Sunday, January 13, 2008
Week 5 - Fri- Current Equity: $522.80
Hi everyone:
This seemed like a very long week for some reason.
There was certainly volatility in the markets. Much more of it in the non-forex markets, but it had its choppy moves too. Obviously.
I keep hearing from fund traders about the stock market (and the stock futures arm, the indexes) and how violent it has been to the downside. And those of us in the commodity sectors have been guardedly enjoying some upmoves in corn and wheat and beans. And gold and silver. Nothing lasts forever, and that definitely goes double for grain moves. And the metals.
The one thing for sure about market moves, is they always go just a bit farther than you would ever expect.
I'm looking for some great moves in forex pretty soon now.
This last week in the Forex Challenge was virtually the same result as the previous week, just with bigger positional losses, due to placing of larger size after the holiday weeks. I had 5 FirstStrike losses and and the two sells on ONS on Friday were on the same pairs as the previous week with the same results- two stopped out trades on the day of entry. So no ONS exits on Monday morning.
A note about ONS (OneNightStand). We have had two losses on the very same pairs-- two weeks in a row. This can begin to give you a little insight on what is going on in these markets internally. Especially when you know the normal win rate of the system. Maybe the momentum of these pairs to the downside is beginning to subside. Just something to think about.
On to what happened officially this week-
Alpha account trading recap:
Start of week equity: $ 563.75
Completed FirstStrike trades:
EUR/USD: SELL 1.4681, stop 1.4741. -stopped out 60 pips loss
GBP/USD: SELL 1.9657, stop 1.9717. -stopped out 60 pips loss
USD/JPY: BUY 109.49, stop 108.89. -stopped out 60 pips loss
USD/CHF: BUY 1.1147, stop 1.1087. -stopped out 60 pips loss
GBP/JPY: BUY 215.29, stop 214.69. -stopped out 60 pips loss
Total of 300 pips in losses
Total of 0 pips in profits
-----
OneNightStand Exit(s) on 01/07/08 :
-None-
OneNightStand 01/11/08 entries:
Short GBP/JPY @ 213.06, stop 213.61. -stopped out for 55 pip loss
Short GBP/USD @ 1.9540, stop 1.9595. -stopped out for 55 pip loss
Total losses: 110 pips
-----
End of week equity: $ 522.80 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Gain on Week: $ (40.95)(7.5% decrease)
Unrealized P&L: $ 00.00
See you Monday!
Best wishes on your new year!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent.
Wednesday, January 9, 2008
Week 5 - Wed- Current Equity: $534.80
Hi everyone!
I've been getting a lot of phone calls from large futures and forex traders who are not enjoying the choppy trade we've been having.
I can't blame them, as I don't appreciate it much either. The sure thing about it is, when everyone is about ready to take a break from trading, the market seems to clear up and starts moving directionally again.
Just another example of the perversity of the markets.
I am still long USD/CHF. We'll wait it out.
There are a couple of serious reports to be made in the markets in the next few days. Maybe that'll liven up the rest of the week.
I was asked by a reader about news trading and news sources. For those who don't have a good source of Forex news,try: www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Forex Factory is a very good forex site and gives you an idea of how serious the news reports are by a color code system. Some who have tried to make money by trading the news reports have done ok, most have failed.
Why?
Some of the fastest "guns" in the world are trading news with the fastest and best equipment available-- microseconds count -- and will leave very little extra money available for neophytes. The worst thing that usually happens is someone hears about the "great" opportunities trading the Non Farm Payroll and similar reports, takes 3 or 4 consecutive seemingly "sure-thing" trades-- and after ballooning his positions -- gets decimated.
If that kind of trading interests you, do a lot of research before committing much capital to it. Successful news trading is doable, but you need a precise game plan you will follow unerringly. Our competition follows one.
Until tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent.
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Week 5 - Tues- Current Equity: $533.10
Hi fellow forex traders:
The market is still trying to digest what Friday's employment numbers really mean for the world, and what is going on with the pre-election posturing by Hillary and Obama. Obama is good for the stability of the market and Hillary is not good for it.
My view of course, but I've tended to be right in the past on these issues.
