Saturday, May 31, 2008

Currencies Have Feet of Clay!-- IFCN Wk 25 -Fri- Equity: $730.23

Traders have long lived on the profits from market moves that are predicated by simple concepts, the simplest of which follow below:

The cure for a low price is a low price. The cure for a high price is a high price.

It may take a second or two to get the concept of this but it is really very simple. Have a lot of something, like – wheat, like we did in the 1990's because everyone and their uncle grew it-- and you have low prices.

As long as everyone keeps growing the same amount of wheat the price will stay low. Eventually someone decided that they could grow chickpeas or something else in Canada than wheat and make a heck of a lot more money. Partly due to the inept behavior of the Canadian Wheat board (socialism at its best!) and market pressures, Canada barely grows any wheat where they can grow something else. Entire sections of a great land that only grew wheat 15 years ago, now grow no wheat.    (Side note:  I absolutely love Canada.  My oldest trading partner is in Regina and we've talked 5 - 10 times a day for more than 20 years.  I know almost as much about the Canadian government as my own!  They're both hopelessly screwed up!)
 
The rule worked its magic.

This year we saw the wheat that is grown in Canada and northern US states hit over $23/bushel when just a few years ago it was $3/bushel. It wouldn't have helped Canadians much because of their Board but it sure helped the free trade economy enjoyed by the northern wheat states. A lot of brand new machinery is hitting the fields this year.

What else do you think is happening in wheat country as I write this? Anybody who can grow hard red spring wheat (HRSI)..., is!

The surest way to get a bull market is from an oversupply. The surest way to a bear market is from scarcity.

When crude oil 7 years ago was flirting with $10/barrel, it was depressed because the countries who produced oil needed money so bad they overproduced without any prompting from the industrialized countries, or polite requests from President Bush.

That helped the US and Europe build up strong economies because they could turn the energy of the oil into products and services that had a better than average profit margin. That is what the roaring '90's was all based on, cheap fuel and cheap products relative to correct value.

Now the shoe has been on the other foot for a while, and nobody in the buying lane likes the high input costs of oil. Whether the oil producers realized it or not (very likely not!) they inadvertantly created the huge bull market and generous current prices created by the initial oversupply. (About President Bush's recent request for increased oil production-- He knew it would make no difference, but everyone uninformed about the oil situation thought he should ask. Oil will fall just fine on its own.)

What do you think is happening in oil countries the world over with $130/barrel oil? They pump oil, not to stick on the shelf or in a tank to look at, but to sell. (Imagine what kind of a bear market you can get when you start with abnormally high prices and no real scarcity!)

The current moves in the forex market are no strangers to these bull/bear market rules.

When you have an overproduction of a currency such as dollars; a low price area is guaranteed. In this case, the situation isn't that dollar production is stopping or slowing.

Expensive currencies currently dominate countries where the economies are slowing.

If you are a holder of large quantities of these overpriced currencies you are not able to get reasonable return for the risk of holding them any longer. You then increase your return by buying the easily available cheap dollars and send them back to the USA and buy REITs or stocks or real estate or businesses that actually provide RETURNS much greater than available in Europe.

The dollar is thus forced into an uptrend because of the demand for return, and the dollar is the vehicle to access the returns.

It isn't so much the dollar being strong- it is more the fact that the other major currencies aren't seen as bullet-proof anymore. That's because bull markets usually take prices a little too far and bear markets drop a little too much.

We will likely see the dollar get a bit stronger for some months, with a lot of volatility while the world gets used to the situation.
__________________

Here's this week's recap:

The data below is as of Friday's close, May 30, 2008:

No OneNightStand trades were executed today.

Start of week equity: $697.89

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 05/26/08:
None

Completed FirstStrike trades this week:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5810, stopped out at 1.5750 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 205.53, exited Friday @ 208.85 for 332 pips profit
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9770, stopped out at 1.9830 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0311, exited Friday @ 1.0422 for 111 pips profit
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 103.82, exited Friday @ 105.43 for a 161 pips profit
Total losses: 120 pips
Total profits: 604 pips
Net profits: 484 pips

OneNightStand 05/30/08 entry(s):
-None-

Unrealized Losses: -0-
End of week equity: $730.23 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Gain for Week: $ 32.34 (4.6% weekly increase)

---Two birds with one stone---

About the extreme delay this week in sending the OneNightStand orders that I typically send out early every Friday morning after midnight CST. ( I sent the orders out 12 hours late!)

They are not mechanized. It is me at the switch sending out the emails. Which works for a mild-mannered control freak trained by markets.

I thought I had every contingency covered.

This week I intended to send the ONS orders from an upstate hotel I was staying at while visiting a sick friend. I brought my trading computer with me, with a backup computer – in case! The hotel I stayed at was remote but had great internet access every other time I've stayed there. Shortly before zero hour when I send out the emails, the hotel server gave it up. There was nowhere within 50 miles to get hooked up reliably and for some reason my standby dialup which I still keep for emergencies couldn't be accessed through the hotel's phone system.

I paid for a man to come out and fix the server the next morning. He did, I got my quotes and sent out the emails.

It is good this happened for a couple reasons. You'll get a free education in something you absolutely need to know and I get a point rammed home to me for the hundredth time.

First, all of you who are actually trading FirstStrike and OneNightStand have the rules for the systems and you can (and did) calculate the orders for yourself. Congratulations! And I would have called some of you to give me the orders so I could call in my trades, if I didn't already have a guy on retainer who gave me the prices I needed. (Note: Keep the telephone number of your trading firm in your billfold.)

