone! - Readers respond-- IFCN Wk 54 –Wed- Equity: $2,269.50

I believe that I get some of the more interesting emails any trader could receive.

The people who read this blog are not average. Most have serious intent to trade with a definable edge and go to great lengths to understand it and monetize it.

Most of you know that I use a private money management algorithm for trading ONS and FirstStrikePlus. I have no complaints about it, but many have wondered what money-management direction they should take for their own trading.

Fixed fractional methods are popular and many professional funds use them. Many following this site's systems use a fixed fractional approach risking 1/2% to 2% per trade per week. In other words, a total of 2.5% to 10% of total equity divided by the 5 markets we trade. Those who risk less have done great this year, those who risked more have done VERY well this year.

There are as many different money management possibilities as there are people. Some of you are very concervative, believing that there is a lot of time to conduct trading and others who believe that they want to get down to it and really put their capital at risk for an uncertain but potentially substantial reward.

I received the following email from a gentleman who has been researching money management and offers to show others the fruits of his effort. It isn't a style that I will likely use, but it shows how tolerant the author is to risking his profits. And you can imagine the profits obtained trading this style when markets act like they have the past few weeks.

The email follows:


Hi Joel-

The year is nearing the end I would like to take this opportunity to
express my deepest respect and appreciation to you and your endeavour
to educate the others.

Although I am not sending you emails on regular basis with updates on
my trading, I would like to say that the FSP and ONS has been more
than rewarding to me. I have been able to execute both strategies very
successfully which proved to me that one, as a trader, doesn't have to
spend hours with the charts and just couple of hours per week is
needed for decent profits.

In my previous email I have mentioned that I have been following the
DIBS for the most part of the year. I have however decided to drop
this system in favour to FSP and ONS being the only systems I will be
trading - all starting by January 2009.

I have also mentioned that your money management is staggering. I was
not able to match your performance which kept me thinking and testing
different ideas all over again. With a help from my friend
statistician/mathematician we have derived at the mm that, as you say,
keep profits during losing streak and adds on risk when the system is
winning.

Namely, that I would start the week with 5% for all 5 currency pairs
and should I win say 3% by the next coming Monday; I would invest the
gains for the next week totaling in 8% (5+3). If the following week
was a loser- say by 2%, I would decrease the base risk by 2% next
coming week, risking only 3% (5-2) over the 5 pairs.

This easy system of scaling the risk exposure depending on previous
week profit/loss has been quite a difference as opposed to just a
fixed percentage risk. Observing your mm approach I have learnt that
the profits in forex and any market for that matter is achieved by
sound money management technique with a very simple methods such as
those you teach.

I have mentioned my mm system not because I have achieved something, I
am sure you already know this kind of approach, but rather to
encourage you to talk more about money management in your blog. If it
would be your intention to reveal this approach or something similar
as I am sure many readers of your blog would benefit from it. Please
feel that this is just a suggestion/observation....

Best regards
Xxxx


-----
Thanks Xxxx! I'm sure it will give others something to think about. I do know that if you have a number of weeks in succession which are profitable, your profits can explode quickly. Thank youalso for your sentiments. The IFCN methods have been very profitable as of late, and not just because the markets have been perfect for them.

We have had many losses, as any of you who trade the systems can attest. I know that numbers of you almost refused to trade the USD/CHF because of the long string of losses it attained this last year. If you stopped trading it before this month, you are very sorry now. That is the way statistical/behavioral methods work. Very difficult emotionally and practically intolerable for typical traders.

They continue to work.

-----
I got stopped out of the long Gbp/Jpy trade after all the commotion in the last 24 hours. It happens. It also goes to show what kind of profits can be obtained with just a couple very strong pairs.

Some of you have wondered if you should place a trailing stop to protect your gains. Entirely your choice. What if you had decided to take just 150 pip profits on all of the winning trades this week. What would your profit situation be? Better or worse?

You get large equity gains by holding on to winners and letting them decide when they are done going your way.

