One FirstStrike trade is still going. The Eur/Usd bought @ 1.5717 with a stoploss @ 1.5657 is profitable and near all-time historic highs.
I am actually surprised that we had the one holdout. The other pairs have been exceptionally choppy this week, until today. If you traded frequently this week it is likely you lost more than average.
When the markets are trying to digest new market conditions, the primary losers are the shorter term participants.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its 2008 growth estimates for the US by almost one percentage point. They believe the dollar's weakness is certain to encourage other currencies to attain prominence, primarily the Euro, which we've been witnessing the past few weeks.
The Fed has slashed its rates by a total of 300 basis points since late last year to ease credit concerns and recharge the economy. The Fed is expected to further lower rates by 50 basis points this month, which should weaken the dollar a bit more.
The great thing about being a trader is--- the trends of the monetary systems force trends in the currencies. We almost are forced to make money if we manage our resources and are willing to take precise robust trades.
See you tomorrow!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
The US dollar Isn't Alone! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Tue- Equity: $749.10
The dollar is not the only currency under pressure anymore.
The Gbp/Usd is getting hammered after housing data in the UK indicates that their economy is not as rock solid as they've been trumpeting.
The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates Thursday, which is a possible “buy the fact” event--- and the market is starting to price in the possibility of even more severe interest rate cuts down the road.
Finally, the rest of the press is catching on to the idea that other major countries besides the US are experiencing difficulties and that their currencies are susceptible to decline. Now they acknowledge that continental Europe's Euro currency could fall relative to the dollar. I'm sure they would be secretly happy about it. It is tough getting priced out of the world markets for the few things you actually do produce.
I finally got a FirstStrike Usd/Jpy trade, which subsequently got stopped out. Either the Eur/Usd must rally like mad or this will be a losing week.
FirstStrike Trade Status this Week:
Current equity is $749.10.
Have a good evening.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
The Gbp/Usd is getting hammered after housing data in the UK indicates that their economy is not as rock solid as they've been trumpeting.
The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates Thursday, which is a possible “buy the fact” event--- and the market is starting to price in the possibility of even more severe interest rate cuts down the road.
Finally, the rest of the press is catching on to the idea that other major countries besides the US are experiencing difficulties and that their currencies are susceptible to decline. Now they acknowledge that continental Europe's Euro currency could fall relative to the dollar. I'm sure they would be secretly happy about it. It is tough getting priced out of the world markets for the few things you actually do produce.
I finally got a FirstStrike Usd/Jpy trade, which subsequently got stopped out. Either the Eur/Usd must rally like mad or this will be a losing week.
FirstStrike Trade Status this Week:
- Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5717, stop 1.5657. Trade still in progress----
- Gbp/Jpy: long @ 204.32, stopped out @ 203.72 for a 60 pip loss.
- Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9843, stopped out @ 1.9903 for a 60 pip loss.
- Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0168, stopped out @ 1.0108 for a 60 pip loss.
- Usd/Jpy: short @ 101.96, stopped out @ 102.56 for a 60 pip loss.
Current equity is $749.10.
Have a good evening.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Monday, April 7, 2008
The Quick and the Dead! -- IFCN Wk 18 -Mon- Equity: $755.34
It is great that the weather is generally improving around the US. Spring is getting here, but in Minnesota today, it was a nasty cold one! The warmth from late last week disappeared, and showed us we have to be patient for the good weather.
The weather is just like the markets we've been trading. Nothing great comes easy!
We got 4 quick FirstStrike entries today and are still alive in 1 of them with a small profit, in the long Eur/Usd. I don't have real high hopes for it though. The remaining pair to enter a trade for the week, the Usd/Jpy-- is at a key price juncture and has the potential to be a solid trade where ever it decides to go.
Current equity is $755.34.
Have a good evening.
Maybe we'll get a good Usd/Jpy trade.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
The weather is just like the markets we've been trading. Nothing great comes easy!
We got 4 quick FirstStrike entries today and are still alive in 1 of them with a small profit, in the long Eur/Usd. I don't have real high hopes for it though. The remaining pair to enter a trade for the week, the Usd/Jpy-- is at a key price juncture and has the potential to be a solid trade where ever it decides to go.
- Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5717, stop 1.5657. Currently in for small profit.
- Gbp/Jpy: long @ 204.32, stopped out @ 203.72 for a 60 pip loss.
- Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9843, stopped out @ 1.9903 for a 60 pip loss.
- Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0168, stopped out @ 1.0108 for a 60 pip loss.
- Buy order: Buy 102.96, stop 102.36.
- Sell order: Sell 101.96, stop 102.56.
Current equity is $755.34.
Have a good evening.
Maybe we'll get a good Usd/Jpy trade.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Friday, April 4, 2008
Non-Farm Payroll Surprise? Not really.... -- IFCN Wk 17 -Fri- Equity: $783.77
The big news today was the first-Friday-of-the-month Non Farm payroll report.