Second, this is a perfect example of why you have to anticipate every possible contingency for your continued trading.

Fortunately, for me, there were no ONS trades--- but there could have been the mother-of-all -rades that could virtually make the year, and I could have missed it without backups. The thing is, I wouldn't be minding so much about missing an opportunity for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge account.

It would be financially devastating for ME personally! I trade for a living and missing big trades is not what makes the money come in. In my personal account I put on enough size on ONS trades to make a huge dent in my year if I miss the BIG ONE! It is a great trade and I don't miss it and others which are powered off the same principles.

I got some nice emails and some from new people who said in essence, “what's the idea with sending the ONS trades so late...? I did not intend this to be construed as a signal service.

By the way, that is another good reason why you should never rely on signal services. What if they should quit and you don't know how they get their signals? Fortunately, you can always figure out the signals for the trades IFCN follows.

Best wishes on your weekend.

May we have another good week next week? It's possible!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Up! Forex Challenge Account is UP 7.5% This Week on Strong Dollar! -- IFCN Wk 25 -Thu- Equity: $750.12

Nine weeks ago we were hitting new equity highs for the IFC account. It looked for a while like the upside move of the Eur/Usd would never end. But of course, we knew it would have to. And we profited until it quit.

That was then – this is now! After a couple of months of chop and drawdowns, we are beginning to see some life in the account again.

We are sitting on larger gains due to huge moves this week in the Usd/Chf, Usd/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy all trades with a positive carry. The next few weeks should be interesting for dollar carry trades!

The Gbp/Usd has been sideways this week and it is appropriate that it got stopped out. It is a shame the FirstStrike long Eur/Usd order got triggered first and we didn't get short for the big move down. Some of you have reported that you took the short anyway, and I'm glad you did. In my other accounts I got short Euros early Tuesday, so I am not unhappy with the week's performance.
_____________________

Everything is a trade-off in trading.

It would have been a much bigger week in the IFC account if the position sizes were as aggressive as a normal week. My money management does not allow the same size positions when the potential time in the trade is less than average. Holiday weeks get less money. So we are making less money, but with substantially less risk also. That is the trade off.

No problem. If these markets keep moving, it will be hard for us to not profit proportionately.

We are still long 3 FirstStrike trades from Tuesday-
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 205.53, stop 204.63. Trade still in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0311, stop 1.0251. Trade still in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 103.82, stop 103.22. Trade still in progress.
Current equity is $750.12.

The market may set back some. And possibly we may get some ONS trades for Friday. My only concern about the ONS trades that might get elected is that most of the move for the week may be already expended.

ONS requires continued momentum for its trades to work well. Tomorrow will be another opportunity to see how the systems fare.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Want a Carry Trade? Buy the Dollar! IFCN Wk 25 -Wed- Equity: $712.05

Current “carry trade” examples:
  1. Buying the Usd/Chf: Interest rate differential is 2.75%= $ 6.31/day/100,000 unit position.
  2. Buying the Usd/Jpy: Interest rate differential is 4.75% = $11.04/day/100,000 unit position.
This means, if you can hold a 100,000 unit position of Usd/Jpy for a WHOLE YEAR using $4,000.00 margin (with some firms you could hold that position with $2K or some even $1K) you could gain over $4,029 in interest alone, generating a 100% return. Any directional gain on the contract would be bonus, while any move counter to the long position would cost you $10/pip.

When carry trades work, they are a terrific way to virtually mint money. Primarily hedge funds mine this opportunity.

Do you think the dollar is going to hold this area and/or move higher for the next year?  If so, you have a fantastic opportunity facing you right now.  (But, what if it doesn't gain all that much, or hold that long?  What indication will you use to realize that the dollar is done going up?)

The dollar is making a lot of gains over weaker major currencies right now due in part to commodities (most of which are dollar denominated, like oil) dropping in price – and, the major currencies themselves being ridiculously overdone. Especially when the problems in these developed countries are just becoming identified, while the US is beginning to stabilize.

We can see many possibilities of carry trades beginning to “work”. In addition to the pairs mentioned above, the GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY and EUR/CHF are all viable with the current trends and economic conditions. Expect to hear much more in the future about them.  Be careful.

T-Bonds and eurodollar interest rate contracts have been falling demonstrably this week. That indicates smart money is thinking that the US is going to have higher interest rates in the near future and that makes the dollar more competitive. And something that big funds finally want to own versus the other currencies they've been carrying.

I will make one solitary point, and those who get it – get it. Those who don't yet, will eventually, when they are poorer.

When the US Fed can't maintain a low interest field of battle any longer, it being the only agency on earth who has the clout and sheer money-ballooning ability to do it, the game of artificial low interest rates in the world is over.

The game will then be leveraging against whoever has the cheapest money to spread against.

The best way of profiting long term from this whole mess is by learning how to short bonds and other interest rate instruments with low risk methods. Take a look at the December 2010 Eurodollar weekly chart below. (As prices fall it indicates higher anticipated interest rates. Look out below!)

____________________

The following 3 FirstStrike trades this week are still in play- and they are all “carry trades” too.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 205.53, stop 204.63. (90 pip risk) Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0311, stop 1.0251, trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 103.82, stop 103.22, trade in progress.

