First One Way, Then the Other! - IFCN WK 70 - Tue- Equity: $ 2,673.65

The First-Profitable-Open exit sure worked great this week.

We had quite strong moves last week, many of which we were able to take advantage of.

Fortunately, the profits were taken at the open of the Monday, with little follow-through. After exiting, the markets all reversed course like they hit an anvil.

Everywhere you turn, you are hearing the R or D words-- recession and depression. I've said it before, but it bears repeating-- if we are going into a deep recession or depression, it is the most highly advertised one in history.

It is very difficult to imagine that with all the doom-saying out there, that people who feel threatened haven't already acted. Whether that means eliminating whatever assets they felt vulnerable about or ...?

Time will definitely tell, but it is likely we will benefit because we act so quickly as major capital flows force us into our trades.

For the last two days we've been experiencing sharp set-backs in the main currencies vs. the dollar. Most of the news sources trumpet the idea that the Euro, Sterling, Swissy and others will continue tumbling, with the dollar regaining prominence because of derivative market risks being too high.

Whether or not that will be the case, we got entered into five mostly profitable, FirstStrikePlus trades.

While the XAG still is pretty weak, it is encouraging to be getting some decent (at the moment) trades.

This week's FirststrikePlus current trades:

• eur/usd: Short @ 1.3441, stop 1.3602.
• gbp/jpy: Short @146.66, stop 151.92.
• gbp/usd: Short @1.4712, stop 1.5007.
• usd/chf: Long @1.1339, stop 1.1238.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 99.51, stop 101.28.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
-----
Trading account equity: $ 2,125.65
Silver position equity: $ 548.00
(Current XAG price: $12.32 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $ 2,673.65

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Vegas Workshop Rocked! -IFCN WK 69 - Mon- Mar. 30, 2009

Hi all--

The London Squeeze workshop in Las Vegas March 28th went off extremely well. The only hitch was they switched our conference room at the last minute. Perhaps it was a security thing.

The synergy of the participants couldn't have been better. I thoroughly enjoyed meeting and speaking with every one. We had bright attendees from around the world and the U.S. All had the desire to be the best professional traders possible and improve the skills necessary to consistently execute despite drawdowns and world changes.

In this difficult profession, there is a tremendous benefit in meeting and discussing trading nuances with your peers face-to-face. An additional benefit is the understanding it provides to your mental game to meet others who have successfully learned to cope with trading issues similarly or differently than yourself.

I was great for me to put a face to a number of the intelligent followers of this site and get valuable feedback about the needs of new but serious forex traders.

In the future we will likely hear some of the attendees' personal observations.

I'm returning to Minneapolis in a few days.

This morning's open allowed us to exit profitably the short Eur/Usd and long Usd/Chf FirstStrikePlus trades from last week.

So far: I've placed my orders for this week; already filled on the short Gbp/Jpy FSP trade, filled and stopped out on the short Usd/Jpy FSP trade.

When I return home I will do last week's recap and continue with the results of trading this week.

So far, it looks like a fickle start. That happens.

Best of wishes to you all.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Let the Reader Use Discernment! -IFCN WK 67 - Tues- Equity: $2,338.19

There is a truth that gets repeated just often enough for you to remember hearing it before, but too quickly forgotten when the latest episode of your life slaps you into temporary submission..., that is- “those who refuse to remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.

It would be best if an understanding of history was regarded as a crucial talisman against catastrophe by those who affect the present and future lives of so many others around them. As we can observe in just the last year's financial exposés, few of the offenders ever considered what financial mayhems occurred before them, except perhaps as a guide to fleecing their prey more effectively before they got caught.

There are too many failed financial schemes in the past to recount, most of the best itemized and dramatized well in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. The famous tome is a wealth of history of popular follies by author Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. I recommend that any person wishing to profit from markets- especially in these unique times- immediately obtain the book and read it straightaway. A one-time reading of the Tulip Mania account - which occurred a mere 370 years ago - is worth the price of the book. You will refer to it many times over the years to reassure yourself that you aren't mad, the world likely is.

Something a few of us are doing more than we will readily admit to.

One of my favorite personages, Thomas Jefferson, drew from his lifelong study of history, theory and practice to become the main author of the Declaration of Independence, and become the desperately needed 3rd President of the United States. He was the original “reluctant hero”, who had no desire to govern men because of the lack of appreciation received when the governing is truly fair.

