Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Death by Newstrade! - IFCN Wk 21 -Wed- Equity: $710.05

The Fed interest rate change took place today as expected. Or not as completely expected as some thought.

The Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd in particular oscillated substantially before finally deciding the greatest number of stops to hit were to the upside. So up they went.

Anyone who tried to newstrade had difficulties keeping a position without having a large stop in place. The Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy also had multiple reversals today, creating havoc for anyone trading around news time.

A trading friend of mine called me today who has traded currencies on major news reports for 10 years. He got whipped horribly in the Usd/Jpy and Eur/Usd. He quit taking trades today after getting his stops hit 3 separate times in 8 minutes.

It is a sorry situation that most new traders get faulty information telling them that news trading is where they should start to make money in forex. In actuality, it is one of the more difficult ways to extract money from the markets.  Simply bracketing the market prior to newstime is a fool's errand.

There are some good ways of making trades off of the news which aren't very risky. But, like most good trading methods, they require diligence and consistent application.  

My last working FirstStrike trade of the week, ie: short the Usd/Jpy @ 104.02; got stopped out at 104.62 for a loss of 60 pips.

Now, we can get ready for some possible OneNightStand trades on Friday. This time, the long Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy and the short Gbp/Usd are strong possibilities for ONS this week.

Welcome to the 5 new subscribers that signed up today. You join us in the middle of a little drawdown, which is the most common situation for a trader. As mentioned in posts before, more than 95% of the time a trader is in some form of drawdown.

You do get used to it, but never get to like it. Well, I never have.

Current equity is $710.05.

Have a good night.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com


Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Rate change blues? - IFCN Wk 21 -Tue- Equity: $714.10



A number of big reports will be out tomorrow. Not the least of which will be the FOMC Statement report @ 14:15 CST.  

It is common for the day preceding the "big news" to have a lot of action, and today was a good example.  The pound lost a lot of ground to the dollar.  We'll see if tomorrow how well the market has anticipated the Fed's actions.

At last we entered our last two FirstStrike trades for the week and since one of them got stopped out quickly, we are only left in one trade, short the Usd/Jpy.

Tuesday's trades:
  • Long Usd/Chf @ 1.0388, stopped out @ 1.0328 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Short Usd/Jpy @ 104.02, stop 104.62. Currently at a small profit.
Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $714.10.

Have a good night.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, April 28, 2008

The Dollar making a slow turn? - IFCN Wk 21 -Mon- Equity: $722.36

There was no real news out today, except that the dollar continues to trade near an 8 week high versus the yen.

That means that someone is beginning to buy the dollar. And the Euro still isn't having the best time right now. Euro weakness last week wasn't met with a snapback, just a wimper today.

I always find it useful when a big bank tells you how to trade--- I found the following on Bloomberg:

Bank of America Says Buy Euro, Sell Dollar on U.S. Rate Cuts

Investors were encouraged today to buy the euro and sell the dollar because they believe that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates and the European Central Bank will keep them steady until October. That is at least the opinion of Bank of America, Corp.

Bank of America specifically recommended investors buy the euro at $1.5630 with a target of $1.6250 and sell the currency should it close below $1.5342 for two consecutive days.

Maybe they will be right, but I think the information is more useful to traders as a “contrary opinion” indicator.

When banks give the public specific advice, I focus on the potential moves when it is proven wrong. I will watch the Eur/Usd 1.5342 level with interest.
-----

Last Friday's single OneNightStand trade, long Usd/Jpy @ 104.66 was exited early this morning at 104.52 for a small 14 pip loss Monday 00:01 CST.

Later today, FirstStrike entered 3 of the markets we placed our orders.

The Eur/Usd went up, just elected entry and dropped heavily, creating an immediate loss.

The Gbp/Jpy got long, the Gbp/Usd got short, and both got stopped out soon after entry.

The only trades not hit are the trades for Usd/Chf and the Usd/Jpy which is poised at a critical juncture which could force a quick and big move in either direction.