The week's remaining FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Long @1.5173, stop 1.4993.. Trade in progress.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.3676, stop 1.3417. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Long @139.23, stopped at 135.91 for 332 pip loss.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.1582, stop 1.1763. Trade in progress.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 89.21, stop 91.51. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,869.50

Silver position equity: $400.00
(Current XAG price: $11.40 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,269.50

As I was preparing this for posting, I got a call from an Oregon trader of FirstStrike-- He said that as of today he was up more than 14% for the week. Congratulations for placing the trades, AND holding on. That is the more difficult part.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

FirstStrike Plus Is on a Roll! -- IFCN Wk 52 –Wed- Equity: $1,568.34

As the currencies have little strength this week, the short Sterling, and Sterling/Yen trades are doing quite well. Amazingly the short Usd/Jpy and short Usd/Chf are doing ok too. As this group of specific trades rarely profit at the same time, it will be interesting to see which, if any, remain profitable by the beginning of next week.

While the FirstStrike trades increased in value, the XAG dropped in value somewhat. Still, we had a little gain today.

There is a lot of hand-wringing going on the TV financial shows. Nassim Taleb was on the “Charlie Rose” show tonight. He was not at all positive about the world's stock markets recovering after the severe drops endured. But at the same time he believes incredible inflation will take place. Very interesting!

The fact that there is so much doom and gloom predicted may, all by itself, stem a lot of the feared reactions. The idea that corrections should and already do take a lot less time than they used to-- was also discussed by Taleb.

Either way, we are living in interesting times and will likely have the chance to continue profiting from the indecision of the masses. But not if you don't take the trades.

The week's existing FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Short @ 1.5149, stop 1.5420. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Short @144.02, stop 146.90.Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.2062, stop 1.2225. Trade in progress.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 94.38, stop 95.51. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,548.34

Silver position equity: $20.00
(Current XAG price: $9.50 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,568.34.

I've received a number of emails concerning the profitable results obtained by readers and followers of the methods followed on this site. With the permission of the writers I will publish a number of them tomorrow. The lessons they've proven should be of help to others who want to have an edge in forex and monetize it properly.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Think and Prosper! -- IFCN Wk 51 –Wed- Equity: $1,675.49

Thinking is obviously not popular today. Just a glance at the world's financial climate makes that clear. Now, most people are rewarded for following others' instructions, not their own thinking. That's fine if you are making a burger but not good when you are making financial decisions that ultimately impact the wealth of billions of others.. Tipping a 20 ton balanced boulder off a mountain top onto a village below – just because it won't hurt you personally and you think it will not really hurt anyone..., is irresponsible

God only knows where most of the instructions come from which people in business follow en masse. Typical business strategy is more a function of crowd behavior than anyone sitting down and really thinking about what is REALLY going on. Example: look at the ever present popularity of “buy and hold” strategies which get so many people into trouble when markets slide.

Trading correctly frees your time to think and actually feeds and encourages the thinking process.

Most who have followed my Infiniteyield Forex Challenge are aware that I am fond of tomes from Nassim Taleb because his clear thinking about risk – which is what this trading business is all about. Understanding risk better than the majority will make it possible for you to profit better than the majority. It is as simple and as complicated as that.

Watch this video--



-----

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4759. Trade in progress.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2742, stop 1.2585. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Long @145.49, stop 141.39. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.2062, stop 1.2225. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)

Trading account equity: $1,495.49

Silver position equity: $180.00
(Current XAG price: $10.30 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,675.49

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, November 19, 2008

“You thought I said what?”---H. Paulson- IFCN Wk 50 –Wed- Equity: $1,439.60

We got a few more FirstStrikePlus trades. For a short while this morning it looked like we were going to have a very good up-move in the Euro and Sterling. Then they reversed as quick as they started up.

So, we got stopped out of the eur/usd and usd/chf. Still no trade in the gbp/jpy. Maybe there won't be one this week.

Chop continues as individuals and large companies fear the worst. (Whatever that “worst” might mean to them!)