Finance is not a discovery of the last 20 years. Jefferson understood that countries like ours are created and maintained primarily for profit, not to make all personal ills right. When they stop being run for profit, the safety and security of the country declines. Eventually even a great country will be brought to ruin if the inmates (or those who should be) are allowed to make the rules and make YOU pay for their liberty at the expense of your own.

Jefferson's thoughts on banking apply only too well today, and our downfall is assured if his warning is disregarded:

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs. “

I know that if he was aware of what was transpiring in our country today, he'd be spinning in his grave.

A final quote from our 3rd President:

...Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government...it is their Right, it is their Duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future Security.
Thomas Jefferson – The Declaration of Independence

-----
I had one FirstStrikePlus trade get stopped out, the Gbp/Usd. Meanwhile, the Eur/Usd is still holding, the Usd/Chf is sagging and the Japanese Yen affected pairs are making narrow ranges.

Quite a showdown situation building.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stopped at 1.3980 for 191 pip loss.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,717.19

Silver position equity: $621.00
(Current XAG price: $12.67 – 300 unit position average: $10.60)
TOTAL Equity: $2,338.19

The recent abrupt silver swings toy with the total equity, but the likelihood of abrupt higher prices in the near future tempers too much concern.

It is interesting that the first 2 days of this week have been burned through and we only have had two entries. Maybe something spectacular will happen later in the week.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Glimmers of H-o-p-e or Just Gas? -- IFCN Wk 60 –Tues- Equity: $2,594.64

A few points of note:

According to some very popular news sources, because German business confidence rose somewhat unexpectedly and the U.S. stock index futures advanced yesterday – the Euro is advancing from its lows last week. (More likely the market ran out of selling from stirred Pollyannas)

Supposedly, the Ifo Institute said business confidence climbed for the first time in eight months and a major engineering company- Siemens AG, reported profits that beat expectations.

Funny how almost every move in every market has to have some significant reason behind it and must be reported by the press. Any wiggle is always explained away to comfort the rank and file to assure them that there is someone who always understands what is going on. It doesn't matter to the news agencies if what they are espousing is correct, it just has to stand the test of plausible deniability to their editors.

Where this becomes a problem is for the individuals who begin to actually believe that it is the specific events that they are hearing about that actually move the markets; when in fact, market movements are more akin to horses breaking wind. Most current market moves are usually much-speeded-up actions that would have occurred earlier, and much smoother, if some major forces (likely unseen and unheralded) hadn't impeded their movement.

The tendency for markets to be closer in nature to equine bowel activity than rational action is disquieting to the masses, but then again-- they don't trade for a living.

-----

Not a bad week so far.

We have 4 FirstStrike Plus trades, all but the Usd/Jpy, which got very close to entering. So far we are profitable, and silver XAG continues to hold on to substantial gains.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4024, stop 1.3467.. Trade in progress.
• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3096, stop 1.2867. Trade in progress.
• gbp/jpy: Long @125.99, stop 119.38. Trade in progress.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.1450, stop 1.1674. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $2,088.64

Silver position equity: $506.00
(Current XAG price: $11.93 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,594.64

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Huge Plus Week--IFCN WK 60 -Mon-Equity: $2,568.92

So comes the exit of some hugely profitable trades.

It has been a while since we had so many big profits per market. In the Usd/Chf alone, we made more than 5 times in profit what we were risking on the trade.

Many will think these are outsized gains that can't possibly repeat, but anyone who has been trading FirstStrike for any amount of time knows that this is exactly the way the method works, lots of relatively small losses for weeks at a time and then some very big profits.

I am quite aware that I've not been posting very regularly on the site. I have been busy with my personal trading, but also-- I have little to say when trades are going well.

Trades that work take no emotional input, except perhaps to stave away the all too human desire to book a profit. I took care of that demon long ago when I discovered personally and intellectually that letting profits run was the surest way to trading success. And perhaps the hardest, as many of my friends following this site can attest.

I've recently heard from a number of new readers who are sure that this trading concept's (FSP) profits are a fluke. To that criticism I respectly suggest, "Don't trade it." At least until you are certain that we are capitalizing on a serious market edge.

Nevertheless, the IFCN account is up 413% since December of 2007, or 358% annualized. Still not bad. Without any serious drawdowns (greater than 30%) and with a plethora of long and short trades in diverse markets. A very unusual case of random success if you were trying to make that case.

Don't worry, there will definitely be many extensive and bumpy rides in the future that will make you long after the last 4 month run we've experienced. When? That's the problem all traders experience in trading, profits keep going until something fundamental changes in the market that results in changing the profitability of a large sector of traders. I doubt we are currently part of any large sector anyone is worried about as I've heard of very few other forex/currency/futures traders that are making the kind of returns displayed here.