The following are our 3 initial FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5693, stopped out @ 1.5633.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 208.08, stopped out @ 207.18. (NOTE: 90 pip risk instead of 60)
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9787, stopped out @ 1.9847.

FirstStrike trades still waiting to be elected:
Usd/Chf:
  • BUY 1.0388, stop 1.0328.
  • SELL 1.0288, stop 1.0348.
Usd/Jpy:
  • BUY 105.02, stop 104.42.
  • SELL 104.02, stop 104.62.
When one of the buy or sell orders is filled on a currency pair, I cancel the other order. Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $722.36.

Have a good night.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sunday, April 27, 2008

Dollar gets Stronger, Market Turmoil still causes losses!-- IFCN Wk 20 -Fri- Equity: $743.53

The dollar gained quite a bit this week as expected. Too bad our initial gains evaporated.

NOTE: I am getting a lot of bouncing emails from Yahoo addresses, and those similar to them. If you are not getting emails from:
..., that is why.

Here is the recap of our trading week--

The data below is as of Friday's close, April 25, 2008:

We had one OneNightStand trade executed on Friday. We went long Usd/Jpy @ 104.66 with a 100 pip stop at 103.66. It did not get hit, so we will exit on Monday morning @ 00:01 CST.

Start of week equity: $ 747.51

Completed FirstStrike trades:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5883, stopped out @ 1.5823 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 206.91, exited Friday @ 207.00 for 9 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9958, exited Friday @ 1.9815 for 143 pip profit.
  • Usd/Chf: short @ 1.0120, stopped out @ 1.0180 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 103.31, stopped out @ 103.91 for a 60 pip loss.
Total of 189 pips in losses.
Total of 143 pips in profits.
Net loss: 46 pips (Due to different position sizes on the different pairs, the actual net gain/loss this week was close to a wash.)

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 04/2108:
-None-
OneNightStand 04/25/08 entries:
Usd/Jpy: long @ 104.66 with stoploss @ 103.66. Since the trade was not stopped out on the day of entry (Friday) it will be exited for a profit or loss Monday 00:01 CST. Current loss @ Friday close: 23 pips.

Total Unrealized Loss: $ 1.88
End of week equity: $ 743.53 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss for Week: $ 3.98 (.5% weekly decrease)

A pretty flat week. It 's too bad that we had such great profits at the beginning of the week and gave up most of them. At least we held the loss to less than a percent for the week.

Here's to next week.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Friday, April 25, 2008

Owning the Euro is decidedly less fun now! - IFCN Wk 20 -Fri- Equity: $773.80

Since yesterday, the Euro has continued to drop determinedly versus the dollar.

Also, there are rumblings that the Fed may not lower interest rates any further.  That doesn't help the Euro either, with the strong possibility that the European community may have to lower rates and lose value to the greenback.

A note about OneNightStand orders for this week and the future, until further notice:

*****  DUE TO INCREASED VOLATILITY, PROTECTIVE STOP PLACEMENT FOR OneNightStand ORDERS ARE NOW EXPANDED TO 100 PIPS, UP FROM 55 PIPS!

Reduce position size proportionately! Overall profitability should remain the same, but trade efficiency should increase.

Current equity: $773.80.

The weekly recap will follow later after the market closes for Friday.

Have a great weekend!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com


Thursday, April 24, 2008

Euro is being Abandoned! - IFCN Wk 20 -Thu- Equity: $780.67

The Euro is getting sold.  

The Euro took out the last two weeks trading action versus the dollar after a German IFO survey showed corporations' sentiment wasn't as positive as expected in April.

It made many of the holders of Euros less certain it would maintain its strength against all comers.

The weakening IFO data could open the possibility for cuts in the European interest rates, something that hasn't happened yet because they thought it might prove inflationary.

The big deal is this-- the bulk of Fed rate cuts have already been accomplished and the majority of ECB cuts are directly ahead.

And, with the Fed moving to a relatively neutral stance and a drop in jobless claims, the dollar is showing that the economy has hit a strength that it can sustain.

