Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Let the Reader Use Discernment! -IFCN WK 67 - Tues- Equity: $2,338.19

There is a truth that gets repeated just often enough for you to remember hearing it before, but too quickly forgotten when the latest episode of your life slaps you into temporary submission..., that is- “those who refuse to remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.

It would be best if an understanding of history was regarded as a crucial talisman against catastrophe by those who affect the present and future lives of so many others around them. As we can observe in just the last year's financial exposés, few of the offenders ever considered what financial mayhems occurred before them, except perhaps as a guide to fleecing their prey more effectively before they got caught.

There are too many failed financial schemes in the past to recount, most of the best itemized and dramatized well in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. The famous tome is a wealth of history of popular follies by author Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. I recommend that any person wishing to profit from markets- especially in these unique times- immediately obtain the book and read it straightaway. A one-time reading of the Tulip Mania account - which occurred a mere 370 years ago - is worth the price of the book. You will refer to it many times over the years to reassure yourself that you aren't mad, the world likely is.

Something a few of us are doing more than we will readily admit to.

One of my favorite personages, Thomas Jefferson, drew from his lifelong study of history, theory and practice to become the main author of the Declaration of Independence, and become the desperately needed 3rd President of the United States. He was the original “reluctant hero”, who had no desire to govern men because of the lack of appreciation received when the governing is truly fair.

Finance is not a discovery of the last 20 years. Jefferson understood that countries like ours are created and maintained primarily for profit, not to make all personal ills right. When they stop being run for profit, the safety and security of the country declines. Eventually even a great country will be brought to ruin if the inmates (or those who should be) are allowed to make the rules and make YOU pay for their liberty at the expense of your own.

Jefferson's thoughts on banking apply only too well today, and our downfall is assured if his warning is disregarded:

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs. “

I know that if he was aware of what was transpiring in our country today, he'd be spinning in his grave.

A final quote from our 3rd President:

...Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government...it is their Right, it is their Duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future Security.
Thomas Jefferson – The Declaration of Independence

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I had one FirstStrikePlus trade get stopped out, the Gbp/Usd. Meanwhile, the Eur/Usd is still holding, the Usd/Chf is sagging and the Japanese Yen affected pairs are making narrow ranges.

Quite a showdown situation building.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stopped at 1.3980 for 191 pip loss.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,717.19

Silver position equity: $621.00
(Current XAG price: $12.67 – 300 unit position average: $10.60)
TOTAL Equity: $2,338.19

The recent abrupt silver swings toy with the total equity, but the likelihood of abrupt higher prices in the near future tempers too much concern.

It is interesting that the first 2 days of this week have been burned through and we only have had two entries. Maybe something spectacular will happen later in the week.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, March 16, 2009

The Dollar is Losing its Grip! -IFCN WK 67 – Monday- Equity: $2,413.69

This morning we got some early strength in the Pound and Euro triggering long FirstStrikePlus trades, carry-over strength in the Gbp/Jpy almost triggered a long position there also.

At today's open I exited my elective long eur/usd trade from last week for a 155 pip profit. There were no OneNightStand trades entered on Friday to be exited this morning.

In the last four trading sessions we have started to see some grudging strength develop, which is actually a better indication of a currency turn-around than a quick, sharp move. That kind of action would tend to indicate a simple reaction.

Nevertheless, the sterling and euro backed off considerably from their highs today. I would have preferred a bit more strength, but the market gives what it gives-- and we work with it.

We came into the week short the gbp/usd and gbp/jpy, but those trades didn't last very long. The trading community focused on comments from Bernanke and some believe that caused the foreign currencies to gain on the dollar. I simply believe that the dollar's strength is grossly overdone and is likely to wane from this area.

Week's beginning equity at Monday's open: $2,485.44 w/XAG =13.05

This morning's action:
*Long eur/usd @ 1.2744 exited this morning's open at 1.2899 for 155 pip profit.
*Short gbp/jpy @ 136.71, stopped at 139.09 for 238 pip loss.
*Short gbp/usd @ 1.3993, stopped at 1.4132. for 139 pip loss.