A few recent, timely quotes:

"I was very careful when I said what turning the corner
meant. I said I believe that that meant that we have stabilized
the financial system and prevented a collapse. I was also very
careful in saying that we have a lot of work ahead of us...," -
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson

"My most likely outcome is for a couple of quarters of
negative growth and inflation coming down, but not getting to
that deflationary state," - Federal Reserve Chairman Donald
Kohn

"There are some signs that credit markets, while still
quite strained, are improving" - U.S. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke

The week's FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2723, stopped at 1.2508 for 215 pip loss.
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4615.
  • usd/chf: Long @ 1.2061, stopped at 1.1945 for 116 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 95.39, stop 97.39.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,459.60.

Silver position equity: $-20.00
(Current XAG price: $9.30 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,439.60

A final quote, one of my lifetime favorites--

"Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe."
Albert Einstein

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Dollar Resurgence Builds Profits!-- IFCN Wk 49 – Wed- Equity: $1,480.65

All the week's FirstStrike Plus trades are in positive territory. The trend week I was looking for showed up- just in the opposite direction from what I would have expected. Another example of why I take the trades anyway, even though my mind might not like it.

Some extremely so. The short Gbp/Jpy trade started last week, which didn't get exited this Monday because of insufficient profits-- now has in excess of 1200 pips profit. The Gbp/Usd from this week is up over 600 pips.

The FSP concept works. As long as we don't overtrade or overleverage our positions, the potential is very great.

These are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades (including 2 trades from last week):
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2681, stop 1.2917. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 160.27. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5532, stop 1.5879. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1853, stop 1.1721. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 97.18, stop 100.15. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.
Trading account equity: $1,492.65

Silver position equity: (-$12.00)
(Current XAG price: $9.34 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,480.65

Today we have a good example of the equity swings caused by having a significant portion of equity in one tradeable, namely XAG (silver). The quick drop in silver prices dropped our equity substantially in 24 hours. That volatility is why silver is called the “restless” metal. There is little rest for those who hold it long term and have intolerance for the typical swings it sports.

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Currency Rally Continues! IFCN Wk 48 – Wed- Equity: $1,643.66.

After the push upwards yesterday, most currencies (except JPY) are gaining on the dollar. Suits me. Apparently with the election going in their favor, Europe believes there is hope for their future.

There is hope for them, temporarily. Drunkards are always happy when there is more free drink available. Until it is all over, which in the case of a world economic financial system, will take years to develop. Meanwhile, the prudent will pay for the profligates' futures.

Get ready for a long profitable ride in the Euro, Pound and metals. Inflation is here to stay!

-------
Imagine a rooming house that was beautiful at one time, started to have some aging issues, and bad tenants were allowed to come and live there. After a while these tenants wouldn't even pay rent but started forcing their neighbors to pay their rent for them. Mice, rats and roaches became a run of the mill problem with those new tenants, because they felt no responsibility to clean up.

Some of the good tenants got tired of this and complained, but got no relief because the people in charge of the property felt that the bad tenants needed to be tolerated, and everybody complaining (even though they were bearing the costs of the bad tenants) needed to shut up and pay their rent.

Some of the good tenants started leaving, even though they had been perfect tenants and had improved the property themselves for years in the past.

To fill the empty rooms, the rooming house let in new tenants who were friends of the bad tenants. They were just as bad or worse, and soon stopped paying rent and forced the remaining good neighbors to pay for their rent too.

The rodent and roach problem got ridiculous. Small fires started happening at the property because so many of the bad tenants would smoke and were very careless with their matches after lighting up. It wasn't their property anyway. They had figured out ways to not to have to pay for anything but their cigarettes (they were always trying to figure a way to get somebody to pay for them too).

The obvious risks got so great, the remaining good tenants who were paying more and more for a worse environment started leaving in droves. The remaining ones got stuck paying huge multiples of their original rents for a dismal, decaying, dangerous habitat.

The people officially in charge of the property, didn't show that they cared at all. They got their money, why should they care?

One day, one of the original bad tenants was smoking in bed and fell asleep-- a big fire started and took out the whole building.

The rodent and roach problem disappeared overnight. And so did the bad tenants. The good tenants that had been prudent and refused to live in risk and in decrepit conditions were all safe and somewhere else with their stuff.