Who knows? Maybe we will keep building capital like this for a few months longer. Either way, I recommend you figuring out a way to get some silver (or XAG) before it gets a lot more expensive. It has helped the account alot but is by no means the only reason we've been outperforming other trading concepts.

Have a great week!

Thanks for the comments/feedback you sent me about the Trader's Expo hosted by Tradersworld last week. Many of you attended and listened to my discussion about VBOs (volatility breakouts) and how it is important to hang your hat on a viable concept if you are planning to get serious and make a livelihood from the markets. The way the money comes to you from trading this way may not be pretty, but it spends just fine.

I also applaud the large group of watchers who are learning in silence, seeing the fruitage of our, and perhaps some of their own, labours; from one of the most perverse trading methodologies discovered.

-----

As of Monday, January 26, 00:00 CST – here is the status of the following trades coming in from the previous week:

Week of January 19, 2009---FirststrikePlus trades

• short eur/usd@ 1.3222, exited at 1.2924 for 298 pip profit
• short gbp/jpy@ 133.60, exited at 121.03 for 1257 pip profit
• short gbp/usd@ 1.4819, exited at 1.3605 for 1214 pip profit
• long usd/chf @ 1.1229, exited at 1.1618 for 389 pip profit
• short usd/jpy @ 90.17, exited at 88.96 for 121 pip profit

-----
OneNightStand orders for Friday, January 23, 2009
*short eur/usd @1.2823, stopped at 1.2923 for 100 pip loss.
*short gbp/jpy @119.39, stopped at 120.39 for 100 pip loss.
*short gbp/usd @1.3619, stopped at 1.3719 for 100 pip loss.

Trading account equity: $2,072.92

Silver position equity: $496.00
(Current XAG price: $11.87 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,568.92

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Trades Rise Like a Phoenix! -- IFCN Wk 59 –Mon- Equity: $2,159.09

We've got substantially larger profits in just a couple hours of trading this week.

How? Courtesy of the FirstStrikePlus trades from last week.

Early this morning the dollar's strength became a wave, clicking us into a long usd/chf and a short usd/jpy trade, both with very small stoplosses meaning we have on substantial size for once. Either we will be stopped out quickly or this could be a big week.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• gbp/usd: Short @1.4819, stop 1.5045. (From prev. week)
• eur/usd: Short @1.3222, stop 1.3466. (From prev. week)
• gbp/jpy: Short @133.60, stop 136.96. (From prev. week)
• usd/chf: Long @ 1.1229, stop 1.1152.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 90.17, stop 91.14.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,795.09
Silver position equity: $364.00
(Current XAG price: $11.22 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,159.09

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Dollar Stronger---IFCN WK 59 -Mon- Equity: $2,101.55

The dollar was stronger at the beginning of the previous week, yet relaxed a bit by the end of the previous week, causing trades which had decent profits to give them all up. At the end of the week the only decent profit left in the account was from silver, (XAG) which is more of an IFCN position trade than a frequent tradeable. (But, the XAG trade will likely be the biggest profit ever taken in this "originally" small account when we exit at extreme prices.)

Because of the lack of profits in the 3 FSP trades still on board for Monday morning's open at 00:00 CST (06:00 GMT), we are not able to exit until we have a profitable weekly open or we legitimately get stopped out, or reversed.

-----
As of Monday, January 19, 00:00 CST – here is the status of the following trades coming in from the previous week:

Week of January 12, 2009---FirststrikePlus trades

• gbp/usd: Short @1.4819. Trade in progress.
• eur/usd: Short @1.3222. Trade in progress.
• gbp/jpy: Short @133.60. Trade in progress.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 88.80, stopped at 90.59 for 179 pip loss.

-----
OneNightStand orders for Friday, January 16, 2009
*none
-----
Trading account equity: $1,741.55
Silver position equity: $360.00
(Current XAG price: $11.20 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,101.55

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Is the Dollar the New Yen? -- IFCN Wk 54 –Mon- Equity: $1,970.53

The euro traded near 9 week highs against the dollar on the belief that the Federal Reserve will cut the target rate for overnight lending to a record lows. If the Fed keeps lowering interest it will make virtually every other currency a carry trade against the dollar, similar to the situation that existed with the Japanese Yen for so many years.