-----

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stop 1.3980. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,711.69

Silver position equity: $702.00
(Current XAG price: $12.94 – 300 unit position average: $10.60)
TOTAL Equity: $2,413.69

This should be an interesting week.

What markets actually do when there is new potential open to them is extremely revealing for the future.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Weekly Rollercoaster Profits! -IFCN WK 67 - Monday- Equity:$2,485.44

I have completed the recap of the past few weeks' action in the IFCN challenge account. It has seen dramatic swings, but then again-- we have seen dramatic swings in mood and markets in the past month.

When markets get tired of their borders they usually trend. I know that I'm not alone in welcoming some solid forex trends.

I've finally been able to arrange my schedule to make more frequent posting possible. Maybe the markets will favor us with some moves so as to make trading a little more endurable.

I don't actually mind losses that much -- having endured so many thousands of them over the years -- but I do get tired of choppy markets with seeming endless abortive moves.

Now that a number of major currency pairs have broached some important technical trendlines, at least some greater potential exists for our trading.

As you will notice on the following recap of the past few weeks, we had some unusual and oftentimes beneficial equity curve swings because of the combination of FSP trades and our XAG ballast position. We had losing trading weeks but the increase in the value of silver still raised the equity.

Another time the currencies had a great week and XAG had a poor week, offsetting the profits. I personally am ok with that kind of action and it shows that both the currencies AND XAG (silver) are alternately being considered a store of value.

That makes a short hop for the rest of the public becoming increasingly aware of alternative value options in metals.

Also, you may wish to take note that on March 4th I added another 100 units (oz) of XAG (silver). This now makes a total position of 300 units in XAG with an average price of $10.60. I will risk the current XAG position down to $8.40. Some may disagree with this posture, but that is their choice.

When silver exceeds $20 and then $30/ounce, it will be very rewarding to have this "excess" ballast position in the Challenge account. I will no doubt have added substantially more XAG by then.
-----
-IFCN WK 63
start $2,707.30 w/XAG =13.55
Feb 16, 2008---FirststrikePlus

  • short eur/usd @ 1.2635, stopped at 1.2784 for 149 pip loss.
  • long gbp/jpy@ 133.63, exited at 135.03 for 140 pip profit.
  • long gbp/usd@ 1.4475, exited at 1.4516 for 41 pip profit.
  • long usd/jpy@ 92.51, stopped at 91.58 for 93 pip loss.
  • short usd/chf @ 1.1588, stopped at 1.1700 for 112 pip loss.

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OneNightStand trades for Friday, Feb. 20, 2008.

  • long usd/chf @1.1828, stopped at 1.1728 for 100 pip loss.

-----
-IFCN WK 64
start $2,783.32 w/XAG =14.34
Feb. 23, 2008---FirststrikePlus

  • short eur/usd @ 1.2785, exited at 1.2582 for 203 pip profit.
  • long gbp/jpy@ 137.06, exited at 138.79 for 173 pip profit.
  • long gbp/usd @ 1.4634, stopped at 1.4477 for 157 pip loss.
  • long usd/chf @ 1.1654, exited at 1.1727 for 73 pip profit.
  • short usd/jpy @ 93.90, exited at 97.50 for 360 pip profit.

-----
OneNightStand trades for Friday, Feb. 27, 2009. -NONE

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-IFCN WK 65
start $2,697.28 w/XAG =13.30
Mar. 2, 2008---FirststrikePlus

  • short eur/usd @ 1.2465, stopped at 1.2621 for 156 pip loss.
  • short gbp/jpy@ 136.73, stopped at 139.48 for 275 pip loss.
  • short gbp/usd@ 1.4077, stopped at 1.4285 for 208 pip loss.
  • long usd/chf @ 1.1817, stopped at 1.1697 for 120 pip loss.
  • long usd/jpy @ 99.24, stopped at 96.92 for 232 pip loss.

