1185 % increase since December 2007

I'm glad to have a chance to make an update.

Sorry about my long absences. But, trading is what I do for a living and when duty calls..., it usually takes the form of an early morning Eur/Usd or coffee trade.

This year has been one of my busiest and most personally profitable. Last year was terrific for me in my personal trading - especially the last half - so this year is a unsuspected bonus. All markets have ebbs and flows, and right now the majority of the world's money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for confirmation of something to make a commitment.

When volatility starts to increase due to that commitment, I have to get involved. You already know the drill.

Since the last update in April --- in the Challenge account I have made 108 FirstStrikePlus and ONS trades and added 600 ounces to the long XAG position. The previous position of 400 ounces had an average of $10.95.

The 3 silver additions were: 200 ounces @13.04, 200 ounces @ 13.70 and 200 ounces @14.31.

This makes an average position of 1000 ounces of XAG @12.59.

Due to this enhanced position and the beneficial price action of the last month in silver – we have hit new equity highs. The Challenge account shows a 1185 % increase since December 2007 when I started the blog and the account with just $500. This is equivalent to a 677% annual average return.

That even impresses me.

At the time I started this site very few believed it was possible to get such percentage increases, especially after publicly declaring that intent. Now that many others following this Challenge have had similar gains, it isn't so unreasonable in people's minds.

Nevertheless, if one wishes to follow along on some or all of the trades taken here, remember that pure risk capital be used. If your lifestyle and that of your family will not be hampered by the loss of the money risked, it usually qualifies as risk capital.

Last week we had another week of losses in FirstStrikePlus.

Week of Aug. 31, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.4342, stopped at 1.4262 for 80 pip loss.
gbp/jpy: Long @ 152.30, stopped at 150.06 for 224 pip loss.
gbp/usd: Long @1.6355, stopped at 1.6206 for 149 pip loss.
usd/chf: Short @1.0553, stopped at 1.0626 for 73 pip loss.
usd/jpy: Long @ 93.29, stopped at 92.55 for 74 pip loss.

-----
OneNightStand trades executed Friday, Sept. 4, 2009:
-None-

Trading account equity: $ 2,816.41
Loss from previous week: $ 214.56.

Silver position equity: $ 3,610.00
(Current XAG price: $16.20– 1000 unit position average: $12.59)
TOTAL Equity: $ 6,426.41

There is a strong difference between investing and trading. Especially when you are willing to put up with substantial drawdowns despite constant trading..., while waiting for your “edge” to reassert itself.

This last week we saw a sharp move up in silver and gold. A significant part of the Challenge account could be considered by many an "investment" in silver. It really is a trade, just a very long term one - I will be happy to sell when volatility becomes extreme at higher levels. As long as inflation demons lurk in the shadows, the trade should prosper easily.

As most of you know, I've been bullish silver since the $8.40 low. Time and price (Gann indications) came in very strongly then and I have more personal certainty that silver low will never be seen again than the USA will remain capitalist for the next 4 years. (I do believe that even if we should have to suffer socialism, it will be as short-lived as Prohibition was. And it will end badly for the perpetrators.)

I've calculated that with the current equity and a modest 60% increase per year for the next 7 years will build the Challenge account into over $160K. Of course, increases like we experienced over the last year and a half can't be expected all the time. But if I do just a fraction as well as I've done already-- I could hit a million+ in those 7 years.

Some have emailed me commenting on how dismal the current returns have been trading First Strike Plus and OneNightStand.

Yes, I know.

That is definitely the way trading is, you keep taking trades that have a statistical edge and get hammered (experiencing losses) until you don't. If that is what you've been experiencing, congratulations! You've been trading the same markets I have.

The spectacular gains I've enjoyed in the last month (as already mentioned) were due primarily to my silver position. I expect that a significant amount of the Challenge account's gains for the next few years will be from silver enhancement. Silver is increasing the account size while currencies are just holding their own.

Eventually the currency markets will take off and we should profit as we have in the past. That's one of the reasons there is so much latent profit potential in proper trading of markets. The vast majority of market watchers/traders get sick and tired of getting hammered (experiencing more losses) and stop trading. The market, now clear of side currents – starts trending again. (By then, that majority has found a new “shouldn't lose” system and they repeat the process.)

For those of us in the USA, have a good Labor Day holiday.

Best of wishes to you all. I cautiously look forward to the FSP trades this week. The ranges have narrowed tremendously and the potential for large profits is here. Or just our usual containable losses.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Markets Finally Coming Back to Life!

Like many who read this blog, I save key thoughts and phrases I find over the years. I write them down when I find them in periodicals, old books, and sometimes even the internet (usually a poorer place to find brilliance in print).

I found the following missive yesterday going through 5 year-old trading records. I had written it in longhand on the back of one of my older silver charts. Moral: It pays to go through your old records.

You Can Do or Be Whatever You Desire.

You have to get disgusted. You have to make a decision to change. You have to visualize that change becoming a reality. And you must take the action necessary to make it happen.

Time is what puts everyone on a level playing field. It's a non-renewable resource; when it's gone, it's gone, and you can't get it back. I have 24 hours in my day - no more and no less than you do in yours. It's what you choose to do during those hours that will keep you broke or make you a fortune.

I know I saved the above because the thoughts definitely apply to trading, and anything else of value too. I will address some critical points from it in a few minutes.

The last few months have been busy for me, and very likely you too. With the new administration in Washington, many who were thrilled aren't as thrilled, the others who weren't thrilled are even less thrilled and the socialists among us are ecstatic. But this post isn't going to be about my strong reservations about government (in the specific tense or in general).

The fact is that somewhere between 10 and 25 Trillion dollars has been dumped into various places in the U.S. economy. Some of these places are banks, who will hold on to the money until they get the permission or certitude that they will be able to better their return than the interest they receive putting the “gift money” back with the government in T-Bills.

Other receivers of “gift money” are bank funds or government shills who are just waiting for conditions (like some healthy public confidence) that will enable them to invest in businesses and various stock entities. Either way, whatever these “gifted ” entities are waiting for eventually will take place and the money will be leaked into the economy.

