Saturday, January 31, 2009

Big Week Again! XAG (Silver rally) Here's why----

I had to embed this next video.

I know the last video series got deleted. Too bad, because many needed to learn the lessons that were YouTubed for those who don't get the BBC.

This video was sent to me from one of my kind readers and friends, Jim from Oregon.



ATTENTION:What follows is my personal view. This notation is necessary or I'd have to have a million disclaimers attached to my site, a real pain.

Now you see why silver is a can't lose investment.

Have a great Super Bowl.  It might be hard if you actually watched the above video. Not so bad if you plan on doing something to profit from it.

Joel Rensink
leonardo@infiniteyield.com

Thursday, January 29, 2009

Maybe You're Pretty Good After All! - IFCN Wk 60 –Thu- Equity: $2,656.39

Budget out an hour of your time. You have a series of videos to watch.

I know that most of you who follow this site are individuals who have fought a long time to become profitable in forex, or futures and stock trading. The rest of you are likely at the start of finding out whether trading is suitable for you.

Not to be negative, but trading probably isn't the right thing for most of you.

Not that it's impossible for most of you to be marginally successful, especially if you're executing robust trading models like the methods we follow on this site-- but to stick with trading over the long haul takes a type of individual who has something different driving them.

I believe it is that which drives us that makes us successful. More about that in the future.

Courtesy of a generous reader, I got an email that had the link to the beginning of an incredible video series that all of you NEED to watch. (Thanks Archiphage)

Set aside an hour to watch all of the episodes. I have the links for all six below.

*****This set of videos is now inoperative*****

1- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZc0fLZ4EQM
2- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDshougcPWo
3- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1gvQ5e_c18&NR=1
4- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmQON_TTUzM
5- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cer-2yIRtow
6- http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTuMrRbApI4

If you think you've had it difficult trading, wait until you see how 8 people plucked off the street in Britain do when they are 'forced' to trade markets. The markets involved are very recent, so you will be able to relate to the news and the psychological impacts that these guys were going through.

When you compare the type of returns we've been experiencing - with a whole lot less handwringing – with what kind of results a grand total of 8 people with counseling from resident pros before they started, you might start giving yourself some credit.

You WILL enjoy these YouTube videos (cut in six sections to make the file size tractable).

After you watch them you will think you are pretty competent. If you can execute your trades with or without fear, I'll agree. As I've repeated many times, it is the execution, and the “being in” that gets you the profits. The hedge fund trader who's money is being risked in the program, also made that abundantly clear.

If you can execute a solid method over and over and take the psychological stress of losses AND profits you definitely have a good chance of succeeding.

Meanwhile:

We've had a lot of action in the forex markets with the Gbp dominated pairs doing the leading this week. FSP is basically even, profitwise; all things considered.

Nice move XAG! I knew you had it in you.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4024, stop 1.3467.. Trade in progress.
eur/usd: Long @ 1.3096, stop 1.2867. Trade in progress.
gbp/jpy: Long @125.99, stop 119.38. Trade in progress.
usd/chf: Short @ 1.1450, stop 1.1674. Trade in progress.
usd/jpy: Long @ 90.09, stop 88.59. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $2,068.39

Silver position equity: $588.00
(Current XAG price: $12.34 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,656.39

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Glimmers of H-o-p-e or Just Gas? -- IFCN Wk 60 –Tues- Equity: $2,594.64

A few points of note:

According to some very popular news sources, because German business confidence rose somewhat unexpectedly and the U.S. stock index futures advanced yesterday – the Euro is advancing from its lows last week. (More likely the market ran out of selling from stirred Pollyannas)

Supposedly, the Ifo Institute said business confidence climbed for the first time in eight months and a major engineering company- Siemens AG, reported profits that beat expectations.

Funny how almost every move in every market has to have some significant reason behind it and must be reported by the press. Any wiggle is always explained away to comfort the rank and file to assure them that there is someone who always understands what is going on. It doesn't matter to the news agencies if what they are espousing is correct, it just has to stand the test of plausible deniability to their editors.

Where this becomes a problem is for the individuals who begin to actually believe that it is the specific events that they are hearing about that actually move the markets; when in fact, market movements are more akin to horses breaking wind. Most current market moves are usually much-speeded-up actions that would have occurred earlier, and much smoother, if some major forces (likely unseen and unheralded) hadn't impeded their movement.