We likely just saw "the top" in the Euro for a while.
-----

I've mentioned over previous weeks that too much negative news on the dollar has not resulted in new lows on the entire basket of currencies. Yes, the Euro has held up the best in recent times, but unrealistically so, likely due to biased reporting of business news.

The Eur/Usd, Usd/Chf, and Usd/Jpy FirstStrike trades have bit the dust. I didn't have much hope for them anyway, but taking the trades is what we do here.

The short Gbp/Usd and Gbp/Jpy are working nicely.

The following were our 5 weekly FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5883, stopped out @ 1.5823.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 206.91, trade still in progress....
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9958, trade still in progress....
  • Usd/Chf: short @ 1.0120, stopped out @ 1.0180.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 103.31, stopped out @ 103.91.

Current equity level is $780.67.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com



Wednesday, April 23, 2008

A Real Standoff! IFCN Wk 20 -Wed- Equity: $792.16

We are still in all of our FirstStrike trades from Monday.

What is amazing is this,  our total equity hasn't changed much but the positions have evened out a bit to their profitability.  The Gbp/Usd and Gbp/Jpy have given up some of their profits which seem to have moved into the Eur/Usd, Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy trades.

It has turned into an interesting week, seeing which pairs might actually become the big winners, if any.

Current equity is $792.16.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, April 21, 2008

It Isn't Luck! IFCN Wk 20 -Mon- Equity: $801.06

We just take the trades....

FirstStrike entered all 5 of the markets we placed our orders. The first ones to hit were the short trades of GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. They executed their orders, dropped like a rock and stopped for nothing.

Just the way I like to see a trade, because they can be the absolute best ones. Most people are uncomfortable with a “straightline” trade because it gives virtually no second chance to get in good. Either you get the trade or you don't.

People easily get used to the markets oscillating a lot and get lulled into the expectation that they will have a few chances to get in at a given price or even better.

Weekly breakouts can be very quick in the early hours of the morning.  It is important to place your orders as soon as possible.

All 5 trades have profits as I write this, with large profits in the Sterling pairs and minor profits in the others.

It looks like our drawdown is beginning to end. And the Dollar is beginning to gain on other currencies.

I find it hard to believe that all of our trades entered will be profitable by the end of the week. The Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd tend to be correlated but we are long the former and short the later.

The following are our 5 FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5883, stop 1.5823.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 206.91, stop 207.81.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9958, stop 2.0018.
  • Usd/Chf: short @ 1.0120, stop 1.0180.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 103.31, stop 103.91.

Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $801.06.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sunday, April 20, 2008

-- IFCN Wk 19 -Fri- Equity: $747.51

All the news released this week tends to indicate that there is a lot of demand for dollar denominated products manufactured in America and its possessions. The export boom that US manufacturers are enjoying is continuing at a greater pace for companies like Caterpillar Inc., Terex Corp, and the U.S. unit of Siemens Corp.

Don't be surprised if the dollar gains a little strength in the near future.

Here is the recap of our trading week--

The data below is as of Friday's close, April 18, 2008:

We had no OneNightStand trades executed on Friday.

Start of week equity: $ 759.67

Completed FirstStrike trades:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5757, exited Friday @ 1.5807 for 50 pip profit.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 198.19, stopped out @ 199.09 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: long @ 1.9764, stopped out @ 1.9704 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: short @ .9987, stopped out @ 1.0047 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 100.41, stopped out @ 101.01 for a 60 pip loss.
Total of 270 pips in losses.
Total of 50 pips in profits.
Net loss: 220 pips

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 04/14/08:
-None-
OneNightStand 04/18/08 entries:
-None-

Unrealized P&L: $ 0.00
End of week equity: $ 747.51 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss on Week: $ 12.16 (1.6% weekly decrease)

Another moderate losing week. These drawdowns seem to last awhile when you are enduring them.

We will endure.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Friday, April 18, 2008

The Problem of Curve-Fitting -IFCN Wk 19 -Fri- Equity: $753.25

I have received a number of emails from readers over the past few months concerning whether one could improve the results of systems like FirstStrike or One Night Stand by optimizing.

