The last two weeks of December reminded us demonstrably what trends are supposed to look like.
It's about time..., and very welcome.
About the year's end valuation of the Challenge account:
1330 oz. of silver @ $17.93 = $23,846.90
Equity Challenge acct = $1,776.38
Total = $25,623.28
For those of you who still have copies of FirstStrike / FirstStrike Plus, you might want to re-read them. Their premise is timeless.
2020 promises to be a profitable year.
Joel
Tuesday, December 31, 2019
Monday, December 31, 2018
2018 Comes to an End. Great Moves Ahead....
This year has been momentous. Traders have dropped by the thousands.
Get ready for some profitable moves next year.
(to be continued ---)
Get ready for some profitable moves next year.
(to be continued ---)
Sunday, December 31, 2017
524 Weeks in -- $24,412.98 Equity -- Up 6.3% For The Year
I still working on the 2017 recap of the 10 year anniversary of the Challenge account.
It's been a great year. Good changes in the U.S.A. which speak well for potential market shifts and big opportunities earth-wide in the next few years.
Until a little later....
Joel Rensink
It's been a great year. Good changes in the U.S.A. which speak well for potential market shifts and big opportunities earth-wide in the next few years.
Silver value: $22,636.60 (Spot price 12/31/17 - $17.02/oz. Total: 1,330 troy oz.)
Forex account: $1,776.38
---------------------------------------
Total: $24,412.98Until a little later....
Joel Rensink
Saturday, December 31, 2016
472 Weeks in -- $22,963.28 Equity -- Up 13% For The Year...
Even though 13% gain in equity sounds OK, especially compared to the pitiful gains by CTAs this year - all of it was the gain in value of the 1330 oz.of silver being held over from last year.
It's been just over 9 years since I started this Infiniteyield Forex blog. Of course, the bulk of posts were in the first couple of years.
I appreciate the feedback I still receive from traders that read it back then and actually tried out the concepts discussed here. There is no substitute for proving your own edge and then trading it. Only real, lasting, successful traders do that.
Only by the crucible of actually taking trades based on the faith of your proven convictions gets the success of having the correct (and large) positions on mammoth trends that others are too fearful of placing even token positions.
Most professional traders start being successful (and stay professional) by trading relatively simple trading systems/concepts.
Maybe they end up trading multiples of them and use sophisticated money-management, but their core trading systems tend to remain uncomplicated.
The best thing about simple systems is that they are not hard to test.
And one of the main reasons that systems like OneNightStand and FirstStrike keep generating profits for so many. They're robust and SIMPLE.
I get emails every week from someone somewhere that's been trading ONS and/or FS for 5 years and they've been making $$$ in the Euro or Pound. And then they've some questions about whether it is OK to [fill in the blank...]
I don't really mind all that much, but the reason I bring it up is this: Traders make money from taking opportunities that are only available for a very short period of time. We must be opportunistic in how we expect to profit from those situations. The textbook definition of opportunist is:
"Opportunists are people who see a chance to gain some advantage from a situation. An opportunist seizes every opportunity to improve things for himself."
That could mean taking ONS and finding "robust" ways to profit from it by changing the official rules of the system. Very possible - if you have valid reasoning and proof behind your alterations. Not just optimizing the parameters until your backtest shows a higher return.
Trading systems are just systems that profit from (human) behavioral tendencies. If you are able to significantly "drill down" to an even more "telling" behavioral tendency..., so be it. May the profits accrue.
I'll show you a great example.
Typically ONS is used for trading currencies like forex. At least that is where it was discovered many years ago.
Using a little out-of-the-box thinking would get you thinking about how ONS might perform on the precious metals, because they were indeed the first official "currencies" used by humans. To the point that there are millions of rational individuals, who right now think that gold and silver should be backing their country's currency. Or actually be the currency that everything buy-able should be denominated in.
Trading Gold with ONS works great . I've been trading it (along with my standard portfolio of currencies) according to the basic rules for over twenty years. And with a deviation I'm going to show you today for the last 13.
ONS Example trades on Comex Gold in 2016:
Gold ONS Equity Curve (theoretical) 40+ years-- :
Gold tends to have 10 - 12 trades a year in ONS. That's taking trades in both directions
.
Pretty decent. But there's another component that can bring even more edge to your profit equation.
Finite vs. Infinite
Even though a large amount of the easily obtained gold that exists on earth has been brought to the surface and is sitting in a vault somewhere, there is still plenty to be found. Maybe deeper or in trace amounts. Nevertheless, there still is just a finite amount on this earth. No more, no less.
How about forex currencies?
Since they are fiat currencies, they're absolutely designed to have infinite quantities created -- at will. If the governing body of a central bank determines that they want more Euros, they push a button and BAM..., you've got more Euros. Same with Dollars or Yen or British Pounds.
Precious metals are always priced in some currency like the USD or Euro, or Pound. Since gold's total quantity is absolutely finite and all currencies it is denominated in are demonstrably infinite -- it is obvious that gold will be forced to rise vs currencies over any significant period of time.
Which should mean that Gold buy signals of via simple robust methods like ONS should have more potential reward vs. risk.
Gold ONS Equity Curve (theoretical) 40+ years--LONG TRADES ONLY:
For this reason I significantly increase my position size for my long ONS Gold trades. I get greater profitability, better risk/reward and fewer trades per year (about 5 or 6 on average), reducing my exposure.
Trading doesn't have to be difficult. Just real data and statistics based on reliable human behavior.
Thinking helps too.
One question I've received numerous times over the last few years is, "Why am I not keeping up the Challenge account and trading even a portion of it in Forex if the methods still work?"
Great question.
The methods (ONS and FS) still work and I actually think we are headed for some very exciting times with them starting with the conservative presidency of Donald Trump. Money should finally start flowing to opportunity like we haven't seen in a decade.
I'm not trading the Infiniteyield Forex funds (and the subsequent reporting of said returns) because of regulations imposed since the account was started. I was advised to back off by my attorney after similar websites received warnings from the CFTC since the Dodd-Frank Act was enacted thanks to everybody's buddy - Mr. O.
So, I've been trading my own funds -- as happy as one could in a severe environment that discouraged free trade for the last 6 - 7 years. I know many of you understand exactly.
Best of wishes on the New Year - 2017. May it be the best ever.
Joel
leonardo@infiniteyield.com
PS: Below I have the official summary of position equity for the end of 2016. Cheers, everyone. JR
Quick summary:
It's been just over 9 years since I started this Infiniteyield Forex blog. Of course, the bulk of posts were in the first couple of years.
I appreciate the feedback I still receive from traders that read it back then and actually tried out the concepts discussed here. There is no substitute for proving your own edge and then trading it. Only real, lasting, successful traders do that.
Only by the crucible of actually taking trades based on the faith of your proven convictions gets the success of having the correct (and large) positions on mammoth trends that others are too fearful of placing even token positions.
Most professional traders start being successful (and stay professional) by trading relatively simple trading systems/concepts.
Maybe they end up trading multiples of them and use sophisticated money-management, but their core trading systems tend to remain uncomplicated.
The best thing about simple systems is that they are not hard to test.
And one of the main reasons that systems like OneNightStand and FirstStrike keep generating profits for so many. They're robust and SIMPLE.
I get emails every week from someone somewhere that's been trading ONS and/or FS for 5 years and they've been making $$$ in the Euro or Pound. And then they've some questions about whether it is OK to [fill in the blank...]
I don't really mind all that much, but the reason I bring it up is this: Traders make money from taking opportunities that are only available for a very short period of time. We must be opportunistic in how we expect to profit from those situations. The textbook definition of opportunist is:
"Opportunists are people who see a chance to gain some advantage from a situation. An opportunist seizes every opportunity to improve things for himself."
That could mean taking ONS and finding "robust" ways to profit from it by changing the official rules of the system. Very possible - if you have valid reasoning and proof behind your alterations. Not just optimizing the parameters until your backtest shows a higher return.