It is nice to see some forward progress this week.

Current equity is $712.05.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Post-Holiday Lurch Fails!- IFCN Wk 25 -Tue- Equity: $693.25

I hope that everyone had a restful Memorial Day holiday. We had some company over the holiday weekend, and much discussion and adroit partaking of flavorful food with complementary beverages ensued.

In addition, I wish to welcome the 33 new subscribers who found this blog over the extended weekend. Happy to have you aboard. A couple of you have Yahoo addresses that won't allow emails to them. Too bad.  Check the P.S.

The week started off with a last upward lurch to the Eur/Usd and oil prices with no follow through, so far.

Today, crude oil dropped over $3/barrel to $128.85. The dollar got stronger across the board, with the Eur/Usd dropping 90 pips from Friday's close. The correlation continues between the euro and oil.

Since there weren't any OneNightStand trades taken on Friday, there were no exits on Monday morning after the holiday.

On Monday, we entered the short Gbp/Usd @ 1.9770 and got stopped out relatively quickly for a 60 pip loss. Then, this morning we got hit on the buy order in the Eur/Usd @ 1.5810 and got stopped out quickly at 1.5750 for a 60 pip loss. The remaining 3 FirstStrike entries listed below are still in progress.

The following are our 5 FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5810, stopped out at 1.5750 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 205.53, stop 204.63. (90 pip risk) Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9770, stopped out at 1.9830 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0311, stop 1.0251, trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 103.82, stop 103.22, trade in progress.
Note: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

We have some potential for decent profits yet this week. It would be nice to have a few extended moves. The rest of the week awaits!

Current equity is $693.25.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Friday, May 23, 2008

Maybe We Can Burn The Euro! -IFCN Wk 24 -Fri- Equity: $697.89

The dollar fell against 13 of the 16 most active currencies this week while oil hit a record $135.09 a barrel Thursday on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The U.S. still imports more oil than any other country.

Oil prices closed for the holiday weekend $3.00 a barrel below yesterday's highs.

Is oil going to keep streaming higher?

Maybe, but it is wise to remember this trading fact. The best bull markets are demand based rallies. Demand has been dropping in Europe and the US for a couple of years and China's demand is drastically slowing.

If they held a lottery and you were the winner of a supertanker load of gasoline, with the proviso that you had to get the 50,000,000 gallons off the ship and into storage somewhere within a month or lose the fuel-- you would lose the fuel. There is nowhere for you to put it because all storage facilities are full. Ask around.

Are there any lines at the fuel pumps where you live?

This oil move has all the earmarks of a classic “squeeze”. We have gone up $50 a barrel since the middle of January in a commodity which is in the lowest demand in years, and is easily obtained. 7 years ago they could all but give it away.

I know a woman in Texas who right after 9/11 was handed 60 (worthless at the time) micro-production wells instead of a final paycheck from a bankrupt firm, who now makes $3 million a year from the 1 – 2 barrel-a-day wells.

Yeah, there's no oil out there.

If you would like to hedge future production for many years to come at very high prices, I couldn't think of a better way to do it that what I see in the oil market today.

Why the discussion about oil? The greatest outlay in the world for any material goods is for energy, a market currently dominated by oil. Have no oil, it is tough to operate most countries. Although Japan's got something good going with their nuclear initiative.

An interesting sidelight to this energy situation is, the correlation between the up and down movements of oil prices and the eur/usd on a daily basis has been at 95% for the last 12 months.

It was still in harmony this week, with the eur/usd closing near the high of the week before the long weekend. Many blamed reports for creating uncertainty in the markets for the rocky action this week, but it is simply the weakest hands exhibiting fear. The coming weeks could very well be a make or break period in the oil markets, and by extension, the Eur/Usd.
____________________
Here's this week's recap--

The data below is as of Friday's close, May 23, 2008:

No OneNightStand trades were executed today.

Start of week equity: $734.36

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 05/19/08:
None

Completed FirstStrike trades this week:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5614, stopped out at 1.5554 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 203.24, stopped out at 204.14 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: long @ 1.9612, stopped out at 1.9552 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: short @ 1.0432, stopped out at 1.0492 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 103.78, stopped out at 104.38 for a 60 pip loss.
Total losses: 330 pips
Total profits: 0 pips
Net loss: 330 pips

OneNightStand 05/23/08 entry(s):
-None-

Unrealized Losses: -0-
End of week equity: $ 697.89 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss for Week: $ 36.47 (4.9% weekly decrease)

The quick losses at the beginning of the week made it seem very short. I don't mind that. More excitement for the future.

In America we have a long holiday weekend, Memorial Day. The holiday commemorates all of the U.S. men and women who have died in military service to their country, many of whom did it to assist countless strangers in Europe in WW II.

Thank goodness they did, so that most of Europe can freely blame the US for all their problems.

I will be back Tuesday, but will send out FirstStrike orders early Monday morning. Europe will be trading and so will I.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, May 22, 2008

No trade..., is a trade! IFCN Wk 24 -Thu- Equity: $697.89

We've had some strong rallys in the Gbp/Usd and Eur/Usd this week, of course, right after we got stopped out early in the week.

That happens all the time when you are following a method that doesn't try to trade every swing. You miss some good trades, and just as many or even more bad trades.

We are not here to get all of the trades, just our trades.

The OneNightStand orders are going out tonight as usual. There will be only 4 potential trades this week.