The tendency for markets to be closer in nature to equine bowel activity than rational action is disquieting to the masses, but then again-- they don't trade for a living.

-----

Not a bad week so far.

We have 4 FirstStrike Plus trades, all but the Usd/Jpy, which got very close to entering. So far we are profitable, and silver XAG continues to hold on to substantial gains.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4024, stop 1.3467.. Trade in progress.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.3096, stop 1.2867. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Long @125.99, stop 119.38. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.1450, stop 1.1674. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $2,088.64

Silver position equity: $506.00
(Current XAG price: $11.93 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,594.64

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Huge Plus Week--IFCN WK 60 -Mon-Equity: $2,568.92

So comes the exit of some hugely profitable trades.

It has been a while since we had so many big profits per market. In the Usd/Chf alone, we made more than 5 times in profit what we were risking on the trade.

Many will think these are outsized gains that can't possibly repeat, but anyone who has been trading FirstStrike for any amount of time knows that this is exactly the way the method works, lots of relatively small losses for weeks at a time and then some very big profits.

I am quite aware that I've not been posting very regularly on the site. I have been busy with my personal trading, but also-- I have little to say when trades are going well.

Trades that work take no emotional input, except perhaps to stave away the all too human desire to book a profit. I took care of that demon long ago when I discovered personally and intellectually that letting profits run was the surest way to trading success. And perhaps the hardest, as many of my friends following this site can attest.

I've recently heard from a number of new readers who are sure that this trading concept's (FSP) profits are a fluke. To that criticism I respectly suggest, "Don't trade it." At least until you are certain that we are capitalizing on a serious market edge.

Nevertheless, the IFCN account is up 413% since December of 2007, or 358% annualized. Still not bad. Without any serious drawdowns (greater than 30%) and with a plethora of long and short trades in diverse markets. A very unusual case of random success if you were trying to make that case.

Don't worry, there will definitely be many extensive and bumpy rides in the future that will make you long after the last 4 month run we've experienced. When? That's the problem all traders experience in trading, profits keep going until something fundamental changes in the market that results in changing the profitability of a large sector of traders. I doubt we are currently part of any large sector anyone is worried about as I've heard of very few other forex/currency/futures traders that are making the kind of returns displayed here.

Who knows? Maybe we will keep building capital like this for a few months longer. Either way, I recommend you figuring out a way to get some silver (or XAG) before it gets a lot more expensive. It has helped the account alot but is by no means the only reason we've been outperforming other trading concepts.

Have a great week!

Thanks for the comments/feedback you sent me about the Trader's Expo hosted by Tradersworld last week. Many of you attended and listened to my discussion about VBOs (volatility breakouts) and how it is important to hang your hat on a viable concept if you are planning to get serious and make a livelihood from the markets. The way the money comes to you from trading this way may not be pretty, but it spends just fine.

I also applaud the large group of watchers who are learning in silence, seeing the fruitage of our, and perhaps some of their own, labours; from one of the most perverse trading methodologies discovered.

-----

As of Monday, January 26, 00:00 CST – here is the status of the following trades coming in from the previous week:

Week of January 19, 2009---FirststrikePlus trades
  • short eur/usd@ 1.3222, exited at 1.2924 for 298 pip profit
  • short gbp/jpy@ 133.60, exited at 121.03 for 1257 pip profit
  • short gbp/usd@ 1.4819, exited at 1.3605 for 1214 pip profit
  • long usd/chf @ 1.1229, exited at 1.1618 for 389 pip profit
  • short usd/jpy @ 90.17, exited at 88.96 for 121 pip profit
-----
OneNightStand orders for Friday, January 23, 2009
*short eur/usd @1.2823, stopped at 1.2923 for 100 pip loss.
*short gbp/jpy @119.39, stopped at 120.39 for 100 pip loss.
*short gbp/usd @1.3619, stopped at 1.3719 for 100 pip loss.

Trading account equity: $2,072.92

Silver position equity: $496.00
(Current XAG price: $11.87 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,568.92

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, January 19, 2009

Trades Rise Like a Phoenix! -- IFCN Wk 59 –Mon- Equity: $2,159.09

We've got substantially larger profits in just a couple hours of trading this week.

How? Courtesy of the FirstStrikePlus trades from last week.