Then the money will be returned as deposits and then be lent out again, only multiplied many-fold to more people/businesses and the madness will return that makes traders and speculators so valuable and happy for awhile.

The above is inevitable. Plus, the money that the general public thinks was lost in the last year and a half will somehow find its way back to the market and make a future economic boom that will be hard to imagine for the average currently numb and depressed mutual fund holder.

Economics 101: (Print out this rule and stick it on your trading wall/desk/computer/monitor)

Money, once created, never disappears. It is only transferred to a position of higher utility.

Meaning, the money that the majority of the baby-boomers had exposed and lost from their 401Ks and mutual funds got liberated by those who had a more correct view of financial circumstances and are currently applying to the “next big thing”.

The next BIG THING? Inflation on a scale previously never experienced, because there has never been this much money created in the world just waiting to be spent.

There are those who would beg to differ or fight about some of the points above , but the statements prove true when the applicable country's currency remains intact, a full business cycle completes, AND the country remains CAPITALIST in nature.

So, if you have time, patience and the certain knowledge that the U.S. will remain capitalist, there is no problem.

Do you have all 3? I do not, just the first 2.

There is another element necessary. You need sufficient capital – if you wish to profit from a capitalist system.

If you don't have capital for the coming inflationary times right now, get it somehow, soon.

Back to the paragraph at the start of this post about being able to be or do whatever you desire.

Right now it is popular in this country to blame the productive and the risk-takers for the problems many suffer. Never is it mentioned that every individual also has to think, plan and be responsible for their own assets and future opportunities.

The idea that the government should “take care of us” and be responsible for redistributing wealth is epidemic – and greedily seconded by the half of the country who prefers to receive – instead of struggle for something better by themselves with their own ingenuity. The “taking action” part is the crux. If so many are afraid to fail – with the result that they never take risks, then those who ARE willing to take reasonable risks have improved their odds to succeed tremendously.

What you choose to accomplish in your 24 hours a day will determine your success in the future. Especially in trading.

Life is trading. All based on choice – yours.

You can live wherever you want. Why not live in a place where there is low crime and plenty of money (and opportunities)? Instead of renting, you can buy a property that has a better chance of appreciation because of its location.

By your financial decisions you can create the best credit rating possible.

You can work wherever you want. You can educate yourself to whatever degree you wish and attain what success you demand of yourself. Maybe it will take time and effort. Make the effort if you wish the results.

You can choose the size of your family. You can marry well, or not at all.

You can be as healthy as your genetics allow by taking care of your diet and exercise.

If you trade and invest, you need to do more – care more – than the rest of the market participants to ensure you have an edge that you will act on – every time. When others stumble, you can get ahead. I was relentless for 18 hours a day for 5 years to make sure I had a viable edge for trading. Then it got just a little easier for the next 25 years. I care more and execute every time when others might just think, "Maybe the market won't go up this time. Maybe silver is in a bear market just like Bob Prechter says."

Did anyone say doing all these things is easy? No. But they are doable, attainable by those who are willing to take relentless action.

Beware a government that promises easy answers to success-for-some by handing the bill to others who will never benefit.

Thomas Jefferson must be spinning in his grave.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Free Markets Benefit Man Best!

Most people are not aware of how difficult it is to trade systematically.

At first it may not seem like such a big deal, but after you do it over a long period of time, and you see the markets move counter to your method at times that you "just knew they would" ..., you start wanting to deviate more.

Market Wizard Bill Dunn -

Below are links to two great videos with a man who has had serious experience trading in the forex and futures markets over the decades. He has had volatile results (read: severe drawdowns), but he also has had an unending series of new equity highs to show for his consistency.

His message: follow your system exactly! After you have proven statistically that it will work.

He also has strong views on the benefit of "free markets" and the likelihood of success of those who would think that they can "do better" than the markets.

Watch Bill Dunn's 2 videos....

Part 1

Part 2

See what you think.

Joel Rensink

Trading Review

The last month has seen spectacular results.

The trading review is coming....

NFP day-

Two economists meet on the street.
One inquires, "How's your wife?"
The other responds, "Relative to what?"

-----

Thoughts specially for traders who've been in the battle for the last few weeks:

"Genius is only a greater aptitude for patience."--
George-Louis Leclerc de Buffon ('Buffon's needle problem' came from him, he is one of few Frenchmen I've appreciated.)
"The two most powerful warriors are patience and time."--
Leo Tolstoy (Brilliant inveterate gambler who wrote War and Peace)
"I am extraordinarily patient provided I get my own way in the end."--
Margaret Thatcher (I wish she were our president.)

Later this morning we will have the NFP (Non-farm Payroll) news. Perhaps that will trigger some OneNightStand trades. I wouldn't be surprised if they find out that projected job losses aren't as bad as they've thought.

More later....

JR

Fibonacci and Inflation! -Thursday, April 30, 2009

I was sent a very interesting link from a trader buddy who agrees with my long-time-held assessment that super inflation is on its way, whether anyone wants to believe it or not.

This is the beginning of the FIBONACCI SEQUENCE:

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, ...

I'm sure most of you who have heard of Fibonacci's sequence probably think it's main application is in price movements and retracement levels-- it is highly revered by many in that use.

Where it finds greatest power is in the application of time cycles. Walter Roman wrote an interesting article about inflation and Fibonacci you can access here:

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2009/0430.html

I'll be adding this week's trades to this post.....

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

April 13 - 20 recap

Last week's recap--

Letters from Readers! - IFCN WK 71 -Thu - Equity: $2,635.76

We've had a lot of swinging in the markets, mostly negative to my equity since posting earlier today.

XAG took it on the chin again. The Gbp/Usd dropped as did the Eur/Usd. In general, the market is listless. I'm glad the weekend is coming.