Trading systems are just systems that profit from (human) behavioral tendencies. If you are able to significantly "drill down" to an even more "telling" behavioral tendency..., so be it. May the profits accrue.
I'll show you a great example.
Typically ONS is used for trading currencies like forex. At least that is where it was discovered many years ago.
Using a little out-of-the-box thinking would get you thinking about how ONS might perform on the precious metals, because they were indeed the first official "currencies" used by humans. To the point that there are millions of rational individuals, who right now think that gold and silver should be backing their country's currency. Or actually be the currency that everything buy-able should be denominated in.
Trading Gold with ONS works great . I've been trading it (along with my standard portfolio of currencies) according to the basic rules for over twenty years. And with a deviation I'm going to show you today for the last 13.
ONS Example trades on Comex Gold in 2016:
Gold ONS Equity Curve (theoretical) 40+ years-- :
Gold tends to have 10 - 12 trades a year in ONS. That's taking trades in both directions
Pretty decent. But there's another component that can bring even more edge to your profit equation.
Finite vs. Infinite
Even though a large amount of the easily obtained gold that exists on earth has been brought to the surface and is sitting in a vault somewhere, there is still plenty to be found. Maybe deeper or in trace amounts. Nevertheless, there still is just a finite amount on this earth. No more, no less.
How about forex currencies?
Since they are fiat currencies, they're absolutely designed to have infinite quantities created -- at will. If the governing body of a central bank determines that they want more Euros, they push a button and BAM..., you've got more Euros. Same with Dollars or Yen or British Pounds.
Precious metals are always priced in some currency like the USD or Euro, or Pound. Since gold's total quantity is absolutely finite and all currencies it is denominated in are demonstrably infinite -- it is obvious that gold will be forced to rise vs currencies over any significant period of time.
Which should mean that Gold buy signals of via simple robust methods like ONS should have more potential reward vs. risk.
Gold ONS Equity Curve (theoretical) 40+ years--LONG TRADES ONLY:
For this reason I significantly increase my position size for my long ONS Gold trades. I get greater profitability, better risk/reward and fewer trades per year (about 5 or 6 on average), reducing my exposure.
Trading doesn't have to be difficult. Just real data and statistics based on reliable human behavior.
Thinking helps too.
One question I've received numerous times over the last few years is, "Why am I not keeping up the Challenge account and trading even a portion of it in Forex if the methods still work?"
Great question.
The methods (ONS and FS) still work and I actually think we are headed for some very exciting times with them starting with the conservative presidency of Donald Trump. Money should finally start flowing to opportunity like we haven't seen in a decade.
I'm not trading the Infiniteyield Forex funds (and the subsequent reporting of said returns) because of regulations imposed since the account was started. I was advised to back off by my attorney after similar websites received warnings from the CFTC since the Dodd-Frank Act was enacted thanks to everybody's buddy - Mr. O.
So, I've been trading my own funds -- as happy as one could in a severe environment that discouraged free trade for the last 6 - 7 years. I know many of you understand exactly.
Best of wishes on the New Year - 2017. May it be the best ever.
Joel
leonardo@infiniteyield.com
PS: Below I have the official summary of position equity for the end of 2016. Cheers, everyone. JR
Quick summary:
Silver value: $21,186.90
Forex account: $1,776.38
---------------------------------------
Total: $22,963.28
Thursday, December 31, 2015
Trading is Not As Hard as You THINK
I love getting up in the middle of the
night to find that the market is at an extreme for the week and it's
been pausing for an hour or two; then continues on its way. A low risk entry and potentially unlimited upside.
In the last 2 weeks of December I cease
my trading. Since markets are a "human behavior"
phenomena, just about all the stupidity for the year has already been
expended by mid-December, and everyone [rational] who trades has
either booked their year's profits or accepted that they aren't going to
recoup their losses until 2016.
The few irrational confirmed losers
that feel the need to trade past the 15th are welcome to whatever
profits I might miss from their passing my way. Trading statistics
have proven it too, so feel free to avoid the anemic volatility and
waste of time playing a lowered-edge environment.
And have an extra single malt or two
over the two weeks. Preferably an 18 year old Macallan, recommended
it to me by Barry Eisler- known for his John Rain series. Thanks
Barry.
Trading is Not Hard
How you think about yourself, the
markets and its other participants really helps you maintain an
overwhelming edge.
In an interview Paul Tudor Jones was
asked about his overall trading philosophy.
His reply:
I have very strong views of the
long-run direction of all markets. I also have a very short-term
horizon for pain. As a result, frequently, I may try repeated trades
from the long side over a period of weeks in a market which continues
to move lower.
When it was suggested that it sounded
like he was performing a series of "probing trades" before
he hit gold...
He replied:
I consider myself a premier
market opportunist. That means I develop an idea on the market and
pursue it from a very-low-risk standpoint until I have repeatedly
been proven wrong, or until I change my viewpoint.
The reason I mention this is due to his
comment about pursuing the market from a very-low-risk-standpoint.
Whether you do this from a trending standpoint (my preference)
or a counter-trend point of view; the fact that you are doing
it completely cognizant of the risk and make that part of your series
of actions - is why your odds of success rise significantly over
competitors who H-O-P-E that the market will go their way every time
they put on a trade.
There are a lot of them - thankfully.
Even governments get wrong minded. As large and as wrong as they can
get; they represent Trillions in total profits-to-the-prepared when
they're wrong.That's why trading is still a great feeding ground for
prepared speculators who have their monkey under control.
Knowing without a doubt that you will
act correctly when something big happens makes you the odds-on
favorite in the race.
Over the next week, see if you can
round up a copy of Zen in the Markets, by Edward Toppel. A perfect
read this time of year, even if you've read it before. It'll get your
mind right for the beginning of 2016.
ZITM is great not because it tells you
the secret of making profits from the market. But because it lets
you realize that you already know how and then facilitates you to do
it.
Ed came up with some great TradeStation
software that emulated what he wrote in the book for the E-mini S&P.
I know that a few tried using it, but I doubt anyone does any
longer.
You have to have absolute faith in the concept that the
market knows better than you where it is going.You turn it on and
it buys the market if it goes up and turns around and shorts the
market if it goes down, and then long..., and then short.... Until
you either lose your account or make a ton of money.
If you do a tick-by-tick simulation
over many years..., always-in-the-market; it is slightly profitable
after commissions. But where it was REALLY profitable was when you are in a well-defined trend, the market is just paused-- and then it
takes off again. What an idea to trade only at those times!!!!
If you haven't read Zen in the
Markets; make a point of it. Let me know if you can't get a
copy.
We are at a serious juncture in the
Forex markets.
Oil prices are as low in real dollars as they've been
for decades. Same with most commodities, and gold and silver.
Countries (and currencies) that depend on commodity sales for their
financial health are affected negatively. When commodities bottom
and turn up, so do their respective currencies. We'll be watching
the Aussie and Canadian Dollars closely this year.
Speaking of silver, the 1330 ounces of
silver carried over from last year currently have a liquidation value
of $18,526.90 (based on the 12/31/15 spot price of $13.93).
In the last few weeks I took some low
risk breakouts in the AudUsd and the GbpJpy that I am holding over to
the new year. And ONS has been treating us well this year.
I wish that I had been even more
attentive to the Challenge account, as I'm sure I could have doubled
the profits very easily. The forex side of the Challenge account
from 2014 was $1,156.60, and we added an additional $619.78 this
year.
Quick summary:
Silver value: $18,526.90
Forex account: $1,776.38
---------------------------------------
Total: $20,303.28
Still significantly above the $500 (40
times initial capital) we started with, but very significantly below the peak of over
$50K a few years ago. Since big money is made in the fullness of a
major trend I have no doubt the financial mistakes of numerous
countries will provide some great opportunities and launch us into new
equity highs.
I encourage you to take note of a quote
by ― Sun Tzu, from The Art of War:
“If you know the enemy and know
yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you
know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will
also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you
will succumb in every battle.”
Knowing that there are things that can't be known-- is
valuable too.