According to today's Labor Department report, the US economy lost 80,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March. Some forecasters had predicted an even larger loss.
February and March payrolls were revised downward by 67,000 jobs for a total cumulative loss of 152,000 jobs.
Friday's report is the first time since June of 2003 that the American economy lost jobs three months straight, and the 80,000 decline was the biggest loss of that size since March of 2003.
The unemployment rate, moved up to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent in February. That was the highest rate since September of 2005.
This news was obviously well-anticipated by the market, seen from the action that transpired after the news broke. The Eur/Usd popped up, then shot down, then snapped back up..., staying within a narrow range for the rest of the day. All in all the market closed within 15 pips of where it was seconds before the report.
NOTE: I consider all of this talk about recession and bad economy “much ado about nothing”. Most countries in the European community would give their right eye for a 5.1 percent unemployment figure. And they have socialized medicine and governments which are anything but small.
What is not recognized by much of the world, and even many Americans who watch these figures and the news like a hawk to figure out what is really going on – is this: a huge portion of the “employed” Americans have more than one job. These over-employed Americans are extremely industrious people, creative beyond all parallel in the world because they actually have a system which rewards them if they come up with something new and innovative. If their excess productivity was measured against the non-productivity of the unemployed, there would be less concern about the NFP numbers the last few months.
Why do people in other countries who invent some cool device or technology immediately come to the US? Because they can get paid here for their brilliance. Relatively quickly, too.
I am not being a nationalist or chest-beater by saying this. They are the self-evident facts. Even though it gets to be a little “dog-eat-dog” sometimes, at least it is interesting here and you can meet some real innovators starting a world-beating company right down the street at the coffee shop.
On to a recap of our trading week--
We had no ONS trades executed.
The data below is as of Friday's close, April 4, 2008:
This week's Alpha account trading recap:
Start of week equity: $ 827.35
Completed FirstStrike trades:
Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5842, stopped out @ 1.5782 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Jpy: short @ 198.28, stopped out @ 198.88 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9875, stopped out @ 1.9935 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Chf: short @ .9913, stopped out @ .9973 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Jpy: short @ 99.27, stopped out @ 99.87 for a 60 pip loss
Total of 300 pips in losses.
Total of 0 pips in profits.
Net gain: 0 pips in profits.
OneNightStand Exit(s) on 03/31/08:
-None-
OneNightStand 04/04/08 entries:
None- No trades entered
Unrealized P&L: $ 0.00
End of week equity: $ 783.77 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss on Week: $ 43.58 (5.2% weekly decrease)
It was nice we didn't lose more. The markets were definitely choppy.
Have a good weekend. Next week should be better!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
According to today's Labor Department report, the US economy lost 80,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March. Some forecasters had predicted an even larger loss.
February and March payrolls were revised downward by 67,000 jobs for a total cumulative loss of 152,000 jobs.
Friday's report is the first time since June of 2003 that the American economy lost jobs three months straight, and the 80,000 decline was the biggest loss of that size since March of 2003.
The unemployment rate, moved up to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent in February. That was the highest rate since September of 2005.
This news was obviously well-anticipated by the market, seen from the action that transpired after the news broke. The Eur/Usd popped up, then shot down, then snapped back up..., staying within a narrow range for the rest of the day. All in all the market closed within 15 pips of where it was seconds before the report.
NOTE: I consider all of this talk about recession and bad economy “much ado about nothing”. Most countries in the European community would give their right eye for a 5.1 percent unemployment figure. And they have socialized medicine and governments which are anything but small.
What is not recognized by much of the world, and even many Americans who watch these figures and the news like a hawk to figure out what is really going on – is this: a huge portion of the “employed” Americans have more than one job. These over-employed Americans are extremely industrious people, creative beyond all parallel in the world because they actually have a system which rewards them if they come up with something new and innovative. If their excess productivity was measured against the non-productivity of the unemployed, there would be less concern about the NFP numbers the last few months.
Why do people in other countries who invent some cool device or technology immediately come to the US? Because they can get paid here for their brilliance. Relatively quickly, too.
I am not being a nationalist or chest-beater by saying this. They are the self-evident facts. Even though it gets to be a little “dog-eat-dog” sometimes, at least it is interesting here and you can meet some real innovators starting a world-beating company right down the street at the coffee shop.
On to a recap of our trading week--
We had no ONS trades executed.
The data below is as of Friday's close, April 4, 2008:
This week's Alpha account trading recap:
Start of week equity: $ 827.35
Completed FirstStrike trades:
Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5842, stopped out @ 1.5782 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Jpy: short @ 198.28, stopped out @ 198.88 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9875, stopped out @ 1.9935 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Chf: short @ .9913, stopped out @ .9973 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Jpy: short @ 99.27, stopped out @ 99.87 for a 60 pip loss
Total of 300 pips in losses.