----
OneNightStand trades for Friday, Mar. 6, 2009. -NONE

Important NOTE: On March 4, I bought 100 units of XAG @ 13.00
Total XAG Position= 300 units @ 10.60 average.

-----
-IFCN WK 66
start $2,568.84 w/XAG =13.21
Mar. 9, 2009---FirststrikePlus

  • long eur/usd @ 1.2744, stopped at 1.2621 for 119 pip loss.
  • short gbp/jpy @ 136.71, stopped out 3/16/09 at 139.09 for 238 pip loss.
  • short gbp/usd @ 1.3993, stopped out 3/16/09 at 1.4132 for 139 pip loss.
  • short usd/chf @ 1.1483, stopped out at 1.4132 for 146 pip loss.
  • long usd/jpy @ 99.14, stopped at 97.89 for 125 pip loss.
  • long eur/usd @ 1.2744, exited at 1.2899 for 155 profit.

-----
OneNightStand trades for Friday, Mar. 13, 2009. -None
-----

-IFCN WK 67
start $2,485.44 w/XAG =
13.05
March 16, 2009 --00:00 CST


That brings us up to the current week, which will follow directly.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thursday, March 12, 2009

Can the Forex Markets Get Worse?

Probably, but not likely.

An interesting report came out from the Blackstone Group. (http://www.blackstone.com)

Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone's CEO, said on Tuesday that, “Between 40 and 45 percent of the world's wealth has been destroyed in little less than a year and a half. This is absolutely unprecedented in our lifetime.”

After laying much of the blame for today's financial crises at the foot of credit rating agencies, he said that some of the best opportunities available for investors wishing to recoup their fortunes lie in well-chosen bond issues. I'm sure he is right, but most of those who are stung from recent losses are like the cat who just got burned on the stove – not willing to ever get back on the stove again no matter how cool it is now.

I personally don't believe those numbers. I think actual losses are a bit less, maybe 30 - 35%. Maybe 40 - 45% if everyone in a loss position tried to get out at the same time.

The worst is likely over.

That still doesn't make the people who were in ponzi schemes and experienced total loss feel very good. Actually, no one is doing very well except for mortgage investigators and those who are doing bank workouts.

Most have heard the term "smart money". It usually refers to the ephemeral group of insiders or money movers who have the best information and opportunities for profit due to the lack of understanding of the masses.

In the recent crises, there were many who didn't like the way financial markets were acting and either got out or hedged themselves in the same markets. Many oil companies hedged themselves by selling $120+ crude oil for the next few years of production, thereby insulating themselves from the current doldrums that besiege the majority of financial mavens who only seek mediocrity and a great sales pitch.

Anybody who was buying and selling of real estate in the last 3 years saw the severe drop in quality of market participants, causing the most seasoned to exit properties a year or more before values imploded.

To turn the corner in our economy now, the "smart money" has to start picking up on the opportunities available and the rest of the world has to realize it when they do it.

It obviously will take time. Fortunately, there will be movement of capital and substantial currency flows that will precede any sizeable recovery. That should result in profit potential for currency traders like ourselves.

Those of you who have continued entering ONS and FirstStrike Plus trades over the last few weeks are to be commended.

It is frustrating to deal with choppy, indecisive markets-- and especially the lackluster returns from trading them.

I too have been entering the trades, along with hundreds of others that I place in accord with my futures trading. The last 3 months have been some of the more challenging times I've experienced in my whole trading career, so don't feel alone if you are market-weary.

I just sent out the emails for OneNightStand orders for Friday. It is possible that we may get a trade or two. The action that we saw today on Usd/Chf was astounding.. I wouldn't be surprised if Thursday's action (Swiss National Bank bought euros and dollars/sold francs in an intervention move) is a blow-off move. Anyone who was previously short is likely out or turned long Usd/Chf.

The idea behind the SNB's actions was ostensibly to help the economy, which includes an interest rate cut and scheduled bond purchases. We'll all be watching to see how well their poorly timed interventions work out.