If I KNEW that silver would be at
$13.93 today back in early 2010, I wouldn't have as much silver in
the Challenge account. But I do know from history that when the
rush into metal starts, it can be fast and furious and very difficult
to accrue. And having actual physical silver, while currently a
less-preferred investment globally, is part of a larger risk/reward
scenario – for me.
Fortunately, even with imperfect
knowledge of the future, knowing how and having the WILL to trade
your specific assets precisely is more than enough for any success
you could desire.
Best wishes to you in 2016.
Joel
leonardo@infiniteyield.com
PS: Check back in a week or so. I'll post some data that I think you'll find useful. JR
Wednesday, December 31, 2014
2014 Ends - The Dollar is Strong, But For How Long?
I thought I would post a year-end wrap-up in this "long in the tooth" blog to let those who still check it once in a while can see that I'm still alive and trading. Most of my attention has been focused on my personal trading and supporting some up-and-coming niche hedge funds. In both avenues my efforts have been successful.
It was a good year in most aspects. No thanks to current politicians and anti-market types. Socialism and other "high control" governments are trying to make it as difficult as possible for free markets to operate as they should.
Notwithstanding, we've got some real market trends in place. The dollar is strong vs. almost any currency out there: AUD, NZD, JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP, CAD, MXN (Mexican Peso) and precious metals.
Trading OneNightStand and trailing a portion of the positions on strong follow-through trades after the beginning of July resulted in very reasonable gains. At one point in mid-October, the account was at $1,289.21. With a lot of back and forth towards year-end some reduction in return was inevitable. Currently, the forex side of the Challenge account is $1,156.60.
Not so good on the silver side of the Challenge account.
The 1330 ounces of silver carried over from last year currently have a liquidation value of $20,841.10 (based on the 12/31/14 spot price of $15.67).
Commodity prices, of which oil is a huge percentage, have all dropped significantly this year relative to the dollar. Since May, Crude Oil prices have dropped in half. Which didn't help silver and gold values at all. It is really amazing that silver didn't fall more with the fallout in commodities. Maybe it will. Either way, I have no interest in liquidating any of the silver the Challenge account has accumulated.
Large shifts in value between asset classes and capital inflows into others (like the US stock market as of late) cause new trends to begin and existing trends to continue. So keep selling that Euro for awhile yet.
Quick summary:
Silver value: $20,841.10
Forex account: $1,156.60
----------------------------------
Total: $21,997.70
This year I may trade some additional breakout setups to increase returns on some of these trends we're seeing. I'll post something if/when I start.
ONS is still working of course. A number of hardy ONS and FirstStrike followers have been in steady contact with me and have also had a decent year. It is pretty obvious that there are trends going when a currency is falling vs the dollar for 8 weeks like we saw in the Euro. Still, many traders had a hard time believing the moves were just more than simple corrections.
A person needs a method that has limited risk and open ended outlier potential to profit from markets primarily dictated by chaos theory. Which forex and commodity markets most definitely are.
Best wishes on 2015.
I will be thinking of you.
Joel
It was a good year in most aspects. No thanks to current politicians and anti-market types. Socialism and other "high control" governments are trying to make it as difficult as possible for free markets to operate as they should.
Notwithstanding, we've got some real market trends in place. The dollar is strong vs. almost any currency out there: AUD, NZD, JPY, EUR, CHF, GBP, CAD, MXN (Mexican Peso) and precious metals.
Trading OneNightStand and trailing a portion of the positions on strong follow-through trades after the beginning of July resulted in very reasonable gains. At one point in mid-October, the account was at $1,289.21. With a lot of back and forth towards year-end some reduction in return was inevitable. Currently, the forex side of the Challenge account is $1,156.60.
Not so good on the silver side of the Challenge account.
The 1330 ounces of silver carried over from last year currently have a liquidation value of $20,841.10 (based on the 12/31/14 spot price of $15.67).
Commodity prices, of which oil is a huge percentage, have all dropped significantly this year relative to the dollar. Since May, Crude Oil prices have dropped in half. Which didn't help silver and gold values at all. It is really amazing that silver didn't fall more with the fallout in commodities. Maybe it will. Either way, I have no interest in liquidating any of the silver the Challenge account has accumulated.
Large shifts in value between asset classes and capital inflows into others (like the US stock market as of late) cause new trends to begin and existing trends to continue. So keep selling that Euro for awhile yet.
Quick summary:
Silver value: $20,841.10
Forex account: $1,156.60
----------------------------------
Total: $21,997.70
This year I may trade some additional breakout setups to increase returns on some of these trends we're seeing. I'll post something if/when I start.
ONS is still working of course. A number of hardy ONS and FirstStrike followers have been in steady contact with me and have also had a decent year. It is pretty obvious that there are trends going when a currency is falling vs the dollar for 8 weeks like we saw in the Euro. Still, many traders had a hard time believing the moves were just more than simple corrections.
A person needs a method that has limited risk and open ended outlier potential to profit from markets primarily dictated by chaos theory. Which forex and commodity markets most definitely are.
Best wishes on 2015.
I will be thinking of you.
Joel
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
2013 Ends and The Forex Markets are Back - With Silver In the Tank! Challenge Account at $26,382
It's been a long while since I've been regular here. It's good to be back. There are some great opportunities facing us this next year.
It has been 316 weeks since the Challenge account had its first trade. Or 6 years, 24 days. So the challenge of getting to $150K + in a shade less than 4 years is still on. It would have helped tremendously if I had any idea what this socialist-leaning presidency had in mind for us traders, but ultimately, as long as the freedom to trade forex is not limited any further, the odds strongly favor hitting the mark and then some. In fact, if silver hits $113 an ounce in the next four years, which wouldn't surprise me at all -- success will be automatic.
People forget that governments at best only approach being "useful", but Big Government is absolutely not necessary for human existence. Traders tend to survive even awful governments. They adapt as necessary.
And thanks for all the great emails sent to me by readers of prior posts here, most of which I didn't get to answer properly. I was busy -- but I still would have preferred keeping up with those who are interested in the Challenge Account and the concepts we talk about here. I have always maintained-- and have even more proof gathered in the last 3 years -- that profiting in the forex, futures, and even stock markets-- is primarily a function of premise. More about this in the coming weeks.
Forex trading has been getting better throughout the last half of 2013 because money finally was forced to move. Now we, as opportunistic traders, have much better potential than the previous years of stagnation because of Big Money's (governments and investment banks) willingness to commit.
Personally, I've been trading much smaller size since the contraction in trading volume that we've been dealing with since 2010. And trading full size on only the best and highest value trades.
Does this mean that methods like FirstStrike and OneNightStand were relegated to the trash bin? Far from it. Half of my best trades in 2013 were FS or ONS trades levered up to full size positions.
One of the greatest developments in 2013 was the intense weakening of the Japanese Yen which still continues. All you need(ed) to profit is to get long just about any currency originating above the equator vs. the Japanese Yen. There was nothing better than the Chf/Jpy and Eur/Jpy OneNightStand trades taken by followers of that method.
When numerous forex markets start taking out weekly and monthly highs on a regular basis-- I KNOW that something is going on and it is time to get geared up to profit. So I got seriously intrigued in late 2012, especially with increased profits coming in-- and started trading a bit bigger in February 2013.
I had a very decent year in my personal account by trading long positions in Euro/Jpy, Chf/Jpy, Gbp/Jpy, and Usd/Jpy. Also by trading some great OneNightStand and FirstStrike entries with large size. As I had a balance of $4,583 at the end of 2012 in the Challenge account, I did a few of these for it too, profiting $2,490.97 on just 18 trades. I knew that we were in a massive rush into northern currencies vs. the yen and it was not likely to last forever at the pace it was setting. Maybe it'll keep it up longer. Time will tell.
Anyway, on the second of December, 2013, on an intense one day dump in the silver market---I took $6,560.40 from the remaining balance of the Challenge account and bought 330 ounces of silver (3 - 100 oz. bars & 3 - 10 oz bars) at an average price of $19.88. So the Challenge account now has a total of 1330 oz. which will be valued at spot for the duration.