Unless the Gbp/Jpy market moves up or down substantially in the next hour, the 10/40 moving average pair which presets the trade is too close to call. Most observers would likely lean with the buy side (take the upside breakout of the highest high of the last ten days) in this case, but for me too close to call.

The trading rule for this:

If there is any doubt about whether you have a trade, pass the trade.


If you adopt this rule too, you will be much happier and more profitable in your trading lifetime.

Markets do not like unnecessary uncertainty, and neither do professional traders.

Have a great night.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com


Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Can You Really Handle the Way the Market will Pay You Off? IFCN Wk 24 -Wed- Equity: $697.89

With the markets as choppy as they've been currently, I thought I would cover some applicable material.

Tons of people think that the ideal life is to sit on a beach, mountaintop, hotel room in Venice, or wherever and trade the markets. They believe that it's possible to make money almost every day and be able to consider the forex market a virtual ATM. That's obvious by the ads Google chooses to supply up on the righthand side of this site. (You know they now own Blogger too? Pretty soon they will own every search concept and internet delivery idea out there!) The ads change every time you load the page, but the messages are similar.

Some are pretty interesting too. But they center on the idea that there are secrets that no one else has (some truth in that) and you don't have to know very much about the markets and trading to do very well. (No truth at all in that.)

The big reason that trading is so difficult for the average Joe to exploit is because Joe is average. And at the very least, when he starts trading – he acts like the average guy who trades – and loses. He expects the solution to his problem will happen in a certain way, like a paycheck; and when it doesn't work out that way, he bolts and looks for another simple and ultimately costly solution.

The main problem is having solid information to base your decisions on. If you absolutely know some task is difficult to perform, like heart surgery; you would study it for many years before you would attempt going “live” in someone's chest. The same thought process should apply with becoming a trader, but doesn't because the ads say differently.

Even simple-appearing methods like those highlighted in this site such as FirstStrike and OneNightStand are simple only in their execution. The mental aspect that you have to get around which would enable you to trade significant size with them is gigantic.

There is no “something for nothing” in life. No (working) perpetual motion machines. But there are loads of people in this world who are very predictable, some extremely well financed; who have “tells” sticking out a mile and tend to lose because they really don't expect to gain. Some are world bankers.

They are our meat as traders.

But only if you can handle receiving the pay offs the market gives you, in the way it will give it to you.

Sometimes it only takes a change of mind for you to become a profitable trader.

Think about the following:
  1. If the only way you could get paid for your trading was in so many copper pennies per day, you'd probably take them and find an easy way to convert the pennies into dollars.
  2. If the only way you could get paid for your trading was from huge payoffs once every 2 years, and have to pay for small losses out of your pocket until the big payoff, you might  still be in, if the math makes sense.
I am sorry it's the case, but some of the best and ultimately the most profitable methods for independent traders fall much closer to the second example than the first. Some viable methods are in between the two extremes. But not many.

I sent an eight page missive to IFCN subscribers this afternoon entitled, THE HOLY GRAIL- Learning to Handle Variance in Returns. It is about the live trading experience of Ray, a local friend of mine, who recently started trading a daily volatility breakout method in addition to the systems on this site.

He started trading the daily system about 2 months ago and immediately went into drawdown. After 88 trades his new account is down 17% due to his higher leverage. His anticipated return (expectation) at this point would be approximately 15% gain on equity.

Is the system broken? If you would like to get a free copy of THE HOLY GRAIL- Learning to Handle Variance in Returns- just click on this link.

Look at this Monte Carlo representation below of the system's edge. As you can see, the Kelly Criterion number indicates a better than 10% potential edge. And still the volatility in potential returns is amazing. Just because you have a big edge doesn't mean you will win every time. Even Vegas has people take them for millions once in a while, and they have THE edge on every game.



Over the equivalent of 453 trades you can see how many ways your equity curve could end up. It is that variance in return that you have to understand which exists in your system and thereby your tolerance or lack thereof to trade it.

If you and I both start trading a winning system, and then I stop trading because I have an unacceptable (to my perception) string of losses, but you understand that what we've both experienced is typical for the method – you will very likely end up the winner, and me the loser.

That is the very essence of trading, profiting due to information you have that others don't. Maybe those Google ads aren't all bad. At least some of them offer free test accounts, something that can help you see what options are now available. I have tried 5 different test accounts and most of them have features that I would love to see Oanda adopt.

Like automatic OCO orders. Meaning, one-cancels-the-other orders. You can place a buy order and a sell order and whichever gets filled first gets filled and the other order is cancelled immediately.

Maybe soon.

Have a good evening.

Current equity still is at $697.89.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, May 20, 2008

How Real Money is Made! IFCN Wk 24 -Tue- Equity: $697.89

Here is a great story of how money is made:

A young man asked an old rich man how he made his money.

The old guy fingered his worsted wool vest and said, "Well, son, it was 1932. The depth of the Great Depression. I was down to my last nickel.

"I invested that nickel in an apple. I spent the entire day polishing the apple and, at the end of the day, I sold the apple for ten cents.

"The next morning, I invested those ten cents in two apples. I spent the entire day polishing them and sold them at 5:00 pm for 20 cents. I continued this system for a month, by the end of which I'd accumulated a fortune of $1.37."

"And that's how you built an empire?" the boy asked.

"Heavens, no!" the man replied. "Then my wife's father died and left us two million dollars."