Someone just let a very bad tenant into our rooming house.

JR (Feel free to quote me - www.infiniteyieldforex.blogger.com)
---------------------------------------------------------------

The XAG is doing well today. It is pushing us to new equity highs.

The week's remaining FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 164.62. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, stop 1.6439. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, stop 1.1460. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Still no current trade
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,433.66.

Silver position equity: $210.00
(Current XAG price: $10.45 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,643.66.

Now living with a bigger Sword-of-Damocles overhead. And a thinner thread.



Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Perversity Rules- New Equity Highs! -IFCN Wk 47 – Wed - $1,667.31

I am surprised but happy that we got filled on all of our trades so quickly. A different wind is blowing in the forex market this week. The wind is up for most currencies.

It definitely looks like the dollar top is in. All the self-proclaimed savants 2 ½ months ago were certain that the Euro was unkillable – last week believed the Euro was finished. That is the condition I especially love when I contemplate a turn in the market.

The perversity of the market rules! It really would be best for all concerned if the currencies and commodity and stock markets continue to hold and put on gains. Long term, no one profits from depressions or conditions that can turn into them. The sooner the markets get liquid and buoyant, the better it is other players AND for us.

If the major players get sidelined by topsy-turvy markets, who will there be to pay us?

No surprise to most of you, after yesterday's bullish action in the XAG (silver), early this morning I had to buy another 100 units . This time I got filled at $9.30. That now makes the Challenge account's XAG total position 200 units (200 oz.) with a position average of $9.40. The XAG position stop is now placed at $7.90.

It was gratifying to see silver jump up again later this morning. I'll be a little happier when silver is $25.00.

Here are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2903, stop 1.2489. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Long @ 159.69, stop 143.62. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.6412, stop 1.5510. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Short @ 1.1479, stop 1.1650. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Long @ 97.26, stop 92.64. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Current trade equity is: $1,503.31
Silver position equity: $164.00
(Current XAG price: $10.22 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,667.31

It is too bad our position sizes are so small on FSP this week. It can't be helped when the last few weeks have been so violent.

Have a good evening.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

The Dollar, the Strongest of the Weak..., Today! -IFCN Wk 46 – Wed – $1,402.66

The dollar struck two-year highs against a majority of currencies today as concerns about worsening national economies again challenged investors to pare some more “risky” holdings. Investors are finally understanding that European economies could deteriorate as much as the U.S. economy. Funny how they are actually buying into that “weak” US economy when they sell their currencies and buy the dollar.

What interests me is how these same investors who just 3 months ago were dyed-in-the-wool euro zealots are now dyed-in-the-wool dollar zealots.

The fact that they were so wrong in their judgment before now makes them experts in determining “real” value---TODAY???

Why not pay someone to throw gasoline on the flames? The Bank of England Governor ---Mervyn King, suggested this week that the British economy might be entering the first recession it's seen in 16 years. That didn't help European investor's feeling about holding currencies and stocks in an already depleted market. More selling was triggered.

All of this tumult really helped our FirstStrikePlus trades. The Gbp/Jpy pair had 1550 pips profit at the time of writing this. Impressive.

Too bad the position sizes of the Challenge account are so much smaller this week because of the volatility last week. That is the nature of trading correctly. At least we are in, in the right markets-- and in the right directions.

The current week's FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.3367, stop 1.3538. Trade in progress..
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 174.07, stop 178.65. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.7193, stop 1.7452. Trade in progress..
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1401, stop 1.1302. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 100.95, stop 102.47. Trade in progress
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete ruleset for effective trade management.

Current trade equity is: $1,408.66
Silver position equity: ($6.00 -)
(Current XAG price: $ 9.44 – 100 unit position average: $9.50)

TOTAL Equity: $1,402.66

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

It Takes Time....IFCN Wk 45 – Wed- Equity $1,182.72

Markets rarely stop and turn on a dime. After getting soundly pummelled for weeks, oftentimes the best solution is respite. That is the current choice of the most of traders.
We lost another trade today. The FirstStrike long Usd/Jpy @ 101.02 got stopped out at 99.82 for a loss of 120 pips. It was a victim of featureless trading after the sharp run-up on Monday. Traders are not very willing to push much position size in any other currency but the dollar.