This year the Challenge account will start back up with the remainder of $513.57 for fuel. I also reserve the option to liquidate some silver for additional capital if the markets get particularly robust.
I intend to trade it with OneNightStand trades for the duration with higher leverage according to the concept of the Kelly Criterion. Reference: Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone. And you can follow along or just watch. It should be a very interesting ride.
(WARNING!!! If you've read the book, which I encourage you to do; or have done any research about trading via Kelly money management methods, you already know that extreme drawdowns are GUARANTEED - not just possible. If you can't afford to literally light a match to your trading account, don't even consider following the risk percentages the Challenge account will be using.)
A method with a definable edge and the will to trade it can make a man with $500 a very dangerous entity. More about this and the version of OneNightStand that I'll be trading -- next week.
I am in close contact with a couple of dozen traders who keep putting in ONS and FS trades. Among them 5 who made between $50K and $250K on the silver move which culminated in early 2011 - using a special trading system. I informed a number of them about my choice to expand the account's silver position. I got asked: Why did I consolidate almost all the available capital in the Challenge account in silver?
Great question.
Here's some of the background. Most of you already know about my interest in silver and the fact that it and gold represent 2 unique currencies with the same trading (actually better) characteristics of typical fiat currencies. And the fact that the metals are truly finite, while government greed is definitely infinite, typical fiat currencies are heading for a chaotic showdown on a number of fronts. Also, I had some long term cycle lows due in the metals which gave me an added nudge.
Besides, I believe it is quite possible that my plan of using OneNightStand trades with enhanced position sizing could by itself hit the $150K 10 year goal, with a "free" position in silver along for the ride. I also think it will make the challenge a bit more intellectually accessible to newer traders than seeing some already "big" account just get bigger. (There will be more discussion about this in the next week or two)
But before I go, a short discussion about something that, tangentially, also has precious metal implications. I want to make a serious mention about a currency all traders have at least heard about, which trades 24/7 -365 days a year.
Bitcoin.
A Real Six Million Dollar Man.
kind-of
A single dollar invested in Bitcoin just a few years back at one point in 2013 was worth $124,000.
I know a guy in Minneapolis who bought 5,000 bitcoins in early 2010 for $100 from a local "miner" (which back then meant anyone who had an extra PC with the time and the simple program it took to crank out the bitcoins) back when they were just a couple of pennies each. He stored them on his backup HP Pavillion laptop and didn't even think about it when the hard drive crashed a year later. He just threw it away. And the digital records for his 5,000 bitcoins.
Currently, he is beside himself. Inconsolable.
I really do sympathize with him.
If he could only remember the 32 digit random password he used on his bitcoin wallet.... He even has gone to 3 different hypnotists to try to remember his original password. I'm sure he is not alone. Probably millions of bitcoins are lost or irretrievable never to surface. Doesn't make him feel any better though.
Anyway, I just think it would be good for you to inform yourself a bit about these new currencies like Bitcoin. They have absolutely no more intrinsic value than a dollar or a euro, but because they have the advantage of being transferred instantly with no nanny-state interference..., they have actual value because enough people have agreed it is so. A very interesting development.
Precious metals share similar advantages of course, but large transactions with metals are almost always done face-to-face. But then again, so are large transactions in Bitcoin. Imagine if Bitcoin or a similar crypto-currency was intertwined somehow with precious metals. Governments and their monetary controls would be shut out very quickly. With astounding reprisals no doubt. Just some thoughts.
As an aside -- I somehow don't think the guy in Minneapolis would have tossed out a few million dollars worth of silver..., or gold. Or even $100 of precious metals.
The overall Bitcoin saga is interesting enough to give you food for thought about what will likely be a future with cryptocurrencies existing beside or even eliminating the current fiat offering from governments.
To see what a modern Bitcoin mine looks like, check out the short video below:
I currently have a (very) small percentage in a mining operation, have a little Bitcoin return every month. Not a lot, but my growing contacts in the cryptocurrency community are giving me a good idea of what others in the business are doing. It is turning into a serious business by serious people. All I can say is do a little investigating. It can only be advantageous to precious metals down the road.
Trading account equity: $ 513.57
Silver position value: $ 25,868.50
(Current XAG price: $19.45– 1330 unit position average: $14.40)
TOTAL Equity: $ 26,382.07
Well, that's it for the end of the year summary.
I'll be back next week.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
It has been 316 weeks since the Challenge account had its first trade. Or 6 years, 24 days. So the challenge of getting to $150K + in a shade less than 4 years is still on. It would have helped tremendously if I had any idea what this socialist-leaning presidency had in mind for us traders, but ultimately, as long as the freedom to trade forex is not limited any further, the odds strongly favor hitting the mark and then some. In fact, if silver hits $113 an ounce in the next four years, which wouldn't surprise me at all -- success will be automatic.
People forget that governments at best only approach being "useful", but Big Government is absolutely not necessary for human existence. Traders tend to survive even awful governments. They adapt as necessary.
And thanks for all the great emails sent to me by readers of prior posts here, most of which I didn't get to answer properly. I was busy -- but I still would have preferred keeping up with those who are interested in the Challenge Account and the concepts we talk about here. I have always maintained-- and have even more proof gathered in the last 3 years -- that profiting in the forex, futures, and even stock markets-- is primarily a function of premise. More about this in the coming weeks.
Forex trading has been getting better throughout the last half of 2013 because money finally was forced to move. Now we, as opportunistic traders, have much better potential than the previous years of stagnation because of Big Money's (governments and investment banks) willingness to commit.
Personally, I've been trading much smaller size since the contraction in trading volume that we've been dealing with since 2010. And trading full size on only the best and highest value trades.
Does this mean that methods like FirstStrike and OneNightStand were relegated to the trash bin? Far from it. Half of my best trades in 2013 were FS or ONS trades levered up to full size positions.
One of the greatest developments in 2013 was the intense weakening of the Japanese Yen which still continues. All you need(ed) to profit is to get long just about any currency originating above the equator vs. the Japanese Yen. There was nothing better than the Chf/Jpy and Eur/Jpy OneNightStand trades taken by followers of that method.
When numerous forex markets start taking out weekly and monthly highs on a regular basis-- I KNOW that something is going on and it is time to get geared up to profit. So I got seriously intrigued in late 2012, especially with increased profits coming in-- and started trading a bit bigger in February 2013.
I had a very decent year in my personal account by trading long positions in Euro/Jpy, Chf/Jpy, Gbp/Jpy, and Usd/Jpy. Also by trading some great OneNightStand and FirstStrike entries with large size. As I had a balance of $4,583 at the end of 2012 in the Challenge account, I did a few of these for it too, profiting $2,490.97 on just 18 trades. I knew that we were in a massive rush into northern currencies vs. the yen and it was not likely to last forever at the pace it was setting. Maybe it'll keep it up longer. Time will tell.
Anyway, on the second of December, 2013, on an intense one day dump in the silver market---I took $6,560.40 from the remaining balance of the Challenge account and bought 330 ounces of silver (3 - 100 oz. bars & 3 - 10 oz bars) at an average price of $19.88. So the Challenge account now has a total of 1330 oz. which will be valued at spot for the duration.
This year the Challenge account will start back up with the remainder of $513.57 for fuel. I also reserve the option to liquidate some silver for additional capital if the markets get particularly robust.
I intend to trade it with OneNightStand trades for the duration with higher leverage according to the concept of the Kelly Criterion. Reference: Fortune's Formula by William Poundstone. And you can follow along or just watch. It should be a very interesting ride.
(WARNING!!! If you've read the book, which I encourage you to do; or have done any research about trading via Kelly money management methods, you already know that extreme drawdowns are GUARANTEED - not just possible. If you can't afford to literally light a match to your trading account, don't even consider following the risk percentages the Challenge account will be using.)
A method with a definable edge and the will to trade it can make a man with $500 a very dangerous entity. More about this and the version of OneNightStand that I'll be trading -- next week.
