Monday, August 11, 2008

The Dollar's Herculean Strength Continues! --IFCN Wk 36 -Mon- Equity: $835.63.

The forex world is running for cover again this week from the new dollar bulls. Traders who just weeks ago thought the dollar was finished and would never recover are frantically buying the dollar as if it is the last game in town.

It isn't. But it might feel that way if you were short any sizable amount.

This morning I had the pleasure to exit the ONS trades from last Friday. We picked up a few more dollars from the weekend hold, primarily due to the continued down move of the Eur/Usd.

OneNightStand 08/08/08 entries--
All below exited this morning, 08/11/08, after midnight--
*Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.5192 –exited at 1.4979 for 213 pips profit.
*Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.9269 –exited at 1.9194 for 75 pips profit.
*Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.0714 –Exited at 1.0814 for 100 pips profit.
*Usd/Jpy: Long @ 109.89 –Exited at 110.05 for 15 pips profit.
Total Profits: $ 30.22

Then came the placing of the week's FirstStrike orders:

Soon after, all 5 trades were executed and summarily stopped out by early morning.

The following were this week's FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: Short @1.4935, stopped out at 1.4995 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @210.57, stopped out at 211.47 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: Short @1.9148, stopped out at 1.9208 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: Short @ 1.0764, stopped out at 1.0824 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 109.56, stopped out at 110.16 for a 60 pip loss.
It is common for the markets to be fairly choppy after big moves like we experienced last week. So, out of the markets at least until Friday where there may be some potential OneNightStand trades--- we can do some study, some research and maybe think a little about the psychology of trading.

On Friday, I asked if any of you had some good success from taking the trades last week, and for those who felt like it to send an email so I could share some feedback so people can see how normal human thought processes need to be modified in the quest to become capable traders.

I got an overabundance of responses, and I thank you all very much for your contributions. I have to admit that I was actually amazed that so many have been faithfully pulling the trigger on these trades through the bad weeks as well as the good ones like last week.

I will post a few of them below tonight, and tomorrow post a few more.

Some key trading fundamentals came up naturally in some of the emails and I want to make sure others get to see them.

Some of the emails I received follow below:
(I'm sorry there is not room for all of them, thanks again to all of the writers)
I was surprised to hear about the trader that didn't get his fills at Oanda, must say I have never had a problem with them but my trades are small compared to some of the other traders there. Anyway it has been a good week for me to with my little system, here is the spreadsheet for the systems trades for the week. The only difference is I closed ou this morning with 152 pips instead of the 209 that were available at day's end, I still get a little nervous I guess though I am getting better.
Have a great weekend,

Great trading week. Amazing in fact. As you know, I was in a pretty serious drawdown (64%) and this one week, I gained 80%. Now I am almost back to my original account balance and I am confident I will surpass my previous high over time whether it is from this trend or another.

I didn't like that drawdown, but generally I was okay. That is not to say I didn't go through the typical psychological crap. I did. But, the best result is, I persevered and stuck with the discipline. This showed me how strong the method is once you hop on a trend (and it was early in the trend) and maintain your discipline.

I should have learned the lesson below from your posts already. I made an assumption. First mistake. I took vacation this week (first in 2 years but yes I did work all week anyway, just did it from beach)
and did not bring my computer knowing there was one here already. I was on the computer a few times on Thursday and I decided that after I everyone went to bed I would set up the ONS trades. Well, there was a big storm and the internet went out. I couldn't believe it. I had much more anxiety over that then I did about my drawdown. It was midnight and all I could do was sit and watch the damn modem light wishing for it to go back on. Please stop blinking and go solid. Please.

I then looked for an all night internet cafe somewhere on the island via phonebook to no avail. I actually contemplated waking up a relative who lives here. That would have won me some points with the family.

I couldn't sleep as I was as anxious as a teenager the night before his big first date. I kept checking the connection every couple of hours for service. Waiting, waiting. This was like watching water boil. Painful.

Finally, it dawned on me that I could try to access my account through my phone. They have a beta for this on Oanda that I had looked at before. Not charting but can trade. I then contemplated violating one of my cardinal rules, which would be to rely on your e-mail to signal the trades. Key word is contemplated. Luckily, early the night before I had looked at the 10/40 MA and recalled the direction for the buys/sell. I was fairly confident, after this weeks trend and the current prices, that the MA lines weren't going to change in those hours.

I entered my trades solely from my memory as to where the highs and lows were and surprisingly I wasn't that far off. In fact G/J, was right on, not that it makes a difference with that trade. I did miss some movement in the trades but still profitable heading into weekend.

My lesson: always be prepared. I went out and promptly bought a wireless cell card for my laptop and will add a dial up account to my repetoire as well. Will this get entered in my book of shame?

Without a doubt.

Hi Joel,

Great trading this week for you alpha account. I can only imagine how your other trading accounts did. I was trading your first strike method and had a 21% increase in my capital from this week. I have traded it a total of 4 weeks now (3 weeks in drawdown(-8%) and 1 profitable week (+21%)). I just wanted to say thank for all of your help to us small fish out here.
Thanks for your help,

Thanks to all of you again for all of your meaningful responses.

See you tomorrow.

Current equity is $835.63.

Joel Rensink

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

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