Early this morning the dollar's strength became a wave, clicking us into a long usd/chf and a short usd/jpy trade, both with very small stoplosses meaning we have on substantial size for once. Either we will be stopped out quickly or this could be a big week.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Short @1.4819, stop 1.5045. (From prev. week)
  • eur/usd: Short @1.3222, stop 1.3466. (From prev. week)
  • gbp/jpy: Short @133.60, stop 136.96. (From prev. week)
  • usd/chf: Long @ 1.1229, stop 1.1152.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 90.17, stop 91.14.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,795.09
Silver position equity: $364.00
(Current XAG price: $11.22 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,159.09

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Dollar Stronger---IFCN WK 59 -Mon- Equity: $2,101.55

The dollar was stronger at the beginning of the previous week, yet relaxed a bit by the end of the previous week, causing trades which had decent profits to give them all up. At the end of the week the only decent profit left in the account was from silver, (XAG) which is more of an IFCN position trade than a frequent tradeable. (But, the XAG trade will likely be the biggest profit ever taken in this "originally" small account when we exit at extreme prices.)

Because of the lack of profits in the 3 FSP trades still on board for Monday morning's open at 00:00 CST (06:00 GMT), we are not able to exit until we have a profitable weekly open or we legitimately get stopped out, or reversed.

-----
As of Monday, January 19, 00:00 CST – here is the status of the following trades coming in from the previous week:

Week of January 12, 2009---FirststrikePlus trades
  • gbp/usd: Short @1.4819. Trade in progress.
  • eur/usd: Short @1.3222. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Short @133.60. Trade in progress.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 88.80, stopped at 90.59 for 179 pip loss.
-----
OneNightStand orders for Friday, January 16, 2009
*none
-----
Trading account equity: $1,741.55
Silver position equity: $360.00
(Current XAG price: $11.20 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,101.55

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Friday, January 16, 2009

Euro Correction Completing? -- IFCN Wk 58 –Thu- Equity: $2,040.22

The inauguration day draws near. People have positioned themselves as well as they can based on their beliefs of the changes expected to take place economically because of the looming presidency. Remember, the whole "O" campaign was based on "hope."

Hope is not a strategy. This leads into an old saying.

---If wishes were horses, then beggars would ride---

(Alternate translation: If wishing could make things happen, then even the most destitute people would have everything they wanted.) OH! NO! That is what the campaign promised!!!

I'm sure a few of you could recount how well trading based on hope succeeds.

We'll be stuck with this wishful bunch for a while. Until they're broke along with everyone else.

Time to get everyone to read Ayn Rand's Atlas Shrugged!

------

What we've been experiencing for the last few weeks is corrective action. The dollar has gained a little of its strength back. Don't expect it to last much longer.

The corrective action in the Euro and the Swiss Franc has been sharp and bloody for those who thought the waters were safe after last week.

When the majority of market participants are confused is when market corrections end. We could be looking at the near-term bottom in the Eur/Usd and a top in the Usd/Chf. Next week's FSP trades could be significant

-----

It is unlikely that we will have any OneNightStand trades today. The distance is very great to any of the action points sent out in the ONS email. We will keep alert to any surprise moves.
-----

Week starting January 12, 2009 -IFCN WK 58
start 2,153.02 W/XAG
-----

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Short @1.4819, stop 1.5195. Trade in progress.
  • eur/usd: Short @1.3222, stop 1.3474. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Short @133.60, stop 136.96. Trade in progress.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 88.80, stop at 90.59. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,788.62

Silver position equity: $252.00
(Current XAG price: $10.66 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,040.22

The last few weeks have been pretty choppy, but still--- there were enough good trades to add a few more profits to the account.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Holiday Recap-- Solid Gains Despite Quivering Market Action.

Here is the recap of the trades I've taken through the last few weeks while I took my break from writing.

It was great having a little break, but since the markets were still moving, I kept placing the FirstStrike and ONS trades. With quite satisfying results. Nothing spectacular mind you, but a decent increase even with XAG (silver) prices declining somewhat during the period.

The last couple of weeks of 2008, I traded smaller size because the markets get very dodgy and prone to thrusts and parries that can stop you out unnecessarily. This was most obvious the week starting December 29, 2008. Everything that week that got entered was stopped out.

Not surprising with the breakout ranges that week being the smallest in almost a year.