Fear of increasingly bad economic numbers is keeping most forex traders on the sidelines. Last week's action took a major psychological toll on everyone. While most of the panic selling and buying has been completed, any new positions placed are very tentative in nature.

Current trading reminds one of old sayings about cats and hot stoves.


This week's current, remaining FirstStrike trades:
  • Gbp/Jpy: Long @ 171.74, stop 169.94.
  • Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.7119, stop 1.6999.
FirstStrike trades not stopped out before Friday-- exit on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current trade equity is: $1,182.72

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

The TRUTH: We're the 10th Man!! - IFCN Wk 44 – Wed- Equity: $1,366.54

The following was sent to me thanks to George B. --

Bar Stool Economics

Suppose that every day, ten men go out for beer and the bill for all ten comes to $100.

If they paid their bill the way we pay our taxes, it would go something like this:

  • The first four men (the poorest) would pay nothing.
  • The fifth would pay $1.
  • The sixth would pay $3.
  • The seventh would pay $7.
  • The eighth would pay $12.
  • The ninth would pay $18..
  • The tenth man (the richest) would pay $59.

So, that's what they decided to do.

The ten men drank in the bar every day and seemed quite happy with the arrangement, until one day, the owner threw them a curve.

'Since you are all such good customers, he said, 'I'm going to reduce the cost of your daily beer by $20.'

Drinks for the ten now cost just $ 80.

The group still wanted to pay their bill the way we pay our taxes so the first four men were unaffected. They would still drink for free.

But what about the other six men - the paying customers?

How could they divide the $20 windfall so that everyone would get his 'fair share?'

They realized that $20 divided by six is $3.33.

But if they subtracted that from everybody's share, then the fifth man and the sixth man would each end up being paid to drink his beer.

So, the bar owner suggested that it would be fair to reduce each man's bill by roughly the same amount, and he proceeded to work out the amounts each should pay.

And so:

The fifth man, like the first four, paid nothing (100% savings). The sixth now paid $2 instead of $3 (33%savings). The seventh now paid $5 instead of $7 (28%savings). The eighth now paid $9 instead of $12 (25% savings). The ninth now paid $14 instead of $18 (22% savings) The tenth now paid $49 instead of $59 (16% savings).

Each of the six was better off than before.

And the first four continued to drink for free. But once outside the restaurant, the men began to compare their savings.

'I only got a dollar out of the $20,' declared the sixth man.

He pointed to the tenth man, 'but he got $10!'

'Yeah, that's right,' exclaimed the fifth man.

'I only saved a dollar, too. It's unfair that he got ten times more than I!'

'That's true!!' shouted the seventh man.

'Why should he get $10 back when I got only two? The wealthy get all the breaks!'

'Wait a minute,' yelled the first four men in unison.

'We didn't get anything at all. The system exploits the poor.'

The nine men surrounded the tenth and beat him up.

The next night the tenth man didn't show up for drinks, so the nine sat down and had beers without him.

But when it came time to pay the bill, they discovered something important.

They didn't have enough money between all of them for even half of the bill!

And that, boys and girls, journalists, and college professors, is how our tax system works.

The people who pay the highest taxes get the most benefit from a tax reduction.

Tax them too much, attack them for being wealthy, and they just may not show up anymore. (Note: Think: Atlas Shrugged! - jr)

In fact, they might start drinking overseas where the atmosphere is somewhat friendlier...


David R. Kamerschen, Ph.D.
Professor of Economics, University of Georgia

For those who understand, no explanation is needed.

For those who do not understand, no explanation is possible
__________________

Here is the status of this week's FirstStrike trades:
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.3518, stopped out at 1.3638 for a 120 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 180.00, exited at 177.03 for 297 pip profit.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.7488, stopped out at 1.7608 for a 120 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1460, stopped out at 1.1340 for a 120 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 102.18, stop 103.38. Trade in progress.
FirstStrike trades not stopped out before Friday-- exit on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

I'm beginning to believe the worst of the avalanche is over. There are very few shoes left to fall.