I got a few emails recently from readers who've had some success following this site. I'm reprinting them below:

Subject: Re: Happy IFC follower

Hi Joel-

I had the good fortune of finding the infiniteyield forex challenge eight months ago and have been consistently placing the trades ever since
All I can say is WOW , after trading for 4 years with little to no success it feels great to finally be on the right track , not only have I earned money in the last eight months but I have also gained a great wealth of knowledge following your blog and the Infiniteyield newsletters. I sincerely thank you for helping me and other struggling traders , you truly are a kind soul for sharing . I "KNOW" I am on my way to becoming a professional trader.
All the best to you and in your trades

Mxxxxx Rxxx
British Columbia ,Canada

--And from earlier in the week---

3 of the 4 orders came in beautiful today.
Whether they will hold for the week though, I dunno, I think the Eur/USD is going to head down, whether it will get stopped at 1.3123 we shall see.
(I primarily trade Eur/Usd exclusively, I'm placeing these FS orders on a demo, to see how they work, your equity growth has been pretty impressive with this method so far)
I've read the rules, but haven't yet tried placeing any orders until last nite.
I must admit, I do like the set-it-and-forget nature of this style; it takes out alot of guess work out of trades. If they get hit fine, if not, fine too.
Probably the most difficult aspect of this, is it has to be executed continually, even with drawdowns.
My normal stop is 100 pips, placeing a 191 pip stop is quite different for me.
Thanks for the effort you put into this, I'm learning about 4 different Forex methods, and at times my brain feels like toast.
I really enjoyed the presentation you did on Larry Jacob's DVD.

Great job Joel!

Thanks,
Jxxx Mxxxxxx

--And some comments about Nassim Taleb's books, "required" reading for traders---

Hi Joel,

I finished my second re-read of "Fooled by Randomness" by Mr.Taleb and been half way through his "Black Swan" book.

Frankly, I am still digesting what I've read. It seems that luck and randomness plays a much bigger role in forex trading than most of us are willing to admit. We attribute most of our success to our skills but many times it is just pure luck... Well, it probably takes some time until one is truly ready to accept Mr.Taleb's point.

Being just a very small fish in a forex lake (and influenced by Mr.Taleb), I am able to see your FSP method in a different light now. As I understand it now, every now and then, black swan occurs (or at least a gray one) causing bigger than average moves in the markets. Those who follow simple, robust methods will hit new equity highs if they are patient enough.

Pxxxx

-----

Thanks to MR, JM & P for your comments. I'm sure they'll help others who are also trying to succeed in the markets.

Trading is a journey where everyone starts from a different location. It's great to have someone else mention a landmark that can shorten your trip.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Taxing? - IFCN WK 71 -Thu - Equity: $2,870.23

Yesterday was "Tax Day" for the USA. It was the last day to file our taxes for 2008. And for those who have to pay, the deadline for paying.

Not my favorite day, as I always end up paying in since I'm self-employed. Fortunately, there are a few benefits from being a trader in the USA, tax-wise. Thanks to Ronald Reagan, our taxes are a bit lower when obtaining profits from trading forex and futures than stocks. And we can write off applicable expenses in the course of our occupation.

Another good reason to focus on forex and futures.

Last week there was an anonymous comment (I usually don't answer anonymous posts -- it could have been an oversight on the part of the poster) but the question was appropriate for the season.

It was as follows:

How do you account for the impact of TAXES on your lovely equity curve? Seems that would put a serious dent in the CAGR plans in fact...?

My reply, in case you didn't read it:

Very good question---

Everyone has a different tax situation. If this trading account was the only income you had, very likely you would not have any taxes to pay. Standard deductions would have you paying very little or nothing.

Some of you trading forex are in other countries with varying tax situations - some taxed, others with no tax whatsoever.

In the USA, some trade forex from a Roth IRA, where there are no taxes to pay from the gains.

I've already paid taxes on the Challenge account's increase last year. I will probably continue paying the taxes from profits from my other trading operations until the equity gets over $50K.

I have a pretty good idea (based on my plans for increasing the account) that a majority of the profits will come near the end of the "challenge" and most of the taxable gains will be paid from the completed total.

JR

We have some decent trades this week.

The Usd/Jpy from last week has turned decidedly profitable. The Gbp/Usd was profitable out of the gate and has turned into a trend week.

The Usd/Chf short was good earlier, now backing up a little, with lackluster results so far in the Eur/Usd.

The short Gbp/Jpy trade from last week got stopped out when the long FSP trade from this week triggered, with less than half of it's original risk of 526 pips.

And silver (XAG) picked up a little. I'll be happier when it stays above $14. Then a bigger move should be on it's way.

All in all, a decent week. The trades follow:

FirstStrikePlus positions from last week:
*usd/jpy: Short @ 99.51, stop 101.12. Currently profitable.
*gbp/jpy: Short @ 146.66, stopped at 149.15 for 249 pip loss (less than ½ of original risk)

This week's executed FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3314, stop 1.3123.
• gbp/jpy: Long @ 149.15, stopped at 146.83 for 232 pip loss.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4783, stop 1.4632.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.1454, stop 1.1601.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
-----
Trading account equity: $ 2,136.23
Silver position equity: $ 744.00
(Current XAG price: $12.81 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $ 2,870.23

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Apr. 6 – Apr. 13 Update - IFCN WK 71 - Mon- $2,762.05

There were no OneNightStand trades on Friday, Apr. 10. Friday was a holiday in the USA and some places in Europe. The forex markets were open, but with slightly higher bid/ask spreads than usual. Still, there were no trades executed, of which I was glad. Funny things (usually not good) can happen on quasi-holiday trading.

On Monday April 13, 2009 at 00:00 AM CST I exited my short Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd, and long Usd/Chf positions from the week's FSP trades. The trade prices are shown below.

Week of April 6, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:

• eur/usd: Short @ 1.3441, exited at 1.3171 for 270 pips profit.
• gbp/jpy: Short @146.66, stop 149.15.
• gbp/usd: Short @1.4712, exited at 1.4666 for 46 pips profit.
• usd/chf: Long @1.1339, exited at 1.1565 for 226 pips profit.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 99.51, stop 101.12.

