Sunday, February 15, 2009

Week starting Feb. 9, 2009 - IFCN Wk 62 –Mon- Equity: $2,695.01

Last week saw a lot of red ink in the FirstStrikePlus trades and even the lone ONS trade taken in the Usd/Chf.

The only bright spot was, again; the XAG (silver) which ran up so much that we still had a new equity high by Monday morning, Feb. 9.

How long can this continue? Amazingly long, obviously.

As most of you know, I am quite bullish silver and silver derivatives. I have every belief that silver will outperform gold, oil, stocks, and almost every possible currency in the next five years. Nevertheless, even a strong market has corrections.

There is a possibility that we may get a noticeable correction in silver (XAG) and gold (XAU) in the last couple of weeks of February. If we don't, we could have a very serious rise ahead. (I got this info from personal long term cycle work, via W.D. Gann)

I know there haven't been many updates from me over the past week(s). It is not my style to write just to keep myself entertained, and the markets have not been very entertaining.

Actually, they've been a lot of work. I actively trade 20 futures markets and 5 currencies, (forex and futures) I've more than held my own over the last few months, but not without the market getting in quite a few licks in the meantime.

I would rather not get into how many times coffee futures trades and crude oil trades have gone from incredible profits to amazing losses overnight.

Such is the life of an “alpha” derivatives trader. Only by taking every one of “my” trades as they show up is it possible to extract the profits from inevitable significant moves that make this a business; instead of the gambling exercise most neophytes see it. (and treat it)

As of Monday, February 9, 00:00 CST – here is the status of the trades from the previous week:

Week of February 2, 2009---FirststrikePlus trades
  • gbp/usd: Short @ 1.4125, stopped at 1.4506 for 381 pip loss.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2894, stop 1.2673. Still in play-profitable
  • gbp/jpy: Short @ 126.13, stopped at 130.27 for 414 pip loss.
  • usd/chf: Short from 1.1450, stopped at 1.1674 for 224 pip loss.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.1541, stopped at 1.1680 for 139 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Long @ 90.09, stopped at 88.97 for 193 pip loss.
  • usd/jpy: Short @ 88.97, stopped at 89.90 for 93 pip loss.
OneNightStand trades for Friday, January 30, 2009
*Usd/Chf: long @ 1.1742, stopped at 1.1642 for 100 pip loss.

Trading account equity: $1,955.01
Loss from previous week: $ 92.73

Silver position equity: $ 740.00
(Current XAG price: $13.10 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $2,695.01

It will be interesting to see what the next weeks' action will bring.

Notice! While the Challenge account keeps making new equity highs, even by a little bit each week, but we keep losing in our FirstStrike trades, it tends to indicate that a serious drawdown is possible. Perhaps XAG will have a sizable correction or, perhaps FSP will continue to have numerous losses each week for a while.

One thing is very noticeable: the currency markets, along with most of the other main markets, such as the energies and stock markets-- are in ranges that are chopping every trader out there.

Either way, I will keep putting on the trades. I thought I would mention the possibility of a noticeable correction in equity. I'm sure you've had similar feelings.

Joel Rensink

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