If this indeed starts turning the other currencies into “buys”, there could be some interesting developments and opportunities for forex traders. “Carry trade” business is one of the major sources of income for international hedge funds. Allying ourselves in their direction; if the trends support the position-- can be a very profitable circumstance.

-----

After exiting our profitable positions from last week, all that remained was an unprofitable position in Gbp/Jpy. We got stopped out at 138.23 and then shortly after got long via FirstStrikePlus.

We got our 4 existing FirstStrikePlus trades rather quickly today. Though currently profitable, after seeing ample profits last week, it wouldn't be surprising for the market to take a breather. Nevertheless, we are positioned for more weakness in the dollar.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• gbp/usd: Long @1.5173, stop 1.4993.. Trade in progress.
• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3676, stop 1.3417. Trade in progress.
• gbp/jpy: Short @133.04, stopped at 138.23.
• gbp/jpy: Long @139.23, stop 135.91. Trade in progress.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.1582, stop 1.1763. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,730.53

Silver position equity: $240.00
(Current XAG price: $10.60 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,970.53

Another new equity high!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Dollar Weakens FSP Responds! -- IFCN Wk 53 –Wed- Equity: $1,767.89.

New equity watermark today! $1.767.89. That is a 253.5% increase in the last 53 weeks. At the very least-- better than T-Bills.

Any idea how many trades we took in the last year, both FirstStrike and OneNightStand-- ending this Monday morning? Definitely more than enough to be statistically viable.

-----

The euro strengthened in the last two trading days, trading near two week highs vs. the dollar as worldwide financial maneuverings to mitigate bank insolvency appear to be working.

Canada, Europe, the U.K., Sweden, Australia and New Zealand all lowered their interest rates this month. Few as much as the dollar. Last week the Fed auctioned off Billions in T-Bills with a 0% interest rate and sold all of them, almost instantly.

The only reason anyone would buy a T-Bill for zero return is so they could put it on a balance sheet. The idiocracy continues.

Right now, the Eur/Usd is one of the world's best carry trades, when you account for spreads and ease of transaction. A full 100,000 unit contract returns around $1.40/day. At the very least, now it doesn't cost you anything overnight to hold the Euro.

Maybe the market may begin to figure out that mania high prices for the dollar are just as dangerous as mania low prices were a few months ago.

-----

We almost got filled on the FSP buy of Gbp/Jpy @ 140.82. Who knows, maybe later in the week? Still no fills on either the FSP Usd/Jpy buy OR sell. Maybe it'll just be a blank for the week. We have decent action in the Euro and Swiss. Could be a big week.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.2859, stop 1.2739. Trade in progress.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5007, stop 1.4651. Trade in progress.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.2090, stop 1.2221. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,599.90.

Silver position equity: $168.00
(Current XAG price: $10.24 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,767.89.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

The Trend..., Is! -- IFCN Wk 52 –Tue- Equity: $1,549.88.

After Monday's opening and the taking of a couple of profits from Sterling dominated trades – the Pound promptly started falling decisively, triggering the FirstStrike Plus sales of gbp/usd and the gbp/jpy. At the same time, we received a new sale in usd/jpy seen below.

While these profitable trades were stacking up, the XAG position took a lot of heat, silver dropping $1.00/oz from Friday's close. Just when you thought it might be safer to be in the markets....

About the serious profits we've logged in the IFCN “challenge” accout--- we're apparently not alone.

According to Parker Global Strategies LLC., Foreign-exchange funds had their biggest monthly returns in October since 2003.

John W. Henry International Foreign Exchange Program of Boca Raton, Florida, was the top-performing fund in October, gaining 32.7 percent.

Parker Global further went on to say, “The month saw a continuation of the dollar appreciation due to a combination of a flight to safety out of risky emerging-market currencies and into the stable dollar and the hoarding of liquidity by U.S. banks, creating a vacuum of dollars.”

Most of the funds that Parker Global follow gained in October, with 46 of 71 programs reporting positive results and 25 posting losses. They added an interesting footnote: funds which are generally based on computer models gained 3.02 percent, while discretionary traders, were up only 1.43 percent as a group.

That probably has to do with the “surprise factor” which semi-mechanical methodologies profit from.

As a personal side note: John Henry, while using numerous mechanical methodologies, also uses a fair amount of discretion concerning how much size he trades. Hence, his larger than normal returns.