I am in close contact with a couple of dozen traders who keep putting in ONS and FS trades. Among them 5 who made between $50K and $250K on the silver move which culminated in early 2011 - using a special trading system. I informed a number of them about my choice to expand the account's silver position. I got asked: Why did I consolidate almost all the available capital in the Challenge account in silver?
Great question.
Here's some of the background. Most of you already know about my interest in silver and the fact that it and gold represent 2 unique currencies with the same trading (actually better) characteristics of typical fiat currencies. And the fact that the metals are truly finite, while government greed is definitely infinite, typical fiat currencies are heading for a chaotic showdown on a number of fronts. Also, I had some long term cycle lows due in the metals which gave me an added nudge.
Besides, I believe it is quite possible that my plan of using OneNightStand trades with enhanced position sizing could by itself hit the $150K 10 year goal, with a "free" position in silver along for the ride. I also think it will make the challenge a bit more intellectually accessible to newer traders than seeing some already "big" account just get bigger. (There will be more discussion about this in the next week or two)
But before I go, a short discussion about something that, tangentially, also has precious metal implications. I want to make a serious mention about a currency all traders have at least heard about, which trades 24/7 -365 days a year.
Bitcoin.
A Real Six Million Dollar Man.
kind-of
A single dollar invested in Bitcoin just a few years back at one point in 2013 was worth $124,000.
I know a guy in Minneapolis who bought 5,000 bitcoins in early 2010 for $100 from a local "miner" (which back then meant anyone who had an extra PC with the time and the simple program it took to crank out the bitcoins) back when they were just a couple of pennies each. He stored them on his backup HP Pavillion laptop and didn't even think about it when the hard drive crashed a year later. He just threw it away. And the digital records for his 5,000 bitcoins.
Currently, he is beside himself. Inconsolable.
I really do sympathize with him.
If he could only remember the 32 digit random password he used on his bitcoin wallet.... He even has gone to 3 different hypnotists to try to remember his original password. I'm sure he is not alone. Probably millions of bitcoins are lost or irretrievable never to surface. Doesn't make him feel any better though.
Anyway, I just think it would be good for you to inform yourself a bit about these new currencies like Bitcoin. They have absolutely no more intrinsic value than a dollar or a euro, but because they have the advantage of being transferred instantly with no nanny-state interference..., they have actual value because enough people have agreed it is so. A very interesting development.
Precious metals share similar advantages of course, but large transactions with metals are almost always done face-to-face. But then again, so are large transactions in Bitcoin. Imagine if Bitcoin or a similar crypto-currency was intertwined somehow with precious metals. Governments and their monetary controls would be shut out very quickly. With astounding reprisals no doubt. Just some thoughts.
As an aside -- I somehow don't think the guy in Minneapolis would have tossed out a few million dollars worth of silver..., or gold. Or even $100 of precious metals.
The overall Bitcoin saga is interesting enough to give you food for thought about what will likely be a future with cryptocurrencies existing beside or even eliminating the current fiat offering from governments.
To see what a modern Bitcoin mine looks like, check out the short video below:
I currently have a (very) small percentage in a mining operation, have a little Bitcoin return every month. Not a lot, but my growing contacts in the cryptocurrency community are giving me a good idea of what others in the business are doing. It is turning into a serious business by serious people. All I can say is do a little investigating. It can only be advantageous to precious metals down the road.
Trading account equity: $ 513.57
Silver position value: $ 25,868.50
(Current XAG price: $19.45– 1330 unit position average: $14.40)
TOTAL Equity: $ 26,382.07
Well, that's it for the end of the year summary.
I'll be back next week.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
Monday, December 31, 2012
2012 Be Gone! Challenge account at $34,733--
In all my 30+ years of trading, 2012 is the one I am most glad to have behind me. I have yet to hear of one of my trading contemporaries who feels differently. If you feel differently, I'd appreciate your email.
I've gotten a variety of emails from earlier followers of this blog who wondered when I would post a follow-up. I thank you for your contacts.
There is a good reason why I haven't been busy updating this site. I will explain.
(more to come---)
I've gotten a variety of emails from earlier followers of this blog who wondered when I would post a follow-up. I thank you for your contacts.
There is a good reason why I haven't been busy updating this site. I will explain.
(more to come---)
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
2011 - A Nasty Trading Year for Forex Traders - Infiniteyield Forex Challenge Account:$34,183
I've had a very tumultuous year in trading, and so has the Challenge account. Not bad, but tumultuous.
tu·mul·tu·ous
adjective
1. full of tumult or riotousness; marked by disturbance and uproar: a tumultuous celebration.
2. raising a great clatter and commotion; disorderly or noisy: a tumultuous crowd of students.
3. highly agitated, as the mind or emotions; distraught; turbulent.
Yes, it fits.
When I started out the year, silver was at the $29 - $30 level, same as it is now. The Eur/Usd was at the 1.3250 level and it got up to 1.4700 and now is back down at the 1.3000 level --below the start of the year.
Of course silver had its big move up early in the year to the $49/oz. area.
How did the Challenge account do? It depends on an individual's point of view who's interested, but from mine-- it did quite well.
We started out the year with $26,522.00 in the Challenge account. We were holding 1000 ounces of on the Oanda platform, which made it possible to hold it with less than $1000 margin. When silver got over $49/oz. at the end of April, the Challenge account had a total value of over $51,000. I backed way off my trading size on FirstStrike and OneNightStand positions because the volatility of silver and the volatility of the currencies was parallel and there was no need to increase my risk.
I sold 500 ounces at 48.90. WOW! I just couldn't help it. The volatility was insane, the market was ticking up and down 20 to 50 cents every few minutes. I decided if silver decided to go above $50 I would put the 500 ounces back on. It didn't happen.
To not describe in detail the ensuing 10 weeks of painful volatility is a bonus for you and me (I'm not interested in reliving it or reminding you of the nightmare you dealt with too), as I was trading much larger silver positions on Comex and the cash markets. Equity swings of $100k a day, sometimes an hour - are not fun even if you have done it many times before. My personal year has worked out fine, while most money managers are posting red ink. This year reminds me of the famous Kenny Rogers song with the lyrics:
You've got to know when to hold 'em.
Know when to fold 'em.
Know when to walk away,
know when to run....
I ran from all my silver by the time silver dropped through $45/ounce.
Back to the Challenge account. A couple weeks after the 500 ounce sale, I sold the other 500 remaining ounces at Oanda in the mid 30's, took a disbursement and bought 1000 ounces of silver in bar form. Why?
Thanks to the idiots who are behind the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
This is the notice that Oanda account holders received:
Effective the end of Friday, July 15, 2011, Retail Foreign Exchange Dealers (RFEDs) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be prohibited from offering leveraged retail trading in commodities, including precious metals such as gold and silver. This change in the U.S. law is being enforced by the CFTC as an outcome of The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
Yes, OANDA offers 1:1 non-leveraged Gold and Silver trading. That defeats the whole purpose of a speculator like you or me using Oanda or other similar firms for profiting via gold and/or silver -- we want the leverage.
Anyway, so now the Challenge account has 1000 REAL ounces of silver, valued momentarily at $29,600, and $4,583 left over to position in the forex markets if something great happens. Maybe after the first of the year. So, a total current value of $34,183.
Not bad performance in 4 years from a meager $500. Only have to double the account a little over two more times within the next 6 years.
I'll have to get the chart up above updated. The spike over $50K and back down is the kind of thing that makes people (and wives) think you are crazy for trading.
The question I always get after a drawdown, if I am stupid enough to even mention it to my non-trading friends, is: "Why didn't you sell when it topped...?" As if you always miraculously know that the top they see after fact is obvious when it is happening.
But the public thought process is why we have so much opportunity when we trade. Others cannot or will not do what has to be done at the times the right trade has to be executed.
Looking forward to more updates.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
tu·mul·tu·ous
adjective
1. full of tumult or riotousness; marked by disturbance and uproar: a tumultuous celebration.