Have a good evening.


Current trade equity is: $1,226.54.
Silver position equity: $140.00.
(Current XAG price: $11.57 – 200 unit position average: 10.87)
TOTAL Equity: $1,366.54

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Quiet Day! IFCN Wk 43 – Wed- Equity: $1,492.80

Obviously, everyone is waiting to see if a vote is going to succeed on the Bail-out. As volatile as today was, it was relatively calm compared to those previous.

The market's mood is like the family waiting room in a maximum security prison 1 hour before an execution, everyone agonizing to see if the governor will indeed commute the prisoner's sentence as promised.

We will watch and wait. What else can we do? No one asked us when the debts were made and no one asked us if we wanted to pay for it.

On a brighter point, buying the extra silver yesterday at $12.00 was good. Silver roared up to just short of $13 this morning. It seems to be hard to keep a good metal down. At least today....

__________________


Week's remaining FirstStrike trade:
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.8230, stop 1.7940. (50% profit stop- At least 290 pips)
FirstStrike trades not stopped out before Friday-- exit on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current trade equity is: $1,312.80.

Silver position equity: $180.00. (Current silver price: $12.37/average $11.17)
TOTAL Equity: $1,492.80

Not much to do but sit watch. Perhaps we'll get a bottom in the Euro and Sterling if they ever get this bail-out package ok'd. If not getting the package done makes the markets go down, it could be a sell-the-news-buy-the-fact situation.

See you tomorrow.


Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, September 24, 2008

A Time for Rest....

The markets have gone from wildly crazed to..., dull.  

Amazing. I've had virtually no trades for a day.  

People are digesting the historic buyout/bailout/sellout going on in America.

It won't take long, they'll get off the sidelines soon. Nevertheless, this is making a light week for us. I can get some long-awaited research done.

I'm still long FirstStrike Gbp/Jpy from @ 195.75 with the protective stop at 194.85.

Current trade equity is: $1,191.68. 
Silver position equity:       $257.00. (Current silver price: $13.32
TOTAL Equity:             $1,439.55. 

See you tomorrow.

Joel Rensink 
www.infiniteyield.com

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Best Solution! IFCN Wk 41 – Wed- Equity: $1,162.49

We are now out of the week's FirstStrike trades.

I used the 50% trail rule mentioned last week on the short Gbp/Jpy. It seemed appropriate as the maximum profit on the trade was 569 pips at one point. It is just as well because the market volatility today was extreme again and caused fits for most traders still operating.

It is good to have a little pause in the week to reflect on what we're doing here.

For those of us who will admit it; a very helpless feeling comes over you when you make a trade. The size of that helpless feeling may decrease over time and after many trades may seem to meld into the other feelings in your day. It will always be there.

The reason is because we do not know for sure whether or not the trade will work out. Every trade is a little leap of faith. I'm reminded of a scene in the movie, Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, where Harrison Ford (corrected) has to cross a bottomless void to get to the final room where the old Knight and Grail are to be found. He steps out without seeing a path, not knowing if this action is his last; obviously believing the information which showed him the way that far. He lived to get treasures another day.

You only have control over your risk. Good trades take care of themselves, most of the time. It is when circumstances materially change after the trade begins-- where the opportunities are rich.

Yes, you get to choose when to put on a trade, and if you are trading some statistical method such as the ones highlighted here-- you will take entries that are relatively mechanical in nature. If you trade the method completely mechanically you will only make the return that is dictated by one set of parameters with no variance for changing conditions.


Take note of the following truths about trading and you will find the secret to excess returns.
  • Your entries are not what can break your account – but the way you exit can.
  • Your entry does not make the profits or losses – the way you exit does.
  • It is not your entry which is first in importance – it is always your exit.