I congratulate JH on his success. Since he is the consumate trend follower, he obviously was selling the Euro and Pound Sterling at the same time we were.
----

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• gbp/usd: Short @ 1.5149, stop 1.5420. Trade in progress.
• eur/usd: Long @ 1.2742, stopped at 1.2585 for 157 pip loss.
• gbp/jpy: Short @144.02, stop 146.90.Trade in progress.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.2062, stop 1.2225. Trade in progress.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 94.38, stop 95.51. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,509.88

Silver position equity: $40.00
(Current XAG price: $9.60 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,549.88.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Should We Thank Mr. O. for the current Rally? -- IFCN Wk 51 –Tue- Equity: $1,686.78

Obama is being credited with the recent rally in the Stock market. It's been reported (admittedly by kooks) that he can cure cancer, make the lame walk; and now all he has to do is.., raise the dead.

He might want to start with Detroit and the current proposal for resurrecting the auto industry.

The Detroit automakers only think they have trouble right now. Nothing compared to what they'll have if more people find out how poorly they've handled their resources for decades.

The average Detroit “big 3” worker receives $72 an hour, compared to $44 an hour which non-unionized employees make at Japanese car plants in America.

These are the bloated jobs we're supposed to care about?

Wow! Yeah- we need to save those jobs by taxing the average citizen who makes $18.22/hour. (current info from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) and no health benefits.

But it gets stranger----

Thousands of laid-off auto workers get paid $31 an hour to literally sit around and do nothing all year under an existing program that will likely continue if American taxpayers bail out the American auto industry. Many “workers” have been idling for their pay for years, some even more than a decade.

The program, called "Jobs Banks," has been around for 24 years. A few “excess” auto employees choose to do community service at the “Jobs Bank”, but many just read, do crossword puzzles and watch TV all day -- or stare at the walls. Tough to take at only $31/hour....

Check out the whole "Jobs Banks" article....

---------------------------------------

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5126, stop 1.4759. Trade in progress. (Stop and reverse at 1.4759, stop 1.4975)
• eur/usd: Long @ 1.2742, stop 1.2585. Trade in progress.
• gbp/jpy: Long @145.49, stop 141.39. Trade in progress.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.2062, stop 1.2225. Trade in progress.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 95.39, stopped at 96.59 for 120 pip loss.
• usd/jpy: Long @ 96.59, stopped at 95.05 for 154 pip loss.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,526.78

Silver position equity: $160.00
(Current XAG price: $10.20 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,686.78 (NEW EQUITY HIGH)

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Show us the Money?-- IFCN Wk 50 –Tue- Equity: $1,529.10

So--- we've all heard about the billions of dollars given to banks to improve liquidity and to ease the problems with getting money back in the the financial system, via either loans or credit guarantees.

What don't we see any of that money showing up anywhere that could do any of us some good?

There is a term people need to begin understanding- “quantitative easing”. (Hint: Japan has been doing this to their money supply since 1999-- and the main reason that the word "carry trade" is on the brain of almost all forex traders.)

It is an intentional action to force huge money reserves into the banking system with the expectation that banks will eventually exchange those assets for higher-yielding assets. What if the banks just decide not to make those exchanges?

The very real risk is that the banks bestowed with all the money fail to lend the excess reserves to businesses and consumers, which only extends the frozen credit that is threatening recession in the world's major economies.
The so-called excess reserves have jumped to $363.6 billion from $2 billion in August as the Fed added to its emergency lending programs.

When and if that money starts showing upin the economy, the markets will have a chance to get back to some version of normal. It could be a wait.

If you want to understand what the Fed is doing, in his own words (Governor Ben S. Bernanke) ..., check this out! It is incredibly enlightening!

-----

The week's only FirstStrikePlus trade:

• Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2723, stop 1.2508.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,487.10

Silver position equity: $42.00
(Current XAG price: $9.61 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,529.10

See you tomorrow---

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

The Calm!-- IFCN Wk 50 –Mon- Equity: $1,479.31

The currency markets are in a self-imposed quagmire. That's fine.
If they calm down enough, when they start moving again, the potential for gain is much greater.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trade:

• Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2723, stop 1.2508.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,486.31

Silver position equity: $ -6.00
(Current XAG price: $9.37 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,479.31


Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Rangebound Trade Continues-- IFCN Wk 49 – Tue- Equity: $1,530.10

There isn't a lot of activity going on in the currencies, other than ranging trade that develops after large moves like we've seen in previous weeks. Banking institutions and trading firms are testing to see how committed their trading cohorts are to defending their positions, causing many false starts and aborted moves.