2. raising a great clatter and commotion; disorderly or noisy: a tumultuous crowd of students.
3. highly agitated, as the mind or emotions; distraught; turbulent.
Yes, it fits.
When I started out the year, silver was at the $29 - $30 level, same as it is now. The Eur/Usd was at the 1.3250 level and it got up to 1.4700 and now is back down at the 1.3000 level --below the start of the year.
Of course silver had its big move up early in the year to the $49/oz. area.
How did the Challenge account do? It depends on an individual's point of view who's interested, but from mine-- it did quite well.
We started out the year with $26,522.00 in the Challenge account. We were holding 1000 ounces of on the Oanda platform, which made it possible to hold it with less than $1000 margin. When silver got over $49/oz. at the end of April, the Challenge account had a total value of over $51,000. I backed way off my trading size on FirstStrike and OneNightStand positions because the volatility of silver and the volatility of the currencies was parallel and there was no need to increase my risk.
I sold 500 ounces at 48.90. WOW! I just couldn't help it. The volatility was insane, the market was ticking up and down 20 to 50 cents every few minutes. I decided if silver decided to go above $50 I would put the 500 ounces back on. It didn't happen.
To not describe in detail the ensuing 10 weeks of painful volatility is a bonus for you and me (I'm not interested in reliving it or reminding you of the nightmare you dealt with too), as I was trading much larger silver positions on Comex and the cash markets. Equity swings of $100k a day, sometimes an hour - are not fun even if you have done it many times before. My personal year has worked out fine, while most money managers are posting red ink. This year reminds me of the famous Kenny Rogers song with the lyrics:
You've got to know when to hold 'em.
Know when to fold 'em.
Know when to walk away,
know when to run....
I ran from all my silver by the time silver dropped through $45/ounce.
Back to the Challenge account. A couple weeks after the 500 ounce sale, I sold the other 500 remaining ounces at Oanda in the mid 30's, took a disbursement and bought 1000 ounces of silver in bar form. Why?
Thanks to the idiots who are behind the Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
This is the notice that Oanda account holders received:
Effective the end of Friday, July 15, 2011, Retail Foreign Exchange Dealers (RFEDs) registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will be prohibited from offering leveraged retail trading in commodities, including precious metals such as gold and silver. This change in the U.S. law is being enforced by the CFTC as an outcome of The Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act.
Yes, OANDA offers 1:1 non-leveraged Gold and Silver trading. That defeats the whole purpose of a speculator like you or me using Oanda or other similar firms for profiting via gold and/or silver -- we want the leverage.
Anyway, so now the Challenge account has 1000 REAL ounces of silver, valued momentarily at $29,600, and $4,583 left over to position in the forex markets if something great happens. Maybe after the first of the year. So, a total current value of $34,183.
Not bad performance in 4 years from a meager $500. Only have to double the account a little over two more times within the next 6 years.
I'll have to get the chart up above updated. The spike over $50K and back down is the kind of thing that makes people (and wives) think you are crazy for trading.
The question I always get after a drawdown, if I am stupid enough to even mention it to my non-trading friends, is: "Why didn't you sell when it topped...?" As if you always miraculously know that the top they see after fact is obvious when it is happening.
But the public thought process is why we have so much opportunity when we trade. Others cannot or will not do what has to be done at the times the right trade has to be executed.
Looking forward to more updates.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
Friday, December 31, 2010
The Infiniteyield Challenge account is now at $26,522.00
It has been an incredible year for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge.
I've had a number of you call me recently and ask how well the account has been doing because you've been doing well yourselves -- thanks for the calls and interest. I figured I better post the year's results before the coming of the new year in a few hours.
In the 159 weeks since I started the $500 Challenge account with Oanda it has grown through a combination of OneNightStand trades, the weekly FirstStrike trades, and a relatively small position in silver.
Currently it has doubled 5 1/2 times. From here, I only have to double the account less than 3 times to achieve my goal of $150,000 or more.
With 7 years to go.
(Completion of the post is in progress....)
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Now--- 2090 % increase since December 2007
A hearty hello to the most determined traders I've ever known.
I have no doubt that some of you thought I would never post again.
I've been busy trading, traveling to Chicago and other cities for consulting with hedge funds..., but mostly trading.Because of the tremendous move in silver over the last month – we have again hit new equity highs. The Challenge account shows a 2090 % increase since December 2007 when I started the blog and the account with just $500. This is equivalent to a 761% annual average return.
Pretty incredible, but I still expect some hard, negative equity swings in the future. When silver dropped to $14.66 last February the account dropped to around $4300 – and I began to believe that I might have to dump some if it dropped another dollar. It didn't.
The Challenge Account 1000 oz. silver position has been a lifesaver over the last year. It definitely helps that silver has climbed over $21.00/oz. Now it seems that all you hear on the financial news networks is that gold and silver are being recommended by this bank or that analyst – if I didn't know that silver had a much larger distance to go long term..., I would be inclined to exit some just because of contrary opinion reasons.
And there has been a definite change in the attitude of the voting public about the”change” that has come to Washington. Not many are happy about – no jobs – lower prices for their homes – tough to get credit.
Don't expect too much REAL “change” in the near future.
Things might “appear” better soon – if just because people get tired of being afraid and start doing things, starting up more business, and because the banks will finally figure out a way to liberate (lend out) the Trillions of dollars put into their coffers.
Banks hate to have capital that is only making ½ % a year - lending it back to the same guys who gave it to them (who thought that up?).
It can't be soon enough for me.
The forex markets have been very choppy.
I don't need to hammer that point too hard for those of you trading FirstStrike and One Night Stand along with me. ONS has done a little better overall than FS but that is what happens ever so many years. Trading systems go into drawdowns and we have to wait patiently until things get exciting again.
Maybe that will be soon.
This last year was very good to me, trading-wise.
I've had the move in silver, of course, but had great moves (some of them historic!) in wheat, corn, cotton, coffee and sugar. These markets made me 4 times what silver and the currencies did.
I've made no secret of the fact that I believe forex trading is a great place to start trading and learn to trade properly with a small amount of capital. After you get competent, it is ridiculous to miss the huge moves that are possible in the other derivative arena, the futures markets.
This week we have a few decent FirstStrike trades working.
Week of Sept. 20, 2010---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.3183, currently profitable
gbp/jpy: Short @ 132.06, currently w/small loss
gbp/usd: Short @1.5557, stopped at 1.5709
usd/chf: Short @1.0042, currently profitable
usd/jpy: Short @ 84.77, currently profitable
(Current XAG price: $21.16– 1000 unit position average: $12.59)
TOTAL Equity: $ 10,966.54
-----
Congratulations to all of you who have stuck to their trading and weathered the drawdowns that inevitably show up when you trade a long-term plan.
I know that feeling too.
Looking forward to more updates.
Joel Rensinkwww.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Monday, September 7, 2009
1185 % increase since December 2007
I'm glad to have a chance to make an update.
Sorry about my long absences. But, trading is what I do for a living and when duty calls..., it usually takes the form of an early morning Eur/Usd or coffee trade.
This year has been one of my busiest and most personally profitable. Last year was terrific for me in my personal trading - especially the last half - so this year is a unsuspected bonus. All markets have ebbs and flows, and right now the majority of the world's money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for confirmation of something to make a commitment.
When volatility starts to increase due to that commitment, I have to get involved. You already know the drill.
Since the last update in April --- in the Challenge account I have made 108 FirstStrikePlus and ONS trades and added 600 ounces to the long XAG position. The previous position of 400 ounces had an average of $10.95.
The 3 silver additions were: 200 ounces @13.04, 200 ounces @ 13.70 and 200 ounces @14.31.
This makes an average position of 1000 ounces of XAG @12.59.
Due to this enhanced position and the beneficial price action of the last month in silver – we have hit new equity highs. The Challenge account shows a 1185 % increase since December 2007 when I started the blog and the account with just $500. This is equivalent to a 677% annual average return.
That even impresses me.