-----

FirstStrike Plus trades executed this week:

  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2744, stopped at 1.2625 for a 119 pip loss.
  • gbp/jpy: Short @ 136.71, stop 139.09. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/usd: Short @ 1.3993, stop 1.4132. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.1483, stopped at 1.1628 for 146 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Long @ 99.14, stopped at 97.89 for a 125 pip loss.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2744, stop 1.2625. Trade in progress.

As you can see, I re-entered the eur/usd the original buy point and stoploss. I know that I am taking greater risk by doing this, but the market structure has been encouraging.

There will be a more comprehensive update of the Challenge account's trades for the last few weeks this weekend. Amazing how time flies when you are busy.

Thanks for your attention and kind words.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Character Building-- One New Equity High at a Time! - IFCN Wk 62 –Friday- Equity: $2,727.50

This was another brutal week for followers of FirstStrikePlus. These weeks are inevitable, but when they happen, they still can sting. I'm glad there weren't any OneNightStand trades on Friday. When forex markets are as choppy as we've seen recently, ONS trades rarely make much money. Still, if they occur, the odds are to take them.

To add insult to injury, every day seeing the future world economy in the process of being savagely ruined by lovers of Mr. O. leaves me pretty cold too.

But-- back to trading; some have written to me asking why the Challenge account doesn't take both long and short trades, meaning if one of the orders gets executed and subsequently stopped out-- then taking the opposite trade. This week's action is one of the good examples of why I don't.

Over thousands of trades, if you consistently took the second trade in the opposite direction after the first trade loss, (and even a 3rd and a 4th if the previous trades get stopped out) your execution results would be very likely be quite positive. They have been significantly so in the past. But the actual drawdowns one experiences trading in that manner have been very extreme at times. Like this week.

If you continuously reversed in the Eur/Usd pair this week you would have lost 3 consecutive trades and be underwater in a 4th. If you continuously reversed in the Usd/Chf this week you would have lost 4 consecutive trades. If you were risking a mere 1% per trade you could have lost nearly 8% of your account equity in just those two pairs alone. If similar losses occurred in the other weekly trades you can imagine the bloodbath to your account.

Even if the reverse trades have a sizable edge, which they indeed do--- the immediate risk to capital is something to consider.

The best trades are those which get executed at the earliest part of the week and continue throughout the rest of the week, never backing up at all. I prefer to defer to those trades and leave the reverse trades to those who are willing to put up with larger drawdowns than I am at this point in the Challenge account.

-----

Again, this week we've seen our trading equity severely reduced and our XAG position equity increasing proportionately to absorb the losses and continue on to new equity highs. Can this go on for much longer?

I doubt it. But I'll accept the situation like we accept the prediction of an early spring from the Punxsutawney groundhog. Tenuously.


-----

FirstStrike Plus trades executed this week:
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4970, stopped at 1.4653 for a 318 pip loss.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.3038, stopped at 1.2892 for a 146 pip loss.
  • gbp/jpy: Short @ 130.86, stop 135.46. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.1510, stopped at 1.1648 for 138 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 90.07, stopped at 91.54 for 147 pip loss.
As mentioned above, no OneNightStand trades occurred Friday.

Trading account equity: $1,869.50

Silver position equity: $858.00
(Current XAG price: $13.69 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,727.50

Keep up the good work. I know that I'm not the only one taking these trades. When you suffer drawdowns it may build character, but does character have to cost so much? Apparently so, when you choose to learn from the experience.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Week starting Feb. 9, 2009 - IFCN Wk 62 –Mon- Equity: $2,695.01

Last week saw a lot of red ink in the FirstStrikePlus trades and even the lone ONS trade taken in the Usd/Chf.

The only bright spot was, again; the XAG (silver) which ran up so much that we still had a new equity high by Monday morning, Feb. 9.

How long can this continue? Amazingly long, obviously.

As most of you know, I am quite bullish silver and silver derivatives. I have every belief that silver will outperform gold, oil, stocks, and almost every possible currency in the next five years. Nevertheless, even a strong market has corrections.