In general, it is wise to have smaller commitments when this type of market appears, and since we are positioned with trades with larger-than-normal stoploss parameters we are effectively trading with small positions. Adaptive risk works well when volatility is still relatively large, and yet allows the potential for profits when markets start trending again.

I'm all for the forex markets to congest a bit more before trending out of this area. But the markets don't care what I want. The best I can do when they are like this is just wait for my trades to execute.

Monday morning I exited two FirstStrikePlus trades profitably just after Midnight CST. Then, starting late Monday and early Tuesday, we entered 3 new trades to give us complete coverage in all 5 pairs. (See current listing below)

There were no OneNightStand trades to exit Monday morning.

FirstStrikePlus first-profitable-opening Monday exits:
*Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, exited at 1.5776 for 105 pip profit.
*Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, exited at 1.1756 for 92 pip profit.

These are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades (including 2 trades from last week):

• Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2681, stop 1.2917. Trade in progress.
• Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 160.27. Trade in progress.
• Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5532, stop 1.5879. Trade in progress.
• Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1853, stop 1.1721. Trade in progress.
• Usd/Jpy: Short @ 97.18, stop 100.15. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.
Trading account equity: $1,438.10

Silver position equity: $92.00
(Current XAG price: $9.86 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,530.10

We've seen a lot of swinging prices in the XAG. As some have noted, the current XAG position unnaturally affects the Challenge account. I am very aware of that.

As risk/reward concerns are the stuff that traders live and die by, I know that the silver position is a valuable addition to my account, and very likely a position trade that can add incredible value vs. the short term risk and volatility negative effects. This may not suit you however.

If you do not wish to trade the XAG, don't. I was able to add it because of the outsized profits the Challenge account garnered in its regular trading this year-- and the risk/reward was so biased in my favor. I would rather have some of my excess balance holding silver than just sit there unused.

If and when silver is over $20, the human mind will be asking, “Why didn't we pick up more silver when it was under $10/ounce?”

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Dollar weakens Dramatically! IFCN Wk 48 – Tue- Equity: $1,577.92.

It's nice to see the Eur/Usd,the Gbp/Usd and Gbp/Jpy go higher-- even if FSP trades this week are positioned the wrong way.

Not that I like the Challenge account losing money, but it is good to see the currency pairs holding well against the dollar – right in the price area where they should. Besides, my other accounts are enjoying this burst of activity. Notably: London Squeeze, which got me seriously long the Eur/Usd early this morning near 1.2725.

And in the Challenge account, XAG is helping with some of the fallout by gaining against the dollar. It has worked amazingly well as a ballast in these fluctuating days. Albeit, a heavy one sometimes.

Here are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades:

• Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2569, stopped out at 1.2957 for a 388 pip loss.
• Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 164.62. Trade in progress.
• Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, stop 1.6439. Trade in progress.
• Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, stop 1.1460. Trade in progress.
• Usd/Jpy: Still no current trade

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,439.92.

Silver position equity: $138.00
(Current XAG price: $10.09 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,577.92.

We have a long week ahead. I don't have high expectations for the remaining trades.

And, with the election's likely result, the country can now start sliding faster into a hell from which there is little escape. Which will be bullish on commodities and foreign currencies.

Have as good of a day as possible.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

FirstStrikePlus Reversal Protocol-- IFCN Wk 48 – Mon- $1,563.21

We're getting trades, just not very profitable ones. But then again, our exits of last week haven't been too bad and the FirstStrikePlus concept of reversing existing trades has proven to be cost saving-- saving of the total stop being hit on the previous losing position. And XAG is holding.

I've received numerous questions about the protocol of reversing a trade in a pair from long to short before the stop is hit in the first trade--- perhaps it was unclear for you too. The explanation follows after the questioning email.

(Thanks for the question—Mr. E.)

Hi Mr. Rensink!

I have a question about First Strike Plus. First I
want to thank you for your Strategie, it works very
well. I have some different Brokers, one is Oanda, and
if we trade First Strike Plus, it is possible that
there is a Long Trade running and then we'll open also a short
trade, like this week in EUR/USD.

Let's say I have a running long position with 900 units
and I open a short position with 1000 units, the
problem at Oanda is that I only have the difference of
100 units running, because hedging is not possible at
Oanda.

Do you trade the other position on another account? Or
do you only trade the difference of these two orders?
I think you trade both orders at different accounts,
but I am not sure.

There is no difference as long as both orders are
open, but when one is closed I don't have running the
full unit size.