-----
OneNightStand trades executed Friday, April 10, 2009:
-None-

Trading account equity: $ 2,130.05
Gain from previous week: $ 86.93

Silver position equity: $ 632.00
(Current XAG price: $12.53 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $ 2,762.05

It is nice to see that we had a small but definite gain from the forex trading side, and virtually unchanged equity position from the XAG (silver) side. Perhaps silver is taking a rest before beginning a move back above $13.00.

The market is setting up perfectly for some bigger moves this week. It is mostly a matter of putting in the orders. AND-- putting on the appropriate position sizes.

I'm looking forward to this week.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Corrective Week! Thu - Apr. 9, 2009 - Equity $2,733.35

It is a short week due to the Easter/Passover religious holidays. Nevertheless, the FSP trades triggered definitely.

Despite the likelihood of this week's trades being corrective in nature, they've been profitable as a group.

This week's FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Short @ 1.3441, stop 1.3602.
• gbp/jpy: Short @146.66, stop 151.92.
• gbp/usd: Short @1.4712, stop 1.5007.
• usd/chf: Long @1.1339, stop 1.1238.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 99.51, stop 101.28.

XAG price: $12.35

Total Equity: $2,733.35

I just take the trades even if they turn out to be corrections. FirstStrike and ONS have decent edges per trade despite the overall trend.

There is a holiday this Friday in the US, but as we know, the rest of the world is still able to trade. I am still going to put in OneNightStand trades, even though a couple of the markets (like Gbp/Jpy and Gbp/Usd) have larger than normal spreads. The wider spreads are telling you, "There is greater-than-average risk in the market!"

It is always advisable to be cautious when trading on holidays. It is completely okay to trade half size or smaller to contain potential risks.

Have a good holiday weekend.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

First One Way, Then the Other! - IFCN WK 70 - Tue- Equity: $ 2,673.65

The First-Profitable-Open exit sure worked great this week.

We had quite strong moves last week, many of which we were able to take advantage of.

Fortunately, the profits were taken at the open of the Monday, with little follow-through. After exiting, the markets all reversed course like they hit an anvil.

Everywhere you turn, you are hearing the R or D words-- recession and depression. I've said it before, but it bears repeating-- if we are going into a deep recession or depression, it is the most highly advertised one in history.

It is very difficult to imagine that with all the doom-saying out there, that people who feel threatened haven't already acted. Whether that means eliminating whatever assets they felt vulnerable about or ...?

Time will definitely tell, but it is likely we will benefit because we act so quickly as major capital flows force us into our trades.

For the last two days we've been experiencing sharp set-backs in the main currencies vs. the dollar. Most of the news sources trumpet the idea that the Euro, Sterling, Swissy and others will continue tumbling, with the dollar regaining prominence because of derivative market risks being too high.

Whether or not that will be the case, we got entered into five mostly profitable, FirstStrikePlus trades.

While the XAG still is pretty weak, it is encouraging to be getting some decent (at the moment) trades.

This week's FirststrikePlus current trades:

• eur/usd: Short @ 1.3441, stop 1.3602.
• gbp/jpy: Short @146.66, stop 151.92.
• gbp/usd: Short @1.4712, stop 1.5007.
• usd/chf: Long @1.1339, stop 1.1238.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 99.51, stop 101.28.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
-----
Trading account equity: $ 2,125.65
Silver position equity: $ 548.00
(Current XAG price: $12.32 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $ 2,673.65

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Mar. 30 – Apr. 6 Update - IFCN WK 70 - Mon- Equity: $ 2,683.12

Quite a challenging week!

A number of readers contacted me to tell me about your great performance last week because you took the long Gbp/Jpy and Usd/Jpy trades. I'm sure you did very well. The Gbp/Jpy especially. Too bad the Challenge account didn't get them too.

Still, the currency trades we did have were quite successful.

On Monday April 6, 2009 at 00:00 AM CST we exited our long Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd and short Usd/Chf from the previous week FirstStrikePlus trades. Also, we exited our two remaining OneNightStand trades, the long Gbp/Usd and Usd/Jpy. The trade prices are shown below.

Week of March 30, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3375, exited at 1.3562 for 187 pips profit
• gbp/jpy: Short @ 136.47, stopped 138.90 for 242 pip loss.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4385, exited at 1.4935 for 550 pips profit
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.1372, exited at 1.1263 for 109 pips profit
• usd/jpy: Short @ 96.21, stopped at 97.50 for 129 pip loss.

-----
OneNightStand trades executed Friday, April 3, 2009 – exited Monday morning
*Long gbp/jpy @ 147.88, stopped at 146.88 for 100 pip loss.
*Long gbp/usd@ 1.4783. Exited at 1.4935 for 152 pips profit
*Long usd/jpy@ 100.19. Exited at 100.84 for 65 pips profit

Trading account equity: $ 2,043.12
Gain from previous week: $ 154.18

Silver position equity: $ 640.00
(Current XAG price: $12.55 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $ 2,683.12

This week turned out better than I thought it would considering the serious drop in XAG (silver) prices. It no doubt will recover on its own timetable. In the meantime, it sure dragged down the total equity.

When silver eventually rallies back up, the additional profits FSP and ONS have been adding to the account will be pretty obvious.

Right now though, it seems like we are robbing Peter to pay Paul.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Drawdown Deepens! -IFCN WK 69- Fri- Equity: $2,670.62

After Friday's close, I realized that I held an additional trade that I shouldn't have.

My FSP trade of short usd/chf from 1.1372 with a stop at 1.1497-- should have been stopped out when the price rallied up to 1.1506 on Wednesday April 1st. It turns out that I read my stop order wrong and placed it 20 pips higher than I should have. Of course, this mistake resulted in a missed loss, and potentially a profitable trade for Monday's open. In my experiences, mistakes usually cause larger losses. This time it seems to have benefited me. Even so, this has been a tough week.

Also, we had three OneNightStand trades executed. They were all long entries:
gbp/jpy, gbp/usd, usd/jpy. The gbp/jpy got tagged for a 100 pip loss and the other two (not stopped out) await Monday morning's open for their exits.