______________

It is easier to make an empire when you start with $2,000,000 dollars than $500.

If you learn how compound capital starting with just $500-- when you come upon some REAL money, you too can build an empire with it.

Just a thought!

We finally got stopped out of the short FirstStrike Gbp/Jpy trade. We got short @ 203.24 and got stopped out at 204.14 for a total loss of 90 pips.

I wasn't surprised, since the trade never was more than marginally profitable at any time.

It does make the week shorter. Now there are no potential trades until Friday.

Have a good week!

Current equity is $697.89.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!



Monday, May 19, 2008

Zoned! IFCN Wk 24 -Mon- Equity: $701.18

It seems like we've been locked in this narrow equity zone forever. Not that I mind it that much, but it does get boring. It does beat getting hammered (equity-wise, not sobriety-challenged) week after week.

The dollar has been consolidating just below its recent highs, and may soon get a move on again.

As there were no OneNightStand trades taken on Friday, there were no exits this morning.

There were, however the 5 FirstStrike entries in the early morning hours. As in the previous 2 weeks, all of the trades were stopped out except for the Gbp/Jpy pair, which still is hanging on, not sure whether it wants to go up or down. Not terribly inspiring!

The following are our 5 FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5614, stopped out at 1.5554 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 203.24, stop 204.14. (90 pip risk) Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: long @ 1.9612, stopped out at 1.9552 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: short @ 1.0432, stopped out at 1.0492 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 103.78, stopped out at 104.38 for a 60 pip loss.
Note: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

With the current choppy market environment, it is unlikely that we will have a profitable week. But, the orders were put in and the trades were taken. That is what makes the profits possible when they come.

Current equity is $701.18.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Saturday, May 17, 2008

Hope Kills!-- IFCN Wk 23 -Fri- Equity: $734.36

There is no hope.  There is only price.

The pound dropped to a three-month low against the dollar this week as the negativity about the UK economy deepened.

I think people lack perspective! 65 years ago, the populace would have been happy to sell their souls for the economy they have now.

Informational reports in the UK this week showed that retail sales fell in April, and other indicators of inflation were clear that the government's concept of inflation rose from 2.5% in March to 3.0% in April. Laughably, the Bank of England's target for inflation is 2 per cent and expects everyone to believe it when prices have been spiraling out of control for years.

Of course, the US has been doing this for decades too, the old bait and switch. They've been changing out rising-priced items they review for inflation statistics so that pretty soon they will be gauging whether we have inflation by the cost of water due to rain and used pocket combs. You wouldn't actually expect them to guage real inflation by what life really costs their governed, would you?

News of rising price pressure dashed any ideas that the central bank might cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.75 per cent at its June meeting.

“We do not expect reduced expectations for rate cuts to benefit the pound and believe that the downside risks for sterling have risen,” said David Woo, of Barclays Capital. “The combination of tight credit and lower disposable income brought about by high inflation means that household consumption is becoming more vulnerable.”

This talk about finance news is included to show how little the governing and the governed understand about market movements and the why of what moves when.

I have two answers. The first is expediency.

Everyone is trying to keep their jobs. They do and say what they have to – to keep their jobs and some bit of place in the world.

The other answer is overuse of HOPE. Hope, used as a solution-- kills.

Governments. Dreams. And ultimately, the people governed--- due to actions predicated on mistaken assumptions and misplaced trust.

Inflation is a normal process tied to fiat currencies.

There are consequences to them that you and governments are aware of. But they can affect your life only to the degree you let them.

Do you remember a class in school where they studied and taught you about inflation? They taught you about “stranger-danger!” and “don't take candy from strangers”..., but the greatest theft device known to man got no play in the classroom.

There is no ultimate security in imaginary money based on “good faith” of the issuers. Especially when the issuers not only have little real faith. They have their own agendas, which doesn't include making sure you have a fine retirement in a cabin by the sea.

A palace by the sea might be their own personal agenda, but they intend to do it with YOUR money.

Don't trust the news or what conclusions the media offers due to the “news”. Distrust all of it.

Trust price. At least to a greater degree. Your profits are directly tied to the last tick seen.

------
We had a pretty good week when you consider how violently choppy it was to active traders.

After losing on 4 of our 5 FirstStrike trades, the long Gbp/Jpy trade helped out by mitigating the losses of the other trades. It is interesting that the last two weeks profits all came from the one pair which I have seen be the most obstinate over time.

Here is the recap of our trading week--

The data below is as of Friday's close, May 16, 2008:

No OneNightStand trades were executed on Friday.

Start of week equity: $741.65

OneNightStand Exit on 05/12/08:
Gbp/Usd: short on Friday @ 1.9501, exited at 1.9480 for a total trade profit of 21 pips

Completed FirstStrike trades this week:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5463, stopped out @ 1.5403 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 202.11, Friday exit @ 203.55 for a 144 pip profit.
  • Gbp/Usd: long @ 1.9531, stopped out @ 1.9471 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: short @ 1.0423, stopped out @ 1.0483 for 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 103.87, stopped out @ 103.27 for a 60 pip loss.

Total losses: 240 pips
Total profits: 144 pips
Net loss: 96 pips

OneNightStand 05/16/08 entry(s):
-None-

Unrealized Losses:          -0-
End of week equity: $734.36 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss for Week: $   7.29 (1.0% weekly decrease)

It was a decent week, with the conflicting news and few good trades. As always, there is next week to look forward to.