E------

Answer:
Hello E-----

If you are long a pair from one week, like the Gbp/Usd pair last week--
and you haven't been stopped out yet--- when the next trade in the pair
is signaled as a short --- you exit the long pair from last week at the
same order that you are now going short. This way, you are getting out of
the last trade which was not working anyway with a smaller loss than you
would if the original stop got hit.

Does this make sense to you?

This is a stop and reverse concept. I did allude to it in the
FirstStrikePlus material, but others besides yourself had trouble
fereting out the information.

In the case you mentioned, all you have to do place the sell order for
1900 units, 900 will cancel out the previous long and then you will have
a short of 1000 units.

This should clear up your understanding of the concept. No hedging is
necessary - the method can be traded in the same account. You only will
have on- at most- one trade in one direction per pair.

Best wishes.

JR

I trust this will clear up some of the confusion.

This morning I was able to exit two of the 4 remaining FirstStrikePlus trades profitably just after Midnight CST. The other two got exited when the FirstStrikePlus numbers for today were executed to the downside, as can be seen below:

Last Week's trades-
Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.2903, exited at 1.2569 for 334 pips loss. (originally 414 pip risk)
Gbp/Jpy: Long @ 159.69, exited at 1.6242 for 273 pips profit.
Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.6412, exited at 1.5881 for 531 pips loss. (originally 902 pip risk)
Usd/Jpy: Long @ 97.26, exited at 98.49 for 123 pips profit.

Here are the current week's FirstStrikePlus trades:

• Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.2569, stop 1.2957. Trade in progress.
• Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 154.84, stop 164.62. Trade in progress.
• Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.5881, stop 1.6439. Trade in progress.
• Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1664, stop 1.1460. Trade in progress.
• Usd/Jpy: No current trade

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.
Trading account equity: $1,465.21

Silver position equity: $98.00
(Current XAG price: $9.89 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,563.21

Unfortunately, this trading recap is getting tedious and complicated. I will find a simpler way to relate the details of the account.

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

We Finally Got a Trade this Week! -IFCN Wk 47 – Tue - $1,438.76

After last week's moves, I wouldn't have been at all surprised to get NO trades this week in FirstStrikePlus. When you vary your buy and sell points due to the previous week's volatility and the previous week was the week from Gehenna, the market has to do a serious move to get a trade the next week.

We have one.

The Usd/Jpy rallied up to hit our buy price at 97.26. I don't have a lot of size on this trade because of the risk being 462 pips, but I also wouldn't be surprised if it turned out to be a winner by next week. The markets have been pretty oversold!

Most of the day the trade was profitable, but this evening the Usd/Jpy has slid back. It is a long week. Maybe we'll get another trade. Perhaps short the Usd/Chf....

I'm sure most of you watched the XAG drop heavily this morning to $8.45 and then recover to be up on the day. It pays to have a strong constitution when dealing in silver.

The current week's FirstStrikePlus trade:

• Usd/Jpy: Long @ 97.26., stop 92.64. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete ruleset for effective trade management.

Current trade equity is: $1,471.76

Special Silver long position:
Silver position equity: (-$33.00 )
(Current XAG price: $9.17 – 100 unit position average: $9.50)

TOTAL EQUITY: $1,438.76

Have a good evening.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

One Night Stand trades Successful! -IFCN Wk 47 – Mon - $1,430.86

After this morning's open at 00:00 CST, I exited the 4 surviving OneNightStand trades from Friday. The summary follows-

OneNightStand 08/24/08 entries:
*eur/usd: Short @1.2728, out at 1.2566 for 162 pips profit
*gbp/jpy: Short @152.82, out at 147.20 for 562 pips profit
*gbp/usd: Short @1.6029, out at 1.5717 for 312 pips profit
*usd/jpy: Short @95.33, out at 93.59 for 174 pips profit
Total ONS Profits: $ 84.70
(Total increase from Friday's equity: $45.50)

Current trade equity is: $1,473.86

Special Silver long position:
Silver position equity: (-$43.00 )
(Current XAG price: $9.07 – 100 unit position average: $9.50)

TOTAL EQUITY: $1,430.86

After all that volatility last week, it isn't surprising that there are still no FirstStrikePlus orders filled this week. I would be ok with none of them getting filled, but it's likely that at least a couple might, the most likely being the Usd/Chf trades which are only 128 pips away from this morning's open. Contrast that with the Gbp/Jpy pair which has buy/sell orders spaced more than 1200 pips from the open. Last week's move in the pound/yen was spectacular and had a historically large weekly range. It would be best if we didn't get a trade in that market until things quiet down.