A point of note: This was one of those weeks where the Gbp/Jpy gave us grief. If we had not gotten elected on the short side at virtually the low of the week, the FSP long entry would have given us another 850 pips so far- and a welcome $100 at my current account size. Then, the ONS Gbp/Jpy stop-out on Friday at the low of the day just before recovery to closing at the high of the week...

I got a few emails from readers asking if I thought others (read: funds) were following our trades just to stop us out.

I doubt it. I have seen the markets doing many things over the years, and close calls happen all the time, for us and against us. Still, I don't enjoy getting my stops hit and then the market going merrily in the direction I was positioned. It can be hard to not take it personal even if it is part of the reality of trading.

The week's FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3375, stop 1.3184.
• gbp/jpy: Short @ 136.47, stopped 138.90 for 242 pip loss.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4385, stop 1.4179.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.1372, stop 1.1497.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 96.21, stopped at 97.50 for 129 pip loss.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
OneNightStand trades executed Friday, April 3, 2009
*Long gbp/jpy @ 147.88, stopped at 146.88 for 100 pip loss.
*Long gbp/usd@ 1.4783. Exiting Monday, 00:00 CST.
*Long usd/jpy@ 100.19. Exiting Monday, 00:00 CST.

Trading account equity: $1,942.62

Silver position equity: $ 728.00
(Current XAG price: $12.77 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $2,670.62

As the markets would have it, we gained nicely on our FirstStrikePlus and OneNightStand trades as a group, yet lost again in the XAG section of the account. When silver helps the account it can be amazing. When it hurts the equity, it is equally amazing.

We'll see how the markets work out Monday where we should be exiting most, if not all of the currency trades.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

March 23 - 30 update -IFCN WK 69 - Mon- Equity: $2,836.94

On Monday March 30, 2009 at 00:00 AM CST we exited FSP trades from the previous week's entries: short the Eur/Usd and long the Usd/Chf. The total equity below is from 00:00 AM- Monday morning.

Shortly after the open the Usd/Jpy long trade got stopped out at 96.21, the short entry price for the new week's FSP trade.

Week of March 23, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:

• gbp/jpy: Long @ 140.94, stopped out at 138.90 for 204 pip loss
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4727, stopped out at 1.4426 for 301 pip loss.
• usd/jpy: Long @ 97.77. Trade exited 3/30/09 at 96.21 for loss of 156 pips
• eur/usd: Short @ 1.3405, exited at 1.3232 for 173 pip profit.
• usd/chf: Long @ 1.1455, exited at 1.1466 for 11 pip profit.

-----
OneNightStand trades for Friday, March 27, 2009
-None-

Trading account equity: $1,888.94
Loss from previous week: $ 43.20

Silver position equity: $ 948.00
(Current XAG price: $13.32 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $2,836.94

Losing on both the FSP trades and equity from XAG caused a sizable drop in total equity. That is what drawdowns are made of. We can expect more of the same since we've had such large increases in previous weeks.

We soldier on.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Vegas Workshop Rocked! -IFCN WK 69 - Mon- Mar. 30, 2009

Hi all--

The London Squeeze workshop in Las Vegas March 28th went off extremely well. The only hitch was they switched our conference room at the last minute. Perhaps it was a security thing.

The synergy of the participants couldn't have been better. I thoroughly enjoyed meeting and speaking with every one. We had bright attendees from around the world and the U.S. All had the desire to be the best professional traders possible and improve the skills necessary to consistently execute despite drawdowns and world changes.

In this difficult profession, there is a tremendous benefit in meeting and discussing trading nuances with your peers face-to-face. An additional benefit is the understanding it provides to your mental game to meet others who have successfully learned to cope with trading issues similarly or differently than yourself.

I was great for me to put a face to a number of the intelligent followers of this site and get valuable feedback about the needs of new but serious forex traders.

In the future we will likely hear some of the attendees' personal observations.

I'm returning to Minneapolis in a few days.

This morning's open allowed us to exit profitably the short Eur/Usd and long Usd/Chf FirstStrikePlus trades from last week.

So far: I've placed my orders for this week; already filled on the short Gbp/Jpy FSP trade, filled and stopped out on the short Usd/Jpy FSP trade.

When I return home I will do last week's recap and continue with the results of trading this week.

So far, it looks like a fickle start. That happens.

Best of wishes to you all.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Patience! -IFCN WK 68 - Thu- Equity: $2,984.95

Patience is a large part of trading.

Losers always feel that they are missing something and feel the need to continually trade. When you've traded a lot and know how important it is to wait until “your” trade shows up, it is because you appreciate well how patience and profitable trading go hand-in-hand.

Having patience helps this week.

Even though we took a loss on our Gbp/Usd trade, we still don't have FirstStrikePlus Eur/Usd or Usd/Chf trades triggered. Maybe we'll get a doubled position with OneNightStand trades being elected too. I've seen stranger things.

-----

The week's FirstStrikePlus trades:

• gbp/jpy: Long @ 140.94, stop 138.90. Trade in progress.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4727, stopped out at 1.4426 for a 301 pip loss.
• usd/jpy: Long @ 97.77, stop 95.60. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,936.95

Silver position equity: $1,048.00
(Current XAG price: $13.57 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $2,984.95

I will go back to patience mode.

An interesting point- if we don't get any moves out of the euro or swiss franc this week, maybe next week could be huge-- because our volatility is so low this week and we would then have large position size.

I''m posting this from my room in Las Vegas, with millions in cash being gambled a 100 feet from me downstairs. Wagered largely by individuals without a clue or an edge.

Considering that many (perhaps most) who engage the markets are little different than the drunken masses below me-- one can take comfort that it isn't much more difficult to separate capital in trading than it is for the casino to run its crap table. All it takes is patience to wait for “your” trades.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

So Far, a Week of Rest! -IFCN WK 68 - Wed- Equity: $3,004.79

Relative rest, that is.

As I am writing this, we got some chaotic action in the currencies and metals.