Have a pleasant weekend---

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, May 15, 2008

Choppy! IFCN Wk 23 -Thu- Equity: $735.30

It has been a choppy week for forex participants.  I got a number of calls today about how amazing it was that every trade the callers had taken this week seemed to be immediately going into losses.  

It can seem like that when markets get rangebound.  It usually means a bigger set of trades is in the offing.

Indeed, I've been happy that I've only taken a few trades this week.  I've seen very little opportunity this week so far.

OneNightStand orders for Friday are unlikely to be hit due to the large distance to breakout prices.

Current equity: $735.30.  With only the one FirstStrike trade active, it continues to be a slow week.  
Have a good Friday!  We'll recap after Friday's close.  

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com






Wednesday, May 14, 2008

Dollar gains popularity! IFCN Wk 23 -Wed- Equity: $741.17

It isn't just the pairs we trade!

Here are some of the headliners for forex news lines today:
  • Australian Dollar Declines To 13-day Lows against the Dollar
  • Malaysian Ringgit Slumps To New Multi-month Low against the Dollar
  • Indonesian Rupiah Plunges To Fresh Multi-month Low against the Dollar
  • Hong Kong Dollar Falls To New Multi-month Low against the Dollar
  • Aussie sets new multi-day lows against most majors
The dollar has been growing in strength against virtually all currencies.  After sending so many of its dollars overseas to purchase oil, and finally achieving a tenuous balance in its financial problems, the U.S. is enjoying the return of many of the dollars for investment in undervalued stocks and real estate.  While other industrialized countries are just beginning to realize that they've got issues to handle in their own currencies.

Don't be surprised if this trend continues for a good while.

The IEA (International Energy Agency) this week reduced its 2008 global oil demand forecast substantially for the second consecutive month--- as rocketing prices and slowdowns in advanced economies have been curbing oil demand. Even though some asian countries are possibly increasing some of their energy usage this year, European countries and America are definitely not.

People who --for years-- normally would drive to a grocery store 10 miles away anytime they thought of something they wanted, now stop and think about every trip they take. And combine errands as a rule instead of an exception. These changes in 'attention' are enough to permanently change behavior.

And ultimately, change major trends and capital flows.

Our Gbp/Jpy FirstStrike trade is still going strong.

It would be great if we had some of the other trades still with us that were prematurely killed off, but that too is part of the trading experience.

Current equity: $741.17

Have a good evening!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Just One Left.... IFCN Wk 23 -Tue- Equity: $738.10

We experienced 3 more FirstStrike losses today.

We are back to a similar situation as we were last week, holding only one remaining FirstStrike trade.  This time we remain long the Gbp/Jpy pair- @ 202.11 with protective stoploss at 201.21.

Maybe the pair will bring us outsized profits like it did last week.

Current equity:  $738.10

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!





Monday, May 12, 2008

pssst!! Now Sell the Dollar! IFCN Wk 23 -Mon- Equity: $748.05

Nothing has changed except the flavor of fear in the forex market.

The currency markets of late have offered every possible variety of movement. Strong up movements, strong down movements, and then strong upmoves again. Pick a pair, any pair.

That is why we simply follow our signals. If there is a sustained move, by entering our trades we will be in position to catch it. Only those who execute get the chance to profit.

We had one OneNightStand trade exited this morning at 00:01 CST-
Gbp/Usd: short on Friday @ 1.9501, exited at 1.9480 for a total trade profit of 21 pips. Another profitable ONS trade, now 3 in a row.  

All 5 of the week's FirstStrike trades got entered today. One quick loss was taken in the long Usd/Jpy trade. The trade was entered @ 103.87, the market fell to the protective sell stop at 103.27 to the tick- and then went right back up to the entry point. That happens sometimes, but rarely that perfectly! Trading is a very perverse occupation.

The following are our 5 FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd:  long @ 1.5463, stop 1.5403.
  • Gbp/Jpy:  long @ 202.11, stop 201.21. (90 pip risk)
  • Gbp/Usd:  long @ 1.9531, stop 1.9471.
  • Usd/Chf: short @ 1.0423, stop 1.0483.
  • Usd/Jpy:   long @ 103.87, stopped out at 103.27 for a 60 pip loss.
Note: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

We are currently sitting with small profits in a couple of our trades. We'll see what the week will bring.

Side note: I've gotten emails from a few subscribers that they missed the March issue (#4) of the IFC newsletter, "What is Your Winning Structure?" This evening, I will send out the current download links for all of the available newsletters if you missed any. The internet is still far from perfect.

Current equity is $748.05.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Friday, May 9, 2008

pssst!! Buy the Dollar!-- IFCN Wk 22 -Fri- Equity: $741.65

As most of the current readers of this site are aware, I have been critical of the excessive value of the Euro currency. It looks like others have begun adopting the same view.

Jim Rogers, a long-time bear on the U.S. dollar (USD) believes the currency is finally oversold.

Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, said in a Bloomberg article, “Too many investors are bearish on the U.S. dollar and the currency will have a 'nice' rally.”

Rogers co-founded the Quantum fund with George Soros in the 1970s and correctly predicted the start of the commodities boom in 1999.

"I expect a nice rally in the American dollar because so many have been bearish on the American dollar including me," Rogers said at the launch of the Barclays Global Agriculture Delta Fund in Singapore today. "America is also a huge producer of agriculture and if I'm right about agriculture prices, which I think will go up a lot, that's going to help America compared to those countries which don't have agriculture."