If one tests all possible combinations of variables in a trading system you can always find a combination of parameters that, if used in the past, would provide a better return than the parameters currently being traded.

I ran across a joke that illustrates well the reality of optimization.

-----Thanks to Mark Richards - USA.

One day while walking down the street a highly successful HR (Human Resources) Director was tragically hit by a bus and she died. Her soul arrived up in heaven where she was met at the Pearly Gates by St. Peter himself.

"Welcome to Heaven," said St. Peter. "Before you get settled in though, it seems we have a problem. You see, strangely enough, we've never once had a Human Resources Director make it this far and we're not really sure what to do with you."

"No problem, just let me in," said the woman. "Well, I'd like to," replied St. Peter, "but I have higher orders. What we're going to do is let you have a day in Hell and a day in Heaven and then you can choose whichever one you want to spend an eternity in."

"Actually, I think I've made up my mind, I prefer to stay in Heaven," said the woman.

"Sorry, we have rules..." And with that St. Peter put the executive in an elevator and it went down-down-down to hell. The doors opened and she found herself stepping out onto the putting green of a beautiful golf course. In the distance was a country club and standing in front of her were all her friends - fellow executives that she had worked with and they were all dressed in evening gowns and cheering for her. They ran up and kissed her on both cheeks and they talked about old times. They played an excellent round of golf and at night went to the country club where she enjoyed an excellent steak and lobster dinner. She met the Devil who was actually a really nice guy (kinda cute) and she had a great time telling jokes and dancing. She was having such a good time that before she knew it, it was time to leave. Everybody shook her hand and waved good-bye as she got on the elevator. The elevator went up-up-up and opened back up at the Pearly Gates and she found St. Peter waiting for her.

"Now it's time to spend a day in heaven," he said. So she spent the next 24 hours lounging around on clouds and playing the harp and singing. She had a great time and before she knew it her 24 hours were up and St. Peter came and got her. "So, you've spent a day in hell and you've spent a day in heaven. Now you must choose your eternity," he said. The woman paused for a second and then replied, "Well, I never thought I'd say this, I mean, Heaven has been really great and all, but I think I had a better time in Hell." So St. Peter escorted her to the elevator and again she went down-down-down back to Hell.

When the doors of the elevator opened she found herself standing in a desolate wasteland covered in garbage and filth. She saw her friends were dressed in rags and were picking up the garbage and putting it in sacks. The Devil came up to her and put his arm around her. "I don't understand," stammered the woman, "yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and a country club and we ate lobster and we danced and had a great time. Now all there is, is a wasteland of garbage and all my friends look miserable."

The Devil looked at her and smiled. "Yesterday we were recruiting you, today you're staff..."


Accept optimization at your own risk.

---FirstStrike Positions---
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5757, stop 1.5697. Currently still alive for a 100+ pip profit.
(Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.)

Later today we will have a recap for the week.

I don't think we are going to be elected on any ONS trades, but the orders are in anyway.

Current equity is $753.25.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!




Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Fed doesn't like the condition of our economy, Buy Euros! IFCN Wk 19 -Wed- Equity: $757.69

Apparently the U.S. economy is not too good right now, according to the Fed's most recent report on conditions, with conditions getting worse across the the nation.

Consumer spending is down, job numbers are declining and manufacturing is holding its own, according to the Fed's Beige Book, the compilation of gossip from its 12 regional banks.

Three said there was no apparent change. Nine of the 12 said the economy was worse in April than in March.

---A BRIGHT SPOT---

The weak dollar is itself the bonus in the report.

Foreign visitors apparently now are streaming to the United States to take advantage of the cheap prices of goods and services here relative to their own countries. Manufacturers in the USA are finding their products more competitive overseas.  

Might that mean a better economy right down the road?  Yes.

Personally, I think the governors were depressed because of the April 15th tax deadline. How could you be making all the money they do and think rationally for the Beige Book deliberations knowing you have to pay huge taxes too?

Just my opinion. I could be wrong! Do you think they really pay taxes?