Total of 0 pips in profits.
Net gain: 0 pips in profits.
OneNightStand Exit(s) on 03/31/08:
-None-
OneNightStand 04/04/08 entries:
None- No trades entered
Unrealized P&L: $ 0.00
End of week equity: $ 783.77 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss on Week: $ 43.58 (5.2% weekly decrease)
It was nice we didn't lose more. The markets were definitely choppy.
Have a good weekend. Next week should be better!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Thursday, April 3, 2008
Attention: Readers, and Nancy Pelosi --CORRECTION--
Attention: Readers, and Nancy Pelosi
The post of April 2, 2008 about Pelosi and specific statements attributed to her about wanting to tax 401K's – and just about anything else..., were in error. Huge error.
I normally do not check websites like http://www.snopes.com before I post a newsletter with information I get from a "trusted" source. That will change now.
I got an email about Nancy Pelosi and her views from a friend who has ALWAYS had his facts straight in our past dealings. He got blindsided and therefore, so did I.
While I wouldn't be at all surprised if the statements attributed to her parallell her actual feelings, the current facts are that it is a hoax info letter that has been making the rounds for a very long time. I will check my "facts" more clearly in the future.
I am very sorry, Nancy.
I will really check my facts before posting anything like that again!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
The post of April 2, 2008 about Pelosi and specific statements attributed to her about wanting to tax 401K's – and just about anything else..., were in error. Huge error.
I normally do not check websites like http://www.snopes.com before I post a newsletter with information I get from a "trusted" source. That will change now.
I got an email about Nancy Pelosi and her views from a friend who has ALWAYS had his facts straight in our past dealings. He got blindsided and therefore, so did I.
While I wouldn't be at all surprised if the statements attributed to her parallell her actual feelings, the current facts are that it is a hoax info letter that has been making the rounds for a very long time. I will check my "facts" more clearly in the future.
I am very sorry, Nancy.
I will really check my facts before posting anything like that again!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
Nancy Peloski to the Rescue!!! --IFCN Wk 17 -Tue- Equity: $783.77
Still out of the market, waiting for Friday.
The dollar has gotten stronger vs. the Japanese Yen.
After a correction today in the Eur/Usd, the dollar seems to be gaining again here too.
Since this Friday is the Non-Farm Payroll event, it is likely to have large potential because of the major flows of capital from bonds to stocks and from one currency's assets to another's.
Thursday will likely be a set-up day for Friday, and not be too directional. It will be interesting to see if we have any opportunities in OneNightStand this week.
-----(What follows is incorrect information that I received from a previously trusted source. Comments follow below....)
On another note, but in many ways more important..., just when you thought you've heard it all for the time being....
The powers that be think you need a GREAT BIG TAX on investments they said they would never tax you on.
That's what the Speaker of the House is saying. Read on---
Nancy Pelosi wants a Windfall Tax on Retirement Income!
Madam speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to put a Windfall Tax on all stock market profits (including Retirement funds, 401Ks and Mutual Funds!) Unfortunately, it is true - all done for the premise to help out the 12 million illegal immigrants and other unemployed minorities!
If this was a joke, it would be in poor taste.
She stated: “We need to work toward the goal of equalizing income in our country and at the same time limiting the amount the rich can invest.”
When asked how these new tax dollars would be spent, she replied: “We need to raise the standard of living of our poor, unemployed and minorities. For example, we have an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in our country who need our help along with millions of unemployed minorities. Stock market windfall profits taxes could go a long ways to guarantee these people the standard of living they would like to have as “Americans”."
Adding a tax to your retirement is simply another way of saying to the American people, “You're so stupid that we're going to keep doing this until we take every cent from you, that is-- the workers.”
(I have added an additional correction post. I was blindsided because my trusted information source was blindsided. But this goes to show me and probably others, you have to check the "facts" we are presented with every day which we usually accept and build upon. http://www.snopes.com is a great resource to check news related and especially internet promoted information. Again, sorry for the inaccuracy! I now trust even fewer people!)
My only recommendation is the following: Learn to make profits from these serious new trends, and bank them in something that is really secure. The surest thing we can count on is MORE OF THE SAME!
Have a good evening and new day!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
The dollar has gotten stronger vs. the Japanese Yen.
After a correction today in the Eur/Usd, the dollar seems to be gaining again here too.
Since this Friday is the Non-Farm Payroll event, it is likely to have large potential because of the major flows of capital from bonds to stocks and from one currency's assets to another's.
Thursday will likely be a set-up day for Friday, and not be too directional. It will be interesting to see if we have any opportunities in OneNightStand this week.
-----(What follows is incorrect information that I received from a previously trusted source. Comments follow below....)