Rogers said in an interview late in April that he was hoping the dollar rally would last a year, which would make it possible for him to unload all of his U.S. currency. He is a big believer in the currencies of commodity producing nations, such as Australia, New Zealand and Canada.

He also expects U.S. Treasuries to decline due to increasing inflationary pressures. “I have sold long-term U.S. government bonds,'' Rogers said. ``If the same thing happens as it always happens in inflationary times, then rates are going much, much higher, especially long- term rates.''

Rogers also pointed out the fact that central banks can be good at affecting short-term interest rates, but they can't do very much with longer term rates.

Since Mr. Rogers is a trading realist and not primarily a broker, and places huge market positions when real conditions change – taking note of his present stance is prudent. He has enough resources, informational and monetary - to be correct when it matters.
-------

About our strangely profitable week.

After losing on 4 of our 5 FirstStrike trades, the short Gbp/Jpy trade saved the week by exploiting the pair's huge drop! The 608 pip profit overwhelmed the other losses and added solid profits to the week's trading!

It is another example of the efficacy of a trading method which takes numerous small losses but holds profits for as long as practical. Methods which do this can be simple, but need to trade at favorable times to gain a great advantage.

Here is the recap of our trading week--

The data below is as of Friday's close, May 9, 2008:

We had only one OneNightStand trade executed on Friday. Details follow-

Start of week equity: $711.60

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 05/05/08:
Usd/Chf: long on Friday @ 1.0510, exited at 1.0541 for a total trade profit of 31 pips
Usd/Jpy: long on Friday @ 104.91, exited at 1.5.21 for a total trade profit of 30 pips

Completed FirstStrike trades this week:
Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5508, stopped out @ 1.5448 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Jpy: short @ 207.09, Friday exit @ 201.01 for a 608 pip profit.
Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9706, stopped out @ 1.9766 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0592, stopped out at 1.0532 for 60 pip loss.
Usd/Jpy: short @ 104.69, stopped out @ 105.29 for a 60 pip loss.

Total losses: 240 pips
Total profits: 608 pips
Net gain:       368 pips

OneNightStand 05/09/08 entry:
Gbp/Usd:  short @ 195.01, stop @196.01.
The stoploss order for the short Gbp/Usd did not get hit on Friday, so we will exit the trade on Monday morning @ 00:01 CST.
Unrealized loss on ONS trade @ Friday close: 44 pips.

Unrealized Losses:       $ 3.25
End of week equity: $ 741.65 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Gain for Week: $ 30.05 (4.2% weekly increase)

It was a great week, considering one relatively small trade did the heavy lifting!

Looking forward to next week.

Wishing you a pleasant weekend---

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!


Thursday, May 8, 2008

Pound is Too Heavy! - IFCN Wk 22 -Thu- Equity: $731.23

The British pound is still being pressured due to carry trades being unwound.

The perception that the English economy is not substantially better than other industrialized countries has become realized in recent unassailable reports.

Our FirstStrike trade shorting the Gbp/Jpy at the beginning of the week @ 207.09, w/protective stop at 207.99 – is still alive and well, so far holding over 450 pips in profits. That could change by tomorrow when we have to exit, but the trade so far has shown that there is little strength in the carry side of this pair.

After the trend reversal week in most of the pairs we follow, there is a good chance that we will NOT have any OneNightStand trades on Friday.

The pairs we trade are all an excessive distance from their respective Friday ONS entries.

If we should get a trade somehow, remember that the ONS stoplosses have been changed to 100 pips, up from 55 pips because of increased volatility. You will need to adjust your position size proportionately.

Current equity: $731.23.

The weekly recap will follow after Friday's close.

Have a good night.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

newsletter-at-infiniteyield.com


Wednesday, May 7, 2008

You profit from GBP/JPY Carry-Trade Collapse! IFCN Wk 22 -Wed- Equity: $721.02

The attention in forex trading is decidedly moving away from US economic issues to the economic troubles in the European and Britain zones. The forex trading forecast for the US dollar is looking better, and it appears that the easy money slam dunk of shorting the US dollar is drawing to a close.

Even the Japanese Yen is stronger than European currencies.  That says a lot all by itself.

What's the problem with the Euro?

A run of poor economic data has it pressured in recent weeks after it hit it's record high above $1.60 vs. the dollar, erasing perceptions that the euro area was insulated from the U.S. downturn.

The euro zone retail sales have been anemic, suggesting that European consumers are slowing down much more than reporting businesses were willing to admit months ago. The outlook is deteriorating for Europe and that's why we should continue to see downward pressure on the Euro.

The GBP/USD currency pair is dropping in forex trading as news on the British economy shows increasing weaknesses. The industrial production contracts data shows the last strong domain (production) in the British economy is flagging.

This could mean that the Bank of England may cut interest rates sooner than expected to keep things from getting a lot worse real fast.

We have one FirstStrike trade in operation after 3 days into the week.

We are still short Gbp/Jpy @ 207.09, with the protective stop at 207.99. As of the time of writing this we have well over 350 pips profit and are up solidly for the week, despite experiencing losses on our other 4 trades earlier.

Since the short Gbp/Jpy has been profitable from the beginning of the week, with no backing up at all-- it looks like it should stay a winner.

Our current equity is $721.02.