At the time I started this site very few believed it was possible to get such percentage increases, especially after publicly declaring that intent. Now that many others following this Challenge have had similar gains, it isn't so unreasonable in people's minds.
Nevertheless, if one wishes to follow along on some or all of the trades taken here, remember that pure risk capital be used. If your lifestyle and that of your family will not be hampered by the loss of the money risked, it usually qualifies as risk capital.
Last week we had another week of losses in FirstStrikePlus.
Week of Aug. 31, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.4342, stopped at 1.4262 for 80 pip loss.
gbp/jpy: Long @ 152.30, stopped at 150.06 for 224 pip loss.
gbp/usd: Long @1.6355, stopped at 1.6206 for 149 pip loss.
usd/chf: Short @1.0553, stopped at 1.0626 for 73 pip loss.
usd/jpy: Long @ 93.29, stopped at 92.55 for 74 pip loss.
-----
OneNightStand trades executed Friday, Sept. 4, 2009:
-None-
Trading account equity: $ 2,816.41
Loss from previous week: $ 214.56.
Silver position equity: $ 3,610.00
(Current XAG price: $16.20– 1000 unit position average: $12.59)
TOTAL Equity: $ 6,426.41
There is a strong difference between investing and trading. Especially when you are willing to put up with substantial drawdowns despite constant trading..., while waiting for your “edge” to reassert itself.
This last week we saw a sharp move up in silver and gold. A significant part of the Challenge account could be considered by many an "investment" in silver. It really is a trade, just a very long term one - I will be happy to sell when volatility becomes extreme at higher levels. As long as inflation demons lurk in the shadows, the trade should prosper easily.
As most of you know, I've been bullish silver since the $8.40 low. Time and price (Gann indications) came in very strongly then and I have more personal certainty that silver low will never be seen again than the USA will remain capitalist for the next 4 years. (I do believe that even if we should have to suffer socialism, it will be as short-lived as Prohibition was. And it will end badly for the perpetrators.)
I've calculated that with the current equity and a modest 60% increase per year for the next 7 years will build the Challenge account into over $160K. Of course, increases like we experienced over the last year and a half can't be expected all the time. But if I do just a fraction as well as I've done already-- I could hit a million+ in those 7 years.
Some have emailed me commenting on how dismal the current returns have been trading First Strike Plus and OneNightStand.
Yes, I know.
That is definitely the way trading is, you keep taking trades that have a statistical edge and get hammered (experiencing losses) until you don't. If that is what you've been experiencing, congratulations! You've been trading the same markets I have.
The spectacular gains I've enjoyed in the last month (as already mentioned) were due primarily to my silver position. I expect that a significant amount of the Challenge account's gains for the next few years will be from silver enhancement. Silver is increasing the account size while currencies are just holding their own.
Eventually the currency markets will take off and we should profit as we have in the past. That's one of the reasons there is so much latent profit potential in proper trading of markets. The vast majority of market watchers/traders get sick and tired of getting hammered (experiencing more losses) and stop trading. The market, now clear of side currents – starts trending again. (By then, that majority has found a new “shouldn't lose” system and they repeat the process.)
For those of us in the USA, have a good Labor Day holiday.
Best of wishes to you all. I cautiously look forward to the FSP trades this week. The ranges have narrowed tremendously and the potential for large profits is here. Or just our usual containable losses.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Sorry about my long absences. But, trading is what I do for a living and when duty calls..., it usually takes the form of an early morning Eur/Usd or coffee trade.
This year has been one of my busiest and most personally profitable. Last year was terrific for me in my personal trading - especially the last half - so this year is a unsuspected bonus. All markets have ebbs and flows, and right now the majority of the world's money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for confirmation of something to make a commitment.
When volatility starts to increase due to that commitment, I have to get involved. You already know the drill.
Since the last update in April --- in the Challenge account I have made 108 FirstStrikePlus and ONS trades and added 600 ounces to the long XAG position. The previous position of 400 ounces had an average of $10.95.
The 3 silver additions were: 200 ounces @13.04, 200 ounces @ 13.70 and 200 ounces @14.31.
This makes an average position of 1000 ounces of XAG @12.59.
Due to this enhanced position and the beneficial price action of the last month in silver – we have hit new equity highs. The Challenge account shows a 1185 % increase since December 2007 when I started the blog and the account with just $500. This is equivalent to a 677% annual average return.
That even impresses me.
At the time I started this site very few believed it was possible to get such percentage increases, especially after publicly declaring that intent. Now that many others following this Challenge have had similar gains, it isn't so unreasonable in people's minds.
Nevertheless, if one wishes to follow along on some or all of the trades taken here, remember that pure risk capital be used. If your lifestyle and that of your family will not be hampered by the loss of the money risked, it usually qualifies as risk capital.
Last week we had another week of losses in FirstStrikePlus.
Week of Aug. 31, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.4342, stopped at 1.4262 for 80 pip loss.
gbp/jpy: Long @ 152.30, stopped at 150.06 for 224 pip loss.
gbp/usd: Long @1.6355, stopped at 1.6206 for 149 pip loss.
usd/chf: Short @1.0553, stopped at 1.0626 for 73 pip loss.
usd/jpy: Long @ 93.29, stopped at 92.55 for 74 pip loss.
-----
OneNightStand trades executed Friday, Sept. 4, 2009:
-None-
Trading account equity: $ 2,816.41
Loss from previous week: $ 214.56.
Silver position equity: $ 3,610.00
(Current XAG price: $16.20– 1000 unit position average: $12.59)
TOTAL Equity: $ 6,426.41
There is a strong difference between investing and trading. Especially when you are willing to put up with substantial drawdowns despite constant trading..., while waiting for your “edge” to reassert itself.
This last week we saw a sharp move up in silver and gold. A significant part of the Challenge account could be considered by many an "investment" in silver. It really is a trade, just a very long term one - I will be happy to sell when volatility becomes extreme at higher levels. As long as inflation demons lurk in the shadows, the trade should prosper easily.
As most of you know, I've been bullish silver since the $8.40 low. Time and price (Gann indications) came in very strongly then and I have more personal certainty that silver low will never be seen again than the USA will remain capitalist for the next 4 years. (I do believe that even if we should have to suffer socialism, it will be as short-lived as Prohibition was. And it will end badly for the perpetrators.)
I've calculated that with the current equity and a modest 60% increase per year for the next 7 years will build the Challenge account into over $160K. Of course, increases like we experienced over the last year and a half can't be expected all the time. But if I do just a fraction as well as I've done already-- I could hit a million+ in those 7 years.
Some have emailed me commenting on how dismal the current returns have been trading First Strike Plus and OneNightStand.
Yes, I know.
That is definitely the way trading is, you keep taking trades that have a statistical edge and get hammered (experiencing losses) until you don't. If that is what you've been experiencing, congratulations! You've been trading the same markets I have.
The spectacular gains I've enjoyed in the last month (as already mentioned) were due primarily to my silver position. I expect that a significant amount of the Challenge account's gains for the next few years will be from silver enhancement. Silver is increasing the account size while currencies are just holding their own.
Eventually the currency markets will take off and we should profit as we have in the past. That's one of the reasons there is so much latent profit potential in proper trading of markets. The vast majority of market watchers/traders get sick and tired of getting hammered (experiencing more losses) and stop trading. The market, now clear of side currents – starts trending again. (By then, that majority has found a new “shouldn't lose” system and they repeat the process.)
For those of us in the USA, have a good Labor Day holiday.
Best of wishes to you all. I cautiously look forward to the FSP trades this week. The ranges have narrowed tremendously and the potential for large profits is here. Or just our usual containable losses.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Monday, August 31, 2009
Markets Finally Coming Back to Life!
Like many who read this blog, I save key thoughts and phrases I find over the years. I write them down when I find them in periodicals, old books, and sometimes even the internet (usually a poorer place to find brilliance in print).
I found the following missive yesterday going through 5 year-old trading records. I had written it in longhand on the back of one of my older silver charts. Moral: It pays to go through your old records.
You Can Do or Be Whatever You Desire.