I thought it would be instructive to compare last week's actual results trading FirstStrikePlus with what the actual system returns would be exiting on the first-profitable Monday's open -- which would've been this morning's open. If I had waited till this morning's open to exit, in every case except one – the long Usd/Chf trade – there would have been a substantial increase in profits. See below---

Mechanical entry/exit of last week's FSP: (*) is improvement over actual results
Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.3367, exited at 1.2593 for 774 pips profit (+212)
Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 174.07, exited at 1.4764 for 2643 pips profit (+896)
Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.7193, exited at 1.5736 for 1457 pips profit (+354)
Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1401, exited at 1.1607 for 206 pips profit (-66 )
Usd/Jpy: Short @ 100.95, exited at 93.80 for 715 pips profit (+352 )

Total losses: 0 pips
Total profits: 5795 pips (+1748)
Net profit: $280.95
Total additional gain vs. actual results: $77.89 (38% better results if I had held to Monday's open)

This is of course just one example, and it is not likely that we'll see many more weeks like the last one. As mentioned last week, with the action we saw- it became more of a gamble to be in the market at all. Even though we could have improved our profits by staying in, it could have easily worked out negatively for us.

This week may be a good one for reflection. And maybe a little rest.

This weekend I am going to be in Las Vegas for the London Squeeze workshop, Saturday Nov. 1st. I am looking forward to meeting the traders, some who've come from around the world. If this event is anything like the previous one, it will be beneficial for all of us.

Have a good evening.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sometimes the Best Position Is.... -IFCN Wk 46 – Mon – $1,283.01

a small position....

Smaller positions with larger stops are best when markets are this fluid. This was a good week to start trading FirstStrikePlus.

After this morning's open (Monday) at 00:00 CST, there were no OneNightStand trades to exit. Just the new entries for FirstStrike Plus. If you haven't already, download the volatility-adjusted ruleset here --

Here are the IFCN entries for this week's FirstStrikePlus trades:

• Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.3367, stop 1.3538. Trade in progress..
• Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 174.07, stop 178.65. Trade in progress.
• Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.7193, stop 1.7452. Trade in progress..
• Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1401, stop 1.1302. Trade in progress.
• Usd/Jpy: -No trade yet-

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete ruleset for effective trade management.

Current trade equity is: $1,237.01

Silver position equity: $46.00
(Current XAG price: $9.96 – 100 unit position average: $9.50)

TOTAL Equity: $1,283.01

Placing your orders may take courage, but that is the only way you will be able to profit from these extraordinary moves.

I'm sorry I haven't been able upload these posts as timely as I would have preferred. Business has had to take priority. There have been many funds needing technical assistance over the past weeks, with me captive on the phone for most waking hours.. I don't particularly enjoy this part of the market fallout.

See you tomorrow.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

The Quiet Before the Storm! -IFCN Wk 45 – Tue – Equity $1,268.56

The dollar seems to be stopped by the global recapitalization plan. Surprised?

You shouldn't be. It is the classic working out of the “Buy the news, sell the fact!” principle that works regardless of the side you happen to be on. In this case it was the foreign currencies being traded in for dollars as long as panic reigned, and now that the panic is basically over..., they're not continuing their dollar buy programs.

After Friday's tremendous currency capitulations, we sit in narrowing ranges above the lows waiting to see if there is going to be another spike.

That is why we follow our method, and FirstStrike has us long the Sterling and Gbp/Jpy, and long Usd/Jpy, the only long Dollar trade that is currently working.

I expect the dollar to lose ground from here, with intermittent foray's like a border collie in a herd of sheep. Because that is what is expected of it.


The US dollar tends to gain during times of risk – large entities feel being buried in the world's largest volume financial currency is a protection of sorts. That perception is a reality we have to accept. For now.

That perception will not likely last forever.

Werewolf Alert! The XAG (silver) is looking like it may have stopped going down too. This is a very good area to pick some up for the long haul - if you can handle the risk holding it to below $8.00. On Friday it got as low as $9.40 before it recoiled back up. Panic did a number on some large hedge funds. Now that the price is down here it is up to us to pick up what we can afford.

----------

This week's current, working FirstStrike trades:

• Gbp/Jpy: Long @ 171.74, stop 169.94.
• Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.7119, stop 1.6999.
• Usd/Jpy: Long @ 101.02, stop 99.82.

FirstStrike trades not stopped out before Friday-- exit on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current trade equity is: $1,268.56.

Have a good day.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!