---FirstStrike Positions---
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5757, stop 1.5697. Currently still alive for a large 175+ pip profit.
(Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.)

I am amazed at how well the Euro has done again this week. It single-handedly is keeping the Forex Challenge account from a more serious drawdown. More power to it.

Current equity is $757.69.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!


Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Euro is trying hard to show a strong face, but..., -- IFCN Wk 19 -Tue- Equity: $741.12

FirstStrike entered all 5 of the markets we follow. One by one all the trades have gotten stopped out except the Eur/Usd. Very like last week.

I wouldn't give great odds on the Eur/Usd trade surviving this week. Then again, I wasn't that confident about last week's Euro trade either.

It should be very difficult for the Euro to remain strong when the other major pairs are losing out to the dollar.

This doesn't mean that the dollar is now going to be a strong currency in the future. But it isn't out of the ordinary for a weak market to to have a “dead cat bounce”. Such a bounce could last anywhere from weeks to months. Not years.

Meanwhile, our drawdown continues.

The great thing about trading systems like
FirstStrike and One Night Stand is the fact that after you get stopped out for the week, that is about as bad as it should get.

And you always have next week.

We got 5 FirstStrike entries and are still alive, as mentioned above-- in the long Eur/Usd.
  • Eur/Usd:   long   @ 1.5757,  stop 1.5697. Currently in for small profit.
  • Gbp/Jpy:   short @ 198.19, stopped out @ 199.09 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd:  long   @ 1.9764, stopped out @ 1.9704 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf:   short @   .9987,  stopped out @ 1.0047 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy:   short @ 100.41, stopped out @ 101.01 for a 60 pip los

Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

-----Until Further Notice!!!-----

DUE TO INCREASED SPREAD COSTS AND VOLATILITY, BUY/SELL ORDERS AND STOP PLACEMENT ARE NOW EXPANDED IN GBP/JPY—

This means 75 pip breakout orders, and 90 pip stops. Reduce position size proportionately!

As previously pointed out in the FirstStrike system material, the +/- volatility breakout figures being used in all of the currency pairs in this challenge are not “magic” numbers.

With the recent increase in Japanese Yen volatility and the general expansion of spreads when the markets feel threatened, the breakout/stop numbers will be increased in the GBP/JPY as dictated above. Overall profitability should remain similar, and at the same time be friendlier to equity swings.

Someday we can discuss the actual size of market “noise” and its affect on trading systems. It not only hurts your potential. You can harness it to help your trading too.

Current equity is $741.12.


Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sunday, April 13, 2008

Choppy Week! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Fri- Equity: $759.67

There really wasn't much to talk about this week. No important news or reactions to anything worldwide. So we really got lots of chop.

Even if I wasn't trading this week, I would have been able to tell what the market was like from the types of calls I got from other traders.  People were not as focused as usual.  Small, insignificant details were drawing away their attention.  And they were all experiencing unnecessary losses.
 
If you ever start losing your focus, be aware of the danger to your trading prowess.  You only have a small edge in trading, don't expand your trading at the worst times.

Stick to methods you trust and don't get sucked into the meaningless action of choppy markets.

On to a recap of our trading week--

We had no OneNightStand trades executed.

The data below is as of Friday's close, April 11, 2008:

This week's Alpha account trading recap:
Start of week equity: $ 783.77

Completed FirstStrike trades:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5717, exited @ 1.5821 for 104 pip profit
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 204.32, stopped out @ 203.72 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9843, stopped out @ 1.9903 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0168, stopped out @ 1.0108 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 101.96, stopped out @ 102.56 for a 60 pip loss
Total of 240 pips in losses.
Total of 104 pips in profits.
Net loss: 136 pips

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 04/07/08:
-None-
OneNightStand 04/11/08 entries:
None- No trades entered

Unrealized P&L: $ 0.00
End of week equity: $ 759.67 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss on Week: $ 24.10 (3.07% weekly decrease)

So, we had another losing week. Drawdowns are part of the trading equation. You do get used to it if you trade for years.