An unexpected change in home sales and other unexpected revisions in reports made previously scared more people into other currencies-not-the-dollar. Silver, which just an hour before dropped back to touch 13.00 -- suddenly rocketed more than 60 cents/ounce.

A lot of excitement in these markets.

I'm glad we have ways to get aboard and stay aboard.

-----
I am looking forward to the London Squeeze workshop being held in Las Vegas, Nevada this Saturday.

It promises to be a great time, with attendees from more than 5 countries around the globe.

With the recent volatility in forex, trading a daily volatility breakout method in addition to FirstStrikePlus and ONS has been valuable for equity curve smoothing. Not to mention having additional risk-adjusted opportunities when the market moves like it did this morning.

-----

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• gbp/jpy: Long @ 140.94, stop 138.90. Trade in progress.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4727, stop 1.4426. Trade in progress.
• usd/jpy: Long @ 97.77, stop 95.60. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,960.79

Silver position equity: $1,044.00
(Current XAG price: $13.56 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $3,004.79

It isn't surprising to have a choppy week after a startling trend week. We'll stay aboard and keep watching.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Thanks to Weak Dollar- New Equity Highs! -IFCN WK 68 - Mon- Equity: $3,032.14

Despite some loss trades last week this Monday's exiting profits from the Eur/Usd, Usd/Chf, and Usd/Jpy offset them handily since the position sizes exited were generous due to low volatility conditions prior to entry.

It is nice when trades work out well.

It is also astounding to me, even after trading these types of methods for decades- how quickly one can go from a burgeoning drawdown to new equity highs so quickly. On Tuesday of last week we had a current equity of $2,338 and in less than a week we were up 29% from there.

Then again, it is rare that we get Fed actions as pronounced as we experienced Wednesday of last week.

I'm always grateful when things work out, but I never feel lucky. It is too easy to lose in this business.

Make a trading mistake at the wrong time, be slow about putting in your orders, get sloppy about position sizing..., hundreds of little things done poorly could drastically affect returns.

For example, if I was unduly worried about the drawdown the account was in a week ago and didn't place full size positions on the winning Eur/Usd, Usd/Chf, and Usd/Jpy trades, the results by Monday's open would not have been as substantial. Same goes with the XAG addition at $12.00. That helped tremendously in the IFCN total equity.

Some would say that we were lucky. Well, maybe it would be for others, but for those who trade like us-- it is just taking care of business, and therefore, business is good sometimes.

Week of March 16, 2009---FirststrikePlus trade executions:
*gbp/jpy Short @ 136.71, stopped at 139.09 for 238 pip loss.
*gbp/usd Short @ 1.3993, stopped at 1.4132. for 139 pip loss.
*positions held before March 16th open.

• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stopped at 1.3980 for 191 pip loss.
• gbp/jpy: Short @ 135.48, stopped at 138.52 for 304 pip loss.
• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, exited at 1.3661 for 641 pip profit.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.1713, exited at 1.1231 for 482 pip profit.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 97.16, exited at 96.14 for 102 pip profit.

-----
OneNightStand trades for Friday, March 20, 2009
-None-

Trading account equity: $1,932.14
Gain from previous week: $ 181.70

Silver position equity: $1,100.00
(Current XAG price: $13.70 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $3,032.14

We probably won't have as fantastic of a week for a while, but I always enjoy a sharp lift like this one. The rest of you who executed the trades are no doubt happy you did.

I have a quick email sent the other day:

Hi Joel,

Thank you for your efforts to drag us into success. :-)
I will go for it!

One question.
Why do you prefer owning physical gold instead of
riding the trend with Oanda's spot gold or with
futures?
Are you afraid of there may be times when we
cannot have access to our funds in the banks?
If the above is true then a safe in a bank is not
an option either to store physical gold.
So take the gold home with you?

Thanks for your help. -J-

-----
My answer is below:

Gold is ok.

Silver is better. Greater upside potential.

You are basically correct about storing your precious metals in banks.
There are too many historical precedents about metal being absconded with,
for various reasons, non of which benefit the precious metal holder.

Keep it safe somewhere else. Your creativity will likely find a great
place to protect your precious metal.

Joel

Thanks for the input. Have a good week.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Welcome Trend Week! -IFCN Wk 67 - Friday, March 20, 2009

This week was indeed a solid trend week.

Friday we finally got stopped out of the short Gbp/Jpy entered early in the week. I never liked that trade, and figured that it had 90% odds of getting stopped out when I took it. It was.

As a side note it was good for us this week that we are in the custom of taking just the first FSP trade per pair. After the long Gbp/Usd trade got elected at 1.4171 and subsequently got stopped out, the week's short trade at 1.3885 would have been triggered and then stopped out for a second loss. But if you had taken the buy at 1.4171 again for a third trade, by Friday's close you'd be up about 265 pips on the final trade, off-setting a lot of the losses previously incurred.

As you can imagine, the important thing is remaining consistent, trade YOUR plan and deviate only when some incredibly obvious bus is about to run you over. Which doesn't happen that often.

But, that all being said – great results have been had with our remaining three forex pairs and, of course, our enhanced silver position.

There were no OneNightStand trades on Friday, not that it didn't get pretty close on the Eur/Usd and Usd/Chf.

This kind of week makes you glad that you execute as you know you should, despite the multiple losses that can take place over weeks in between the large profits. Another reason why “many are called, few are chosen”, for this business.

I got a couple of very interesting emails recently which may be very useful for others of you who are trying to improve your trading acumen.

-----
Hey Joel,

I have now been following your blog for a full year now and I have learned a lot about trading from you. Since following your blog, I am up 213% on my account. It has been hard to learn the discipline required, but I have taken every trade the systems required. I really appreaciate what you have done for me!

Thanks, Bxxxx Pxxxxx

*********************

Hi Joel!