You have to get disgusted. You have to make a decision to change. You have to visualize that change becoming a reality. And you must take the action necessary to make it happen.
Time is what puts everyone on a level playing field. It's a non-renewable resource; when it's gone, it's gone, and you can't get it back. I have 24 hours in my day - no more and no less than you do in yours. It's what you choose to do during those hours that will keep you broke or make you a fortune.
I know I saved the above because the thoughts definitely apply to trading, and anything else of value too. I will address some critical points from it in a few minutes.
The last few months have been busy for me, and very likely you too. With the new administration in Washington, many who were thrilled aren't as thrilled, the others who weren't thrilled are even less thrilled and the socialists among us are ecstatic. But this post isn't going to be about my strong reservations about government (in the specific tense or in general).
The fact is that somewhere between 10 and 25 Trillion dollars has been dumped into various places in the U.S. economy. Some of these places are banks, who will hold on to the money until they get the permission or certitude that they will be able to better their return than the interest they receive putting the “gift money” back with the government in T-Bills.
Other receivers of “gift money” are bank funds or government shills who are just waiting for conditions (like some healthy public confidence) that will enable them to invest in businesses and various stock entities. Either way, whatever these “gifted ” entities are waiting for eventually will take place and the money will be leaked into the economy.
Then the money will be returned as deposits and then be lent out again, only multiplied many-fold to more people/businesses and the madness will return that makes traders and speculators so valuable and happy for awhile.
The above is inevitable. Plus, the money that the general public thinks was lost in the last year and a half will somehow find its way back to the market and make a future economic boom that will be hard to imagine for the average currently numb and depressed mutual fund holder.
Economics 101: (Print out this rule and stick it on your trading wall/desk/computer/monitor)
Money, once created, never disappears. It is only transferred to a position of higher utility.
Meaning, the money that the majority of the baby-boomers had exposed and lost from their 401Ks and mutual funds got liberated by those who had a more correct view of financial circumstances and are currently applying to the “next big thing”.
The next BIG THING? Inflation on a scale previously never experienced, because there has never been this much money created in the world just waiting to be spent.
There are those who would beg to differ or fight about some of the points above , but the statements prove true when the applicable country's currency remains intact, a full business cycle completes, AND the country remains CAPITALIST in nature.
So, if you have time, patience and the certain knowledge that the U.S. will remain capitalist, there is no problem.
Do you have all 3? I do not, just the first 2.
There is another element necessary. You need sufficient capital – if you wish to profit from a capitalist system.
If you don't have capital for the coming inflationary times right now, get it somehow, soon.
Back to the paragraph at the start of this post about being able to be or do whatever you desire.
Right now it is popular in this country to blame the productive and the risk-takers for the problems many suffer. Never is it mentioned that every individual also has to think, plan and be responsible for their own assets and future opportunities.
The idea that the government should “take care of us” and be responsible for redistributing wealth is epidemic – and greedily seconded by the half of the country who prefers to receive – instead of struggle for something better by themselves with their own ingenuity. The “taking action” part is the crux. If so many are afraid to fail – with the result that they never take risks, then those who ARE willing to take reasonable risks have improved their odds to succeed tremendously.
What you choose to accomplish in your 24 hours a day will determine your success in the future. Especially in trading.
Life is trading. All based on choice – yours.
You can live wherever you want. Why not live in a place where there is low crime and plenty of money (and opportunities)? Instead of renting, you can buy a property that has a better chance of appreciation because of its location.
By your financial decisions you can create the best credit rating possible.
You can work wherever you want. You can educate yourself to whatever degree you wish and attain what success you demand of yourself. Maybe it will take time and effort. Make the effort if you wish the results.
You can choose the size of your family. You can marry well, or not at all.
You can be as healthy as your genetics allow by taking care of your diet and exercise.
If you trade and invest, you need to do more – care more – than the rest of the market participants to ensure you have an edge that you will act on – every time. When others stumble, you can get ahead. I was relentless for 18 hours a day for 5 years to make sure I had a viable edge for trading. Then it got just a little easier for the next 25 years. I care more and execute every time when others might just think, "Maybe the market won't go up this time. Maybe silver is in a bear market just like Bob Prechter says."
Did anyone say doing all these things is easy? No. But they are doable, attainable by those who are willing to take relentless action.
Beware a government that promises easy answers to success-for-some by handing the bill to others who will never benefit.
Thomas Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.
Joel Rensinkwww.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Free Markets Benefit Man Best!
Most people are not aware of how difficult it is to trade systematically.
At first it may not seem like such a big deal, but after you do it over a long period of time, and you see the markets move counter to your method at times that you "just knew they would" ..., you start wanting to deviate more.
Market Wizard Bill Dunn -
Below are links to two great videos with a man who has had serious experience trading in the forex and futures markets over the decades. He has had volatile results (read: severe drawdowns), but he also has had an unending series of new equity highs to show for his consistency.
His message: follow your system exactly! After you have proven statistically that it will work.
He also has strong views on the benefit of "free markets" and the likelihood of success of those who would think that they can "do better" than the markets.
Watch Bill Dunn's 2 videos....
Part 1
Part 2
See what you think.
Joel Rensink
At first it may not seem like such a big deal, but after you do it over a long period of time, and you see the markets move counter to your method at times that you "just knew they would" ..., you start wanting to deviate more.
Market Wizard Bill Dunn -
Below are links to two great videos with a man who has had serious experience trading in the forex and futures markets over the decades. He has had volatile results (read: severe drawdowns), but he also has had an unending series of new equity highs to show for his consistency.
His message: follow your system exactly! After you have proven statistically that it will work.
He also has strong views on the benefit of "free markets" and the likelihood of success of those who would think that they can "do better" than the markets.
Watch Bill Dunn's 2 videos....
Part 1
Part 2
See what you think.
Joel Rensink
Sunday, May 31, 2009
Thursday, May 7, 2009
NFP day-
Two economists meet on the street.
One inquires, "How's your wife?"
The other responds, "Relative to what?"
-----
Thoughts specially for traders who've been in the battle for the last few weeks:
"Genius is only a greater aptitude for patience."--
George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon ('Buffon's needle problem' came from him, he is one of few Frenchmen I've appreciated.)
"The two most powerful warriors are patience and time."--
Leo Tolstoy (Brilliant inveterate gambler who wrote War and Peace)
"I am extraordinarily patient provided I get my own way in the end."--
Margaret Thatcher (I wish she were our president.)
Later this morning we will have the NFP (Non-farm Payroll) news. Perhaps that will trigger some OneNightStand trades. I wouldn't be surprised if they find out that projected job losses aren't as bad as they've thought.
More later....
JR
One inquires, "How's your wife?"
The other responds, "Relative to what?"
-----
Thoughts specially for traders who've been in the battle for the last few weeks:
"Genius is only a greater aptitude for patience."--
George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon ('Buffon's needle problem' came from him, he is one of few Frenchmen I've appreciated.)
"The two most powerful warriors are patience and time."--
Leo Tolstoy (Brilliant inveterate gambler who wrote War and Peace)
"I am extraordinarily patient provided I get my own way in the end."--
Margaret Thatcher (I wish she were our president.)
Later this morning we will have the NFP (Non-farm Payroll) news. Perhaps that will trigger some OneNightStand trades. I wouldn't be surprised if they find out that projected job losses aren't as bad as they've thought.
More later....
JR
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Fibonacci and Inflation! -Thursday, April 30, 2009
I was sent a very interesting link from a trader buddy who agrees with my long-time-held assessment that super inflation is on its way, whether anyone wants to believe it or not.
This is the beginning of the FIBONACCI SEQUENCE:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, ...
I'm sure most of you who have heard of Fibonacci's sequence probably think it's main application is in price movements and retracement levels-- it is highly revered by many in that use.
Where it finds greatest power is in the application of time cycles. Walter Roman wrote an interesting article about inflation and Fibonacci you can access here:
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/0430.html
I'll be adding this week's trades to this post.....
Joel Rensinkwww.infiniteyield.com
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