It sometimes takes the markets a while to digest all the divergent news. Then they start their trending ways again.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, April 10, 2008

One FirstStrike Trade Soldiers On! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Thu- Equity: $761.20

 The Eur/Usd bought @ 1.5717 is still profitable.  And there is a possibility of a OneNightStand trade in the Eur/Usd today.

Current equity is $761.20.  Not a great week, but we take the trades we have.

The OneNightStand orders went out and are as follows:
  • eur/usd:  BUY 1.5914, stop 1.5859.
  • gbp/jpy: SELL 197.01, stop 197.56.
  • gbp/usd: SELL 1.9651, stop 1.9706.
  • usd/chf: SELL .9871, stop .9926.
  • usd/jpy: SELL 99.11, stop 99.66.
In all of the above orders, if the trade entered is not stopped out on the day of entry, exit Monday morning,  00:00 CST.

It has been a few weeks since we had an ONS trade.  We have a couple possibles for Friday.

We'll have a weekly recap Friday!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, April 9, 2008

One Lone FirstStrike Trade Soldiers On! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Wed- Equity: $768.60

One FirstStrike trade is still going. The Eur/Usd bought @ 1.5717 with a stoploss @ 1.5657 is profitable and near all-time historic highs.

I am actually surprised that we had the one holdout. The other pairs have been exceptionally choppy this week, until today. If you traded frequently this week it is likely you lost more than average.

When the markets are trying to digest new market conditions, the primary losers are the shorter term participants.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2008 growth estimates for the US by almost one percentage point. They believe the dollar's weakness is certain to encourage other currencies to attain prominence, primarily the Euro, which we've been witnessing the past few weeks.

The Fed has slashed its rates by a total of 300 basis points since late last year to ease credit concerns and recharge the economy. The Fed is expected to further lower rates by 50 basis points this month, which should weaken the dollar a bit more.

The great thing about being a trader is--- the trends of the monetary systems force trends in the currencies. We almost are forced to make money if we manage our resources and are willing to take precise robust trades.

See you tomorrow!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!



Tuesday, April 8, 2008

The US dollar Isn't Alone! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Tue- Equity: $749.10

The dollar is not the only currency under pressure anymore.

The Gbp/Usd is getting hammered after housing data in the UK indicates that their economy is not as rock solid as they've been trumpeting.

The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates Thursday, which is a possible “buy the fact” event--- and the market is starting to price in the possibility of even more severe interest rate cuts down the road.

Finally, the rest of the press is catching on to the idea that other major countries besides the US are experiencing difficulties and that their currencies are susceptible to decline. Now they acknowledge that continental Europe's Euro currency could fall relative to the dollar. I'm sure they would be secretly happy about it. It is tough getting priced out of the world markets for the few things you actually do produce.

I finally got a FirstStrike Usd/Jpy trade, which subsequently got stopped out. Either the Eur/Usd must rally like mad or this will be a losing week.

FirstStrike Trade Status this Week:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5717, stop 1.5657. Trade still in progress----
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 204.32, stopped out @ 203.72 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9843, stopped out @ 1.9903 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0168, stopped out @ 1.0108 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 101.96, stopped out @ 102.56 for a 60 pip loss.
-----NOTE: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.-----

Current equity is $749.10.

Have a good evening.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, April 7, 2008

The Quick and the Dead! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Mon- Equity: $755.34

It is great that the weather is generally improving around the US. Spring is getting here, but in Minnesota today, it was a nasty cold one! The warmth from late last week disappeared, and showed us we have to be patient for the good weather.

The weather is just like the markets we've been trading. Nothing great comes easy!

We got 4 quick FirstStrike entries today and are still alive in 1 of them with a small profit, in the long Eur/Usd. I don't have real high hopes for it though. The remaining pair to enter a trade for the week, the Usd/Jpy-- is at a key price juncture and has the potential to be a solid trade where ever it decides to go.