__________________


The following FirstStrike trades were executed this week:
  • Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.4439, stopped out at 1.4379 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 190.21, stopped out at 187.36 for a 285 pip profit. (50% Trail option)
  • Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.8086, stopped out at 1.8026 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: Short @ 1.1090, stopped out at 1.1150 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 105.38, stopped out at 105.98 for a 60 pip loss.

Have a good morning.

Current equity is $1,162.49. Not bad for a week with 4 losses!


Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

A day of rest! --IFCN Wk 40 -Tue- Equity: $1,275.46.

Not much change in the forex markets after yesterday's stunning moves. Monday's dollar surge resolved into a sideways trading pattern. The Euro and the Sterling have been trounced very hard over the last 5 weeks. A rest for awhile wouldn't be unusual at all.

The week's FirstStrike trades are still in progress:
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.4364, stop 1.4364.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 194.27, stop 194.27.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.7872, stop 1.7872.
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1199, stop 1.1199.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 108.31, stop 108.91.
Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday-- exits on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $1,275.46.


Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Euro/Usd Hits 1.4400! --IFCN Wk 39 -Wed- Equity: $1,031.60

Weeks ago when the Euro was still threatening new highs I mentioned that the Euro could easily fall all the way back to 1.4400. I got a few chiding emails at the time, but that's fine. Markets always look great just before they fall, and look awful just before they lift off. The projection of 1.4400 was a coincidence of Gann rules and some retracement rules from an old wheat trader named Burton Pugh.

Burton Pugh had some very useful rules that he wrote in the small publication, “Science and Secrets of Wheat trading.” They applied to all markets, but since he mainly ran a wheat hedging operation, he promoted their use in wheat. He had many “Bull Market rules” and “Bear Market rules”, but one direction given in the “Bear Market rules” he indicated that after a market broke its uptrend line, (which the Eur/Usd had) it would return back to the lows of its last big advance before starting a new advance. In this case, the 1.4400 area. Gann often indicated that numbers like 144 are natural support areas.

So there you have a simple anatomy of a “return move” that worked perfectly to the numbers. Burton Pugh and W.D. Gann are both long gone and dead for more than 50 years. Maybe they had a few things figured out after all.

Pugh's publication is long out-of-print and likely only in the hands of a few older traders like me who hoard unusual market trading paraphernalia. There is and always has been a lot of refuse in the trading business, but never as bad in the past as we see available on the internet. Incredible in its uselessness for serious traders.

Not because everything is without merit, but most of the materials which contain meritorious content have equally offsetting bad content and there is no way a neophyte would ever be able to tell which is right and which the dross.

So, most information readily available is worthless because of its adulterations. It actually forces the determined trader to start completely from scratch to find trading truth, and that takes glacial time frames to get results.

My recommendation: GO OLD. Read very old trading books and material. Most systems and methods promoted in the past were simpler and more robust. Much of what was written 50 years ago wasn't incredibly powerful, but it was still much better than the tripe promoted by every third email you get now. And the older material is easy to test to give you a baseline for future study.

-----

A potential “Turtle Trade” entry is imminent. A higher probability sell in the Usd/Jpy @ 107.59. (See chart attached below) The reason the Turtle method has enjoyed some greater than average success is because of a unique provision for the method to increase the size placed on their Donchian-style breakouts after a previous trade which resulted in a loss. All based on a simple 20-day breakout for going long and short.

Since the last Usd/Jpy breakout buy was at 108.00, if the market takes out the current 20-day low at 107.60 that would make the last trade a loss -- and according to the Turtle's algorithm -- that'll increase the new short trade's expectation. I've run the Turtle concept of the “last-trade-a-loser” position increase on all of the major markets many times and many different ways, even with non-Turtle type systems --- and I have to concur that there seems to be a measurable increase in value for trades after a previous loss.


Just thought you might find it useful to think about, and perhaps study for future use.

-----

The FirstStrike shorts: Eur/Usd and Gbp/Jpy are still working and increasing capital.

This week's surviving FirstStrike entries:
Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.4584, stop 1.4644. Trade in progress.
Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 194.93, stop 195.83. Trade in progress.
Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday-- exits on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

I thought yesterday that there might be a good potential for my last two trades to diminish or even be stopped out this week. I would prefer that not be the case, but the dollar seems to be losing momentum. Whatever happens, we are at a new equity high right now. That is always a good thing.