It is unbelievable, many thanks for your help!
Your knowledge and your help is the best I ever had since I trade Forex.
I trade FSP every week, sometimes with a bigger risk, sometimes with a smaller risk, it depends of the market situation.
I've traded around 8 years, and since around 2 years I haven't lost money; ok, I earned a little bit from my trading. But I can forget everything I did before. I thank you sooooooo much for helping me to have success in Forex trading.
I also bought 300 units silver at around 9.0000,-- , BUT the panic came :-) and I sold around 150 units.............. I know, that was not so good!
But I bought again at the Dips an have now again 490 units, and I don't give it back!!!!!!!!
My account is too small to trade full time now, but with your help I hope to become a full time trader as soon as possible, and I am very thankful for every help I get from your newsletter.
I wish you a nice weekend.
Greetings from ice cold Austria (30 cm snow today)!

Exxxxx

-----

Thanks for the kind emails. I'm glad you are taking the trades consistently. Even if you trade very small size at the beginning, (which is one of the great things about Oanda) the regimen of correct trading does great benefit for your future success. Even if the method you were trading was just break-even on results, accurate execution would provide you tremendous benefits to carry over to a time when you obtain a superior method. Execute, execute, execute is the same foundation of truth for trading that “location, location, location” is to real estate investing.

It is only difficult at the beginning. It definitely gets easier when you've done it every day for at least a year. Like most things of value, it needs to become a habit.

Joel Rensink
-----
Loss trades this week:

• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stopped at 1.3980 for 191 pip loss.
• gbp/jpy: Short @ 135.48, stopped at 138.52 for 304 pip loss.

The week's remaining FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.1713, stop 1.1928. Trade in progress.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 97.16, stop 98.57. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)

Week's recap on Monday morning.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Milestone Equity High- 500% Increase! -IFCN Wk 67 - Thu- Equity: $3,001.25

We had continued good success today with the dollar falling even more against every major currency and silver and gold.

Oil jumped past $51/barrel. The financial world is beginning to realize, as we have for many months-- that the greatest inflationary environment in human history is being unleashed.

Just wait until the hedge funds get some money passed back to them.

The dollar fell for a second straight session and the Eur/Usd easily cleared $1.3700 as traders finally see that massive purchases of U.S. Treasury debt can only do one thing – dilute the world's reserve currency to historic lows.

Recommendation:
Buy silver. The actual physical metal, and take personal possession. Now! (If you haven't read the post about $3.00 Silver Here Again.... click this link)

If you are not going to buy it now, when were you planning on doing it? When it is $30/oz. and you have even less capital available?
-----

FirstStrikePlus is performing very well this week. Despite the Gbp/Usd loss early in the week, at least 3 of the trades are making great strides, the long Eur/Usd, short Usd/Chf, and short Usd/Jpy.

The beauty of FSP is when you have a trend week you can profit on the extreme directional moves, but if you get stopped out of a position it is for a relatively small fixed amount. The exact definition of trend trading in a microcosm.

The week's remaining FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
• gbp/jpy: Short @ 135.48, stop 138.54. Trade in progress.
• usd/chf: Short @ 1.1713, stop 1.1928. Trade in progress.
• usd/jpy: Short @ 97.16, stop 98.57. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,945.25

Silver position equity: $1,056.00
(Current XAG price: $13.59 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $3,001.25

So we've hit a new landmark high, exceeding $3,000.00 for the first time on a post. That is more than a 500% return in the last 67 weeks, or 389% annualized. So far the Challenge account is definitely exceeding my intended 50 – 75% returns by a large margin.

Maybe we are overperforming. Maybe we aren't. Extreme times can create extreme profits - if you actually take the trades.

The week isn't over yet, though. We could have some reaction after the sharp moves of the last few days.

If we have any OneNightStand trades for Friday, it will almost certainly be a long Eur/Usd or Gbp/Jpy. The other pairs are way out of range, and if they were elected would be low probability performers.

See you tomorrow!

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Up 13% in a Day! Thanks Ben! -IFCN WK 67 - Thu- Equity: $2,648.49

Wow!

Gold – sharply higher
Silver – sharply higher
Treasury bonds – sharply higher
Stocks – sharply higher
Currencies – sharply higher

See the important trend change on the daily Eur/Usd chart. Notice the parallel trendlines crossed.

Tuesday I mentioned that there was “Quite a showdown situation building.” and that “Maybe something spectacular will happen later in the week.” I'm glad it did.

Even I was surprised by the scope of the Fed's announcement. Not by the actions themselves, but by making it so completely clear that they will weaken the dollar by any means they have at their disposal and that no one is going to be able to keep up. That my good traders is a throw-down of a gauntlet .

In a move that some have referred to as greater in importance than the Plaza Accord (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord), the Fed told everyone in terms impossible to ignore..., they “guarantee” to the weaken the Dollar.

I'm just amazed at how many in the financial world haven't been listening to Bernanke and his constant prose (and actions) that he is going to keep things going if he has to drop money from helicopters. With the unlimited powers bestowed on him by whomever you can count on him pushing the big red cash button anytime he feels the vapors.

Interestingly, I had forgotten that an announcement was to be made Wednesday afternoon. (CST)

3 minutes before the announcement I calmly bought a particularly large add of Eur/Usd at 1.3109 with a 10 pip stop. (Golden Pip Method) God only knows what my fill would have been on the stop if it had been elected with an equally intense surprise move downward!

All of a sudden I saw the Euro streaking up the 1 minute chart like a emergency signal flare. I thought my data feed had misfired and was giving me faulty data. I checked the Usd/Chf and gold and silver and sure enough- something huge was underway.

I speed-dialed my trading accomplice in Regina, Sask. with, “What the hell just happened?” As I said it, I remembered that there was a 2 day Fed meeting this week and was confirmed when my buddy's news feed was spewing the details of the news release.

It was amazing to see again..., how powerful one's beliefs of what is really going on in the markets can make or break you. Having a plan of action based on reality, letting the markets own action dictate your positions is the only prudent one. It is much more effective than taking clues from the socialist-leaning homilies of the non-traders at CNN.