There is a possibility that we may get a noticeable correction in silver (XAG) and gold (XAU) in the last couple of weeks of February. If we don't, we could have a very serious rise ahead. (I got this info from personal long term cycle work, via W.D. Gann)

I know there haven't been many updates from me over the past week(s). It is not my style to write just to keep myself entertained, and the markets have not been very entertaining.

Actually, they've been a lot of work. I actively trade 20 futures markets and 5 currencies, (forex and futures) I've more than held my own over the last few months, but not without the market getting in quite a few licks in the meantime.

I would rather not get into how many times coffee futures trades and crude oil trades have gone from incredible profits to amazing losses overnight.

Such is the life of an “alpha” derivatives trader. Only by taking every one of “my” trades as they show up is it possible to extract the profits from inevitable significant moves that make this a business; instead of the gambling exercise most neophytes see it. (and treat it)

As of Monday, February 9, 00:00 CST – here is the status of the trades from the previous week:

Week of February 2, 2009---FirststrikePlus trades
  • gbp/usd: Short @ 1.4125, stopped at 1.4506 for 381 pip loss.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2894, stop 1.2673. Still in play-profitable
  • gbp/jpy: Short @ 126.13, stopped at 130.27 for 414 pip loss.
  • usd/chf: Short from 1.1450, stopped at 1.1674 for 224 pip loss.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.1541, stopped at 1.1680 for 139 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Long @ 90.09, stopped at 88.97 for 193 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 88.97, stopped at 89.90 for 93 pip loss.
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OneNightStand trades for Friday, January 30, 2009
*Usd/Chf: long @ 1.1742, stopped at 1.1642 for 100 pip loss.

Trading account equity: $1,955.01
Loss from previous week: $ 92.73

Silver position equity: $ 740.00
(Current XAG price: $13.10 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,695.01

It will be interesting to see what the next weeks' action will bring.

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Notice! While the Challenge account keeps making new equity highs, even by a little bit each week, but we keep losing in our FirstStrike trades, it tends to indicate that a serious drawdown is possible. Perhaps XAG will have a sizable correction or, perhaps FSP will continue to have numerous losses each week for a while.

One thing is very noticeable: the currency markets, along with most of the other main markets, such as the energies and stock markets-- are in ranges that are chopping every trader out there.

Either way, I will keep putting on the trades. I thought I would mention the possibility of a noticeable correction in equity. I'm sure you've had similar feelings.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Monday, February 2, 2009

Another New Equity High - IFCN Wk 61 –Mon- Equity: $2,659.74

We are doing something right.

On Friday we closed very strong in our positions in XAG (silver), and FirstStrike Plus positions of gbp/jpy and gbp/usd. By Monday morning, the prices were much less favorable, but still favorable enough in the Sterling pairs to take decent profits.

Last week the long FSP eur/usd was a disappointment bringing a loss early last Friday. By Friday, we had significant losses in the short usd/chf and the long usd/jpy pairs too. That is what one can expect after a large, profitable week like the previous one.

Maybe we will start to get some basing action in these currencies and some strength vs. the dollar. It is a long week until the monthly Employment report this Friday.

-----

As of Monday, February 2, 00:00 CST – here is the status of the following trades coming in from the previous week:

Week of January 26, 2009---FirststrikePlus trades
gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4024, exited at 1.4411 for 387 pip profit.
eur/usd: Long @ 1.3096, stopped at 1.2867 for 229 pip loss.
gbp/jpy: Long @125.99, exited at 129.23 for 324 pip profit
usd/chf: Short @ 1.1450, stop 1.1674. Trade in progress.
usd/jpy: Long @ 90.09, stop 88.97. Trade in progress.
-----
OneNightStand trades for Friday, January 30, 2009
*None-

Trading account equity: $2,047.74
Loss from previous week: $25.18

Silver position equity: $612.00
(Current XAG price: $12.46 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,659.74

Looking forward to another week.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!