Current equity is $1,031.60.

Joel Rensink

www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!



Tuesday, September 2, 2008

Dollar Bulls to Own the Earth? --IFCN Wk 39 -Tue- Equity: $1,003.55

If the Euro and Pound continue to fall at their current rates, it wouldn't take long. As all of us know, currency speculation and exchange is accomplished on margin. Trends like we've seen recently can make a well-placed $10,000 investment in the dollar a $2 million bet with 200:1 leverage. Overdo your risk and you can lose in an hour what you made in month by rational trading.

I think a few too many specs out there are counting their profits a bit early, but that's how markets facilitate trade. They give everyone what they want, just at different times and prices than they originally expected.

Everyone has too much position size on when they take their most surprising loss.

-----

Now we have been stopped out of three of the week's FirstStrike trades. Only the short Eur/Usd and the short Gbp/Jpy are still in play.

This week's FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.4584, stop 1.4644. Trade still in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 194.93, stop 195.83. Trade still in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.8080, stopped out at 1.8020.
  • Usd/Chf: Short @ 1.0979, stopped out at 1.1039.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 108.03, stopped out at 108.63.
Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday-- exits on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

I have a feeling we're going to have two more losses by the end of the week. When markets get hammered as hard as the ones we've been following, volatility increases and makes it difficult for the markets to reverse or go forward. Then you see volatility with no direction for longer than you might like.

Current equity is $1,003.55.

Joel Rensink

www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Yen Volatility Creates 2nd Opportunity!--IFCN Wk 38 -Wed- Equity: $852.11.

It happened again. I was forced to sell more Usd/Jpy.

The Usd/Jpy fell like a Scud missile Tuesday night after my posting the information about the added size placed on the short FirstStrike Usd/Jpy trade.

Early this morning, when the market took out the Tuesday's low, I moved the protective stop on the second add-on to breakeven. And then, the unbelievable happened – the market shot right back up and stopped out Tuesday's add-on short at 109.63 for no loss/no gain.

I figured, if it can come back this far, it will probably march up and stop out my main trade put on Monday. I waited almost 4 hours as the market traded above 109.63, getting as high as 109.89 – but not going anywhere near my stop on the first position.

I re-entered my additional sell at 109.63 again, this time with a stop of 109.90. Meanwhile, the Gbp/Usd and the Eur/Usd started getting stronger. Right after 1:10 PM CST I got filled on my added position.

As you are likely aware, I don't often take additional trades in the Challenge account. This adding of size at the FirstStrike trade price is obviously elective and only done at this critical period because of my awareness of the method and my understanding of the greater potential of a FirstStrike trade that has resisted many attempts to fail.

To reiterate from yesterday: when I see unusual strength in a specific trade while the other pairs' trades fail, the abnormally strong pair needs to be rewarded with more size.

I am willing to accept additional losses if the larger, parallel trade doesn't work out. As I've said before, the way one ultimately makes large profits as a trader is by having large size in a market that is going your direction and keeps going.

If you have further questions about this trade you can read yesterday's post again.

____________________

The following is this week's only working FirstStrike entry:

  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 109.63, stop 110.23. Currently profitable with additional size.
Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday-- exits on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $852.11.

The current equity is higher despite the 4 losses this week due to my increased size on the trade, explained above.

As an additional note warning the dollar's strength may be temporarily waning, look at the following chart of the Gbp/Usd.



The market patern displayed is the diagonal triangle formation. They are also known as “wedges” among the Elliot Wave crowd. These are highly reliable formations indicating temporary or significant bottoms or tops, depending on where you find them.

A diagonal triangle (falling wedge) is a bullish signal, and usually comes at the end of an downtrend. It combines a down trendline (drawn across lower high prices) with another downward-sloping (but converging) support line. When the market breaks out of the “funnel” created by the converging lines, it tends to make an important bottom for a while.


We'll see how strong the dollar is tomorrow.

Joel Rensink

www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!