To complete the story of my Eur/Usd trade mentioned above, I exited 355 points higher an hour later. Not bad for a 10 pip risk. Needless to say, this was a particularly profitable day, only possible because market action tends to anticipate capital flow.

If a trader, because of some fundamental reason, steadfastly believed that the dollar is going to remain strong indefinitely and bet accordingly in the markets-- he could lose an unlimited amount of money if this peak in the dollar remains the high for the next few years. Having positions based on real, immediate capital flows enables you to be right or get right as quickly as the market moves.

FirstStrikePlus got us into the last 3 positions this week and overall the look very good. If the Euro and Swiss franc keep gaining on the dollar there could be much greater profits over the coming months.

Tuesday's action gave the Challenge account another bonus. Before the Fed announcement I had an XAG resting buy order for 100 units @ 12.00 which also got filled before the Fed announcement. So I have a total position size of 400 units of XAG with an average price of $10.95. With the snapback in XAG (silver) the addition has helped the XAG portion of the Challenge account.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
gbp/jpy: Short @ 135.48, stop 138.54. Trade in progress.
gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stopped at 1.3980 for 191 pip loss.
usd/chf: Short @ 1.1713, stop 1.1928. Trade in progress.
usd/jpy: Short @ 97.16, stop 98.57. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,892.49

Silver position equity: $756.00
(Current XAG price: $12.84 – 400 unit position average: $10.95)
TOTAL Equity: $2,648.49

It is good to see some decent trades in FirstStrikePlus again. It is one thing to expect moves, but another to actually take the trades.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

Let the Reader Use Discernment! -IFCN WK 67 - Tues- Equity: $2,338.19

There is a truth that gets repeated just often enough for you to remember hearing it before, but too quickly forgotten when the latest episode of your life slaps you into temporary submission..., that is- “those who refuse to remember the past are condemned to repeat it”.

It would be best if an understanding of history was regarded as a crucial talisman against catastrophe by those who affect the present and future lives of so many others around them. As we can observe in just the last year's financial exposés, few of the offenders ever considered what financial mayhems occurred before them, except perhaps as a guide to fleecing their prey more effectively before they got caught.

There are too many failed financial schemes in the past to recount, most of the best itemized and dramatized well in Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds. The famous tome is a wealth of history of popular follies by author Charles Mackay, first published in 1841. I recommend that any person wishing to profit from markets- especially in these unique times- immediately obtain the book and read it straightaway. A one-time reading of the Tulip Mania account - which occurred a mere 370 years ago - is worth the price of the book. You will refer to it many times over the years to reassure yourself that you aren't mad, the world likely is.

Something a few of us are doing more than we will readily admit to.

One of my favorite personages, Thomas Jefferson, drew from his lifelong study of history, theory and practice to become the main author of the Declaration of Independence, and become the desperately needed 3rd President of the United States. He was the original “reluctant hero”, who had no desire to govern men because of the lack of appreciation received when the governing is truly fair.

Finance is not a discovery of the last 20 years. Jefferson understood that countries like ours are created and maintained primarily for profit, not to make all personal ills right. When they stop being run for profit, the safety and security of the country declines. Eventually even a great country will be brought to ruin if the inmates (or those who should be) are allowed to make the rules and make YOU pay for their liberty at the expense of your own.

Jefferson's thoughts on banking apply only too well today, and our downfall is assured if his warning is disregarded:

“I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs. “

I know that if he was aware of what was transpiring in our country today, he'd be spinning in his grave.

A final quote from our 3rd President:

...Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government...it is their Right, it is their Duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future Security.
Thomas Jefferson – The Declaration of Independence

-----
I had one FirstStrikePlus trade get stopped out, the Gbp/Usd. Meanwhile, the Eur/Usd is still holding, the Usd/Chf is sagging and the Japanese Yen affected pairs are making narrow ranges.

Quite a showdown situation building.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stopped at 1.3980 for 191 pip loss.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,717.19

Silver position equity: $621.00
(Current XAG price: $12.67 – 300 unit position average: $10.60)
TOTAL Equity: $2,338.19

The recent abrupt silver swings toy with the total equity, but the likelihood of abrupt higher prices in the near future tempers too much concern.

It is interesting that the first 2 days of this week have been burned through and we only have had two entries. Maybe something spectacular will happen later in the week.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

The Dollar is Losing its Grip! -IFCN WK 67 – Monday- Equity: $2,413.69

This morning we got some early strength in the Pound and Euro triggering long FirstStrikePlus trades, carry-over strength in the Gbp/Jpy almost triggered a long position there also.

At today's open I exited my elective long eur/usd trade from last week for a 155 pip profit. There were no OneNightStand trades entered on Friday to be exited this morning.

In the last four trading sessions we have started to see some grudging strength develop, which is actually a better indication of a currency turn-around than a quick, sharp move. That kind of action would tend to indicate a simple reaction.

Nevertheless, the sterling and euro backed off considerably from their highs today. I would have preferred a bit more strength, but the market gives what it gives-- and we work with it.

We came into the week short the gbp/usd and gbp/jpy, but those trades didn't last very long. The trading community focused on comments from Bernanke and some believe that caused the foreign currencies to gain on the dollar. I simply believe that the dollar's strength is grossly overdone and is likely to wane from this area.

Week's beginning equity at Monday's open: $2,485.44 w/XAG =13.05

This morning's action:
*Long eur/usd @ 1.2744 exited this morning's open at 1.2899 for 155 pip profit.
*Short gbp/jpy @ 136.71, stopped at 139.09 for 238 pip loss.
*Short gbp/usd @ 1.3993, stopped at 1.4132. for 139 pip loss.

-----

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:

• eur/usd: Long @ 1.3020, stop 1.2859. Trade in progress.
• gbp/usd: Long @ 1.4171, stop 1.3980. Trade in progress.

FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit)
Trading account equity: $1,711.69

Silver position equity: $702.00
(Current XAG price: $12.94 – 300 unit position average: $10.60)
TOTAL Equity: $2,413.69

This should be an interesting week.

What markets actually do when there is new potential open to them is extremely revealing for the future.

Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!