-IFCN WK 54
start $1,928.48 w/XAG
Dec 15, 2008---Firststrike
long eur/usd @ 1.3676, exited at 1.4011 for 335 pip profit
short gbp/jpy@ 133.04, stopped at 138.23 for 519 pip loss
long gbp/jpy@ 139.23, stopped at 135.91 for 335 pip loss
long gbp/usd@ 1.5173, stopped at 1.4993 for 180 pip loss
short usd/chf @ 1.1582, exited at 1.0983 for 599 pip profit
-----
OneNightStand orders for Friday, Dec. 19, 2008.
short gbp/jpy @132.47, stopped at 133.47 for 100 pip loss.
-----
-IFCN WK 55
start $2,042.48 w/XAG
Dec. 22, 2008---Firststrike
short gbp/jpy @ 132.11, stopped at 133.69 for 158 pip loss.
short gbp/usd from 1.4657, stopped at 1.4789 for 132 pip loss.
short usd/jpy @89.21, stopped at 90.99 for 178 pip loss.
-----
OneNightStand orders for Friday, Dec. 26, 2008.
short gbp/usd @ 1.4659, exited Monday at1.4721 for 62 pip loss
-----
-IFCN WK 56
start $1,974.53 w/XAG
Dec. 29, 2008---Firststrike
long eur/usd @ 1.4237, stopped at 1.4148 for 89 pip loss.
long gbp/jpy@ 133.69, stopped at 132.72 for 97 pip loss.
long gbp/usd@ 1.4789, stopped at 1.4656 for 134 pip loss.
short usd/chf @ 1.0481, stopped at 1.0625 for 144 pip loss.
long usd/jpy @ 90.99, stopped at 90.41 for 58 pip loss.
----
OneNightStand orders for Friday, Jan. 2, 2009. -NONE
-----
-IFCN WK 57
start $2,088.13 w/XAG
Jan. 5, 2009---Firststrike
short eur/usd @ 1.3737, exited at 1.3411 for 326 pip profit
long gbp/jpy @ 134.63, exited at 136.12 for 149 pip profit
long gbp/usd @ 1.4617, exited at 1.5101 for 484 pip profit
long usd/chf @ 1.0927, exited at 1.1165 for 238 pip profit
long usd/jpy @ 92.80, stopped at 91.73 for 107 pips loss
-----
OneNightStand orders for Friday, Jan. 9, 2009. -None
-----

That brings us up to the current week, which will follow directly.

Some of you have contacted me about your great successes in December. Many of you made substantially larger returns than I did. Congratulations on your efforts.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, January 12, 2009

Turbulence - Beware! -IFCN WK 58

The markets have been in an amazing type of tumult.  In aviation, it is called turbulence.


Substantial profits have been possible from trading breakout methods recently, but many traders who could be profiting have accomplished little because of the confusing nature of the moves in forex and other major markets.

Last week, the Euro was especially weak, while the Sterling was exceptionally strong.  Normally the two majors tend to rise or fall together versus the dollar.  When veteran traders are confronted with strong anomalies like that, it can give them pause..., and cause them to stand aside.

(Recap is in progress-  Really!  Please check back ----)

Joel Rensink

IFCN Challenge

Thursday, January 8, 2009

Best Wishes to All for the NEW YEAR-- IFCN WK 57

It is important to take breaks. Next time I'll try to give some warning. Thanks again to all the well-wishers who wrote to me.

Good to be back-- and especially in a year that shows so much promise.

When you have so many markets which are pushed to extremes, the resultant reactions that are inevitable to compensate-- create incredible opportunities for breakout traders who have the courage to stick with their methods. I suspect we will be part of a small group who will profit handsomely from the future forex movements.

A quick update on this week's action. This has been a particularly profitable week, much more than I would have expected.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

  • eur/usd:Short @1.3737, stop 1.3947. Trade in progress. 70+ pips
  • gbp/jpy: Long @134.63, stop 132.75. Trade in progress. 350+ pips
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4617, stop 1.4434. Trade in progress. 550+ pips
  • usd/chf: Long @ 1.0927, stop 1.0735. Trade in progress. ~10 pips profit
  • usd/jpy: Long @ 92.80, stopped at 91.73 for a 107 pip loss.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Current XAG price: $11.15

It will be very unlikely for OneNightStand trades to be executed tomorrow due to the current large distances from entry points. That's OK. We'll have some great opportunities in the near future.

Meanwhile- we can be ready for the FSP trades next week.

I'll post the last few week's trades tomorrow.

Have a good evening

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!