  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5717, stop 1.5657. Currently in for small profit.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 204.32, stopped out @ 203.72 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9843,  stopped out @ 1.9903 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0168, stopped out @ 1.0108 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Jpy: No Trade Yet!
  • Buy order:    Buy 102.96, stop 102.36.
  • Sell order:     Sell 101.96, stop 102.56.
-----NOTE: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.-----

Current equity is $755.34.

Have a good evening.

Maybe we'll get a good Usd/Jpy trade.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Friday, April 4, 2008

Non-Farm Payroll Surprise? Not really.... -- IFCN Wk 17 -Fri- Equity: $783.77

The big news today was the first-Friday-of-the-month Non Farm payroll report.

According to today's Labor Department report, the US economy lost 80,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March. Some forecasters had predicted an even larger loss.

February and March payrolls were revised downward by 67,000 jobs for a total cumulative loss of 152,000 jobs.

Friday's report is the first time since June of 2003 that the American economy lost jobs three months straight, and the 80,000 decline was the biggest loss of that size since March of 2003.

The unemployment rate, moved up to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent in February. That was the highest rate since September of 2005.

This news was obviously well-anticipated by the market, seen from the action that transpired after the news broke. The Eur/Usd popped up, then shot down, then snapped back up..., staying within a narrow range for the rest of the day. All in all the market closed within 15 pips of where it was seconds before the report.

NOTE: I consider all of this talk about recession and bad economy “much ado about nothing”. Most countries in the European community would give their right eye for a 5.1 percent unemployment figure. And they have socialized medicine and governments which are anything but small.

What is not recognized by much of the world, and even many Americans who watch these figures and the news like a hawk to figure out what is really going on – is this: a huge portion of the “employed” Americans have more than one job. These over-employed Americans are extremely industrious people, creative beyond all parallel in the world because they actually have a system which rewards them if they come up with something new and innovative. If their excess productivity was measured against the non-productivity of the unemployed, there would be less concern about the NFP numbers the last few months.

Why do people in other countries who invent some cool device or technology immediately come to the US? Because they can get paid here for their brilliance. Relatively quickly, too.

I am not being a nationalist or chest-beater by saying this. They are the self-evident facts. Even though it gets to be a little “dog-eat-dog” sometimes, at least it is interesting here and you can meet some real innovators starting a world-beating company right down the street at the coffee shop.

On to a recap of our trading week--

We had no ONS trades executed.

The data below is as of Friday's close, April 4, 2008:

This week's Alpha account trading recap:
Start of week equity: $ 827.35

Completed FirstStrike trades:

Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5842, stopped out @ 1.5782 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Jpy: short @ 198.28, stopped out @ 198.88 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9875, stopped out @ 1.9935 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Chf: short @ .9913, stopped out @ .9973 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Jpy: short @ 99.27, stopped out @ 99.87 for a 60 pip loss

Total of 300 pips in losses.
Total of 0 pips in profits.
Net gain: 0 pips in profits.

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 03/31/08:
-None-
OneNightStand 04/04/08 entries:
None- No trades entered

Unrealized P&L: $ 0.00
End of week equity: $ 783.77 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss on Week: $ 43.58 (5.2% weekly decrease)

It was nice we didn't lose more. The markets were definitely choppy.

Have a good weekend. Next week should be better!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com


PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Attention: Readers, and Nancy Pelosi --CORRECTION--

Attention: Readers, and Nancy Pelosi

The post of April 2, 2008 about Pelosi and specific statements attributed to her about wanting to tax 401K's – and just about anything else..., were in error. Huge error.

I normally do not check websites like http://www.snopes.com before I post a newsletter with information I get from a "trusted" source. That will change now.

I got an email about Nancy Pelosi and her views from a friend who has ALWAYS had his facts straight in our past dealings. He got blindsided and therefore, so did I.

While I wouldn't be at all surprised if the statements attributed to her parallell her actual feelings, the current facts are that it is a hoax info letter that has been making the rounds for a very long time. I will check my "facts" more clearly in the future.

I am very sorry, Nancy.