On another note, but in many ways more important..., just when you thought you've heard it all for the time being....
The powers that be think you need a GREAT BIG TAX on investments they said they would never tax you on.
That's what the Speaker of the House is saying. Read on---
Nancy Pelosi wants a Windfall Tax on Retirement Income!
Madam speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to put a Windfall Tax on all stock market profits (including Retirement funds, 401Ks and Mutual Funds!) Unfortunately, it is true - all done for the premise to help out the 12 million illegal immigrants and other unemployed minorities!
If this was a joke, it would be in poor taste.
She stated: “We need to work toward the goal of equalizing income in our country and at the same time limiting the amount the rich can invest.”
When asked how these new tax dollars would be spent, she replied: “We need to raise the standard of living of our poor, unemployed and minorities. For example, we have an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in our country who need our help along with millions of unemployed minorities. Stock market windfall profits taxes could go a long ways to guarantee these people the standard of living they would like to have as “Americans”."
Adding a tax to your retirement is simply another way of saying to the American people, “You're so stupid that we're going to keep doing this until we take every cent from you, that is-- the workers.”
(I have added an additional correction post. I was blindsided because my trusted information source was blindsided. But this goes to show me and probably others, you have to check the "facts" we are presented with every day which we usually accept and build upon. http://www.snopes.com is a great resource to check news related and especially internet promoted information. Again, sorry for the inaccuracy! I now trust even fewer people!)
My only recommendation is the following: Learn to make profits from these serious new trends, and bank them in something that is really secure. The surest thing we can count on is MORE OF THE SAME!
Have a good evening and new day!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!
Tuesday, April 1, 2008
Eur/Usd has a double top! More Downside likely -- IFCN Wk 17 -Mon- Equity: $783.77
I got stopped out of this week's final two FirstStrike pairs, the short Gbp/Jpy and the short Usd/Chf. That makes all five FirstStrike trades concluded for the week with a total of 300 pips loss.
Current equity is $783.77. I will wait patiently for some possible OneNightStand trades this weekend.
The Euro/Usd does appear to have double-topped at the $1.59 area as I thought it should. Financially, I have profited highly from that view this week.
Finally, others are beginning to see cracks in the Euro. Its problems have only recently been receiving some press, as it has been oh so stylish to bash the US dollar. Even if it has deserved much of the drubbing. The Euro is a currency held by a group of countries who have less technological inspiration, less productivity, higher unemployment, higher taxes and are more Socialized than the country that uses the US dollar. This is a worldwide economy and very difficult for one continent to power on with out help from similar continental economies.
In no way is this a put-down at non-US countries. I personally would prefer living in many of them rather than most places in the States. But ignoring the facts about real values does no one any credit either.
I willingly sell the dollar if that is the way it must travel. And buy it if it is regaining value versus inflated views of other currencies.
Traders can afford no financial loyalty to a country's currency values except privately. As traders, we have no control over the macro issues, so must agree with the market's stance on the value of our personal currency.
Back to my statement about it being difficult for major economies to succeed without help.... I do not believe that the economies here in the States or in Europe are all that bad. I believe the negativity is WAY overhyped.
People are all eating. They are driving to work, and working when they get there. They are still buying stuff. They are grumbling. Grumbling is good. People will grumble when they don't have everything they want. But wanting things they don't have makes people creative. Being creative is good.
When people quit grumbling is when you should worry.
See you tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
Current equity is $783.77. I will wait patiently for some possible OneNightStand trades this weekend.
The Euro/Usd does appear to have double-topped at the $1.59 area as I thought it should. Financially, I have profited highly from that view this week.
Finally, others are beginning to see cracks in the Euro. Its problems have only recently been receiving some press, as it has been oh so stylish to bash the US dollar. Even if it has deserved much of the drubbing. The Euro is a currency held by a group of countries who have less technological inspiration, less productivity, higher unemployment, higher taxes and are more Socialized than the country that uses the US dollar. This is a worldwide economy and very difficult for one continent to power on with out help from similar continental economies.
In no way is this a put-down at non-US countries. I personally would prefer living in many of them rather than most places in the States. But ignoring the facts about real values does no one any credit either.
I willingly sell the dollar if that is the way it must travel. And buy it if it is regaining value versus inflated views of other currencies.
Traders can afford no financial loyalty to a country's currency values except privately. As traders, we have no control over the macro issues, so must agree with the market's stance on the value of our personal currency.
Back to my statement about it being difficult for major economies to succeed without help.... I do not believe that the economies here in the States or in Europe are all that bad. I believe the negativity is WAY overhyped.
People are all eating. They are driving to work, and working when they get there. They are still buying stuff. They are grumbling. Grumbling is good. People will grumble when they don't have everything they want. But wanting things they don't have makes people creative. Being creative is good.
When people quit grumbling is when you should worry.
See you tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
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