Not too bad.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com


PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Tuesday's Can Be Blue Too! IFCN Wk 22 -Tue- Equity: $701.90

The paucity of interesting news tends to lull major market participants into inactive postures.

That explains the choppy behavior the past 2 days. It makes me happy that this week I'm trading very little. I only like to be involved heavily when the markets are very strong or very weak.

Late today the dollar started back to a stronger stance against the Swiss Franc, the Yen and the Euro.

It took a serious whack earlier in the day, reacting to other markets, such as U.S. Bonds and high oil prices.

Now, only 3 of the 5 weekly FirstStrike trades are still viable. The Gbp/Usd short trade @ 1.9706, got stopped out at 1.9766 for a 60 pip loss.

Remaining FirstStrike trades:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5508, stop 1.5448.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 207.09, stop 207.99.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 104.69, stop 105.29.
Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Very small profits exist on the remaining trades.

The Nonfarm Productivity report is out tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM CST. That'll likely shake things up a little.

Amazingly the account balance has stayed almost the same, but with different pairs providing the boost. Current equity is $701.90.

Have a good evening.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, May 5, 2008

Monday Blues! IFCN Wk 22 -Mon- Equity: $700.60

Again it is Monday, and again the markets are far from definitive as to what 
their weekly course will be.

OneNightStand trades exited this morning at 00:01 CST-
  • Usd/Chf: long on Friday @ 1.0510, exited at 1.0541 for a total trade profit of 31 pips
  • Usd/Jpy: long on Friday @ 104.91, exited at 1.5.21 for a total trade profit of 30 pips
Nice to see some profits in the ONS group.

Finally all 5 of the FirstStrike trades got entered today, and after a quick loss- only 4 remain.

2 trades have small profits as I write this, the Sterling pairs: Short the Gbp/Usd and short Gbp/Jpy.

The following are our 5 FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5508, stop 1.5448.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 207.09, stop 207.99.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9706, stop 1.9766.
  • Usd/Chf: long@ 1.0592, stopped out at 1.0532 for 60 pip loss
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 104.69, stop 105.29.

Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

I'm not overwhelmed by the prospects of the current FirstStrike trades, but there is a long week ahead and much can happen.   I've been surprised many times what can transpire in just a couple trades.

Current equity is $700.60.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Saturday, May 3, 2008

Dollar Rampages Euro, Swiss and Yen on Derby week!-- IFCN Wk 21 -Fri- Equity: $711.60

Big Brown wins the Kentucky Derby!

In racing, like trading, I keep looking out for that new Secretariat.

Today's was a great race with a dominant horse, but it was too bad that Eight Belles, the filly who came in second had to be destroyed minutes after the finish because it came up ruined.

I don't think Big Brown is a Secretariat, but at least he beat everyone today out of a huge field with fast horses!

On to our week.

After a choppy beginning he dollar gained on the Euro, the Swiss and the Yen quite handsomely!

The rest of the trading world is recognizing what some of us who can add 2 + 2 have been able to surmise weeks ago. If you have incredible bad news released daily about a currency and it doesn't fall any more, maybe its overdone...?

Just a personal comment, European news agencies!

Here is the recap of our trading week--

The data below is as of Friday's close, May 2, 2008:

We had three OneNightStand trades executed on Friday.  Details follow below.

Start of week equity: $ 743.53.

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 04/28/08:
Usd/Jpy: long @ 104.66 exited Monday morning @ 104.52 for a 14 pip loss

Completed FirstStrike trades this week:
  • Eur/Usd:   long @ 1.5693, stopped out @ 1.5633 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy:   long @ 208.08, stopped out @ 207.18 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9787, stopped out @ 1.9847 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf:    long@ 1.0388, stopped out @  1.0328 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy:   short@ 104.02, stopped out @ 104.62 for a 60 pip loss.
Total losses: 330 pips
Total profits: 0 pips
Net loss: 330 pips.

OneNightStand 05/02/08 entries:
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 209.02, stopped out @208.02 for 100 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0510, open profits 62 pips
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 104.91, open profits 48 pips
The stoploss orders for Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy did not get hit, so we will exit both trades on Monday morning @ 00:01 CST.
Current Profts of remaining trades @ Friday close: 110 pips.  

Unrealized Profits: $ 7.88
End of week equity: $711.60 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss for Week: $ 31.93 (4.3% weekly decrease)

It was too bad we got stopped out of the long Usd/Chf. That was the only trade I thought actually had a chance to make something this week. Alas, it got stopped out too early!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com


PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, May 1, 2008

The Dollar Roars! - IFCN Wk 21 -Thu- Equity: $710.05

Lot of great action today!

The European currencies reaction to the quarter-point cut in the US Fed funds rate on Wednesday was shortlived! Today the Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf returned to their trending action of yielding to the dollar.

Further comments after the rate cut appeared to indicate that the Fed is likely to maintain rates at the new level for the near term.

The dollar jumped to its highest level in a month against the euro today, based on growing suspicions that stable US interest rates will encourage a bottom in the dollar.   In contrast, the ECB is increasingly expected to cut its refinancing rate soon or risk further economic slowdowns.

Currencies move from extreme to extreme.  It is in their nature.
-----

There is a very good chance that we will have OneNightStand trades on Friday.

The best possibilities are the buys of Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy.

Remember:  The stoplosses have been changed to 100 pips, up from 55 pips!

Current equity: $710.05.

The weekly recap will follow on Friday.

Have a great day!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com