I will really check my facts before posting anything like that again!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com





Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Nancy Peloski to the Rescue!!! --IFCN Wk 17 -Tue- Equity: $783.77

Still out of the market, waiting for Friday.

The dollar has gotten stronger vs. the Japanese Yen.

After a correction today in the Eur/Usd, the dollar seems to be gaining again here too.

Since this Friday is the Non-Farm Payroll event, it is likely to have large potential because of the major flows of capital from bonds to stocks and from one currency's assets to another's.

Thursday will likely be a set-up day for Friday, and not be too directional. It will be interesting to see if we have any opportunities in OneNightStand this week.

-----(What follows is incorrect information that I received from a previously trusted source.  Comments follow below....)

On another note, but in many ways more important..., just when you thought you've heard it all for the time being....

The powers that be think you need a GREAT BIG TAX on investments they said they would never tax you on.

That's what the Speaker of the House is saying. Read on---

Nancy Pelosi wants a Windfall Tax on Retirement Income! 

Madam speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to put a Windfall Tax on all stock market profits (including Retirement funds, 401Ks and Mutual Funds!) Unfortunately, it is true - all done for the premise to help out the 12 million illegal immigrants and other unemployed minorities!

If this was a joke, it would be in poor taste.

She stated: “We need to work toward the goal of equalizing income in our country and at the same time limiting the amount the rich can invest.”

When asked how these new tax dollars would be spent, she replied: “We need to raise the standard of living of our poor, unemployed and minorities. For example, we have an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in our country who need our help along with millions of unemployed minorities. Stock market windfall profits taxes could go a long ways to guarantee these people the standard of living they would like to have as “Americans”."

Adding a tax to your retirement is simply another way of saying to the American people, “You're so stupid that we're going to keep doing this until we take every cent from you, that is-- the workers.”

(I have added an additional correction post. I was blindsided because my trusted information source was blindsided. But this goes to show me and probably others, you have to check the "facts" we are presented with every day which we usually accept and build upon. http://www.snopes.com is a great resource to check news related and especially internet promoted information. Again, sorry for the inaccuracy! I now trust even fewer people!)

My only recommendation is the following: Learn to make profits from these serious new trends, and bank them in something that is really secure. The surest thing we can count on is MORE OF THE SAME!

Have a good evening and new day!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!





Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Eur/Usd has a double top! More Downside likely -- IFCN Wk 17 -Mon- Equity: $783.77

I got stopped out of this week's final two FirstStrike pairs, the short Gbp/Jpy and the short Usd/Chf. That makes all five FirstStrike trades concluded for the week with a total of 300 pips loss.

Current equity is $783.77. I will wait patiently for some possible OneNightStand trades this weekend.

The Euro/Usd does appear to have double-topped at the $1.59 area as I thought it should. Financially, I have profited highly from that view this week.

Finally, others are beginning to see cracks in the Euro. Its problems have only recently been receiving some press, as it has been oh so stylish to bash the US dollar. Even if it has deserved much of the drubbing. The Euro is a currency held by a group of countries who have less technological inspiration, less productivity, higher unemployment, higher taxes and are more Socialized than the country that uses the US dollar. This is a worldwide economy and very difficult for one continent to power on with out help from similar continental economies.

In no way is this a put-down at non-US countries. I personally would prefer living in many of them rather than most places in the States. But ignoring the facts about real values does no one any credit either.

I willingly sell the dollar if that is the way it must travel. And buy it if it is regaining value versus inflated views of other currencies.

Traders can afford no financial loyalty to a country's currency values except privately. As traders, we have no control over the macro issues, so must agree with the market's stance on the value of our personal currency.

Back to my statement about it being difficult for major economies to succeed without help.... I do not believe that the economies here in the States or in Europe are all that bad. I believe the negativity is WAY overhyped.

People are all eating. They are driving to work, and working when they get there. They are still buying stuff. They are grumbling. Grumbling is good. People will grumble when they don't have everything they want. But wanting things they don't have makes people creative. Being creative is good.

When people quit grumbling is when you should worry.

See you tomorrow.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com