It is interesting to hear what the "big" talking heads have to say about the economy and near term outlook. Even though we have to trade technically, knowing a bit about the arena you are playing in gives you some depth.
Philadelphia Fed's Plosser said today that he doesn't have a problem with additonal rate cuts. But he isn't sure if he would promote the idea either. (I love the way these guys really take a stand!) He mentioned that he thought the markets in general showed enough support last week to be encouraging. But he's also concerned that inflation-- that word that they never would admit even existed anymore-- is becoming broad-based.
Just look at the price action of grains, silver and gold, and oil. That is very broad based.
Our US Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson said today that he personally expects the US economy to grow somewhat steadily from here on. I agree. Cheap dollars come back to this country much more quickly because the other countries fear that the dollars may be worth even less if they hold them too long. Those actions actually encourage a good economy here in the USA.
There are two days gone in the week and I've been stopped out of 4 of my 5 pairs, for 60 pips each loss. The only pair I'm still alive in is long the USD/CHF from 1.1147, with a stop @ 1.1087. It's been chopping around like the rest but hasn't hit my stop yet. Give it time, and it probably will.
I actually like it when the market stops me out quickly, early in the week on a currency. That action, if continued- spells TREND. Markets that trend can take off at the beginning of the week and charge on all week. They are where we get our money.
We get most of our money from about 2% - 3% of our trades. The sooner I know that the big move is not going to happen this week, I can watch dispassionately and get further information about the strength and weakness in the various pairs. It beats having the feeling that you are going to miss something if you aren't watching the market every second. That puts you in an early grave or actually fatigues you so much that you may not execute when you should.
See you tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent.
The market is still trying to digest what Friday's employment numbers really mean for the world, and what is going on with the pre-election posturing by Hillary and Obama. Obama is good for the stability of the market and Hillary is not good for it.
My view of course, but I've tended to be right in the past on these issues.
It is interesting to hear what the "big" talking heads have to say about the economy and near term outlook. Even though we have to trade technically, knowing a bit about the arena you are playing in gives you some depth.
Philadelphia Fed's Plosser said today that he doesn't have a problem with additonal rate cuts. But he isn't sure if he would promote the idea either. (I love the way these guys really take a stand!) He mentioned that he thought the markets in general showed enough support last week to be encouraging. But he's also concerned that inflation-- that word that they never would admit even existed anymore-- is becoming broad-based.
Just look at the price action of grains, silver and gold, and oil. That is very broad based.
Our US Treasury Secretary, Henry Paulson said today that he personally expects the US economy to grow somewhat steadily from here on. I agree. Cheap dollars come back to this country much more quickly because the other countries fear that the dollars may be worth even less if they hold them too long. Those actions actually encourage a good economy here in the USA.
There are two days gone in the week and I've been stopped out of 4 of my 5 pairs, for 60 pips each loss. The only pair I'm still alive in is long the USD/CHF from 1.1147, with a stop @ 1.1087. It's been chopping around like the rest but hasn't hit my stop yet. Give it time, and it probably will.
I actually like it when the market stops me out quickly, early in the week on a currency. That action, if continued- spells TREND. Markets that trend can take off at the beginning of the week and charge on all week. They are where we get our money.
We get most of our money from about 2% - 3% of our trades. The sooner I know that the big move is not going to happen this week, I can watch dispassionately and get further information about the strength and weakness in the various pairs. It beats having the feeling that you are going to miss something if you aren't watching the market every second. That puts you in an early grave or actually fatigues you so much that you may not execute when you should.
See you tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent.
Monday, January 7, 2008
Week 5 - Mon- Current Equity: $546.40
There were no OneNightStand trades exiting this morning.
The weather is getting nice here in Minnesota for a few days. Always like to have chance to step out for a walk after trading all day, and not have to wear tons of clothing.
Within a couple of hours after the beginning of the week we had FirstStrike entries on all of our pairs. By mid-morning three of the trades were stopped out. For a while it looked like the currencies were going to have a strong day right out of the gate, but it hasn't worked out that way.
FirstStrike trades today:
-----
Gbp/Usd- Sold@ 1.9657, stopped for 60 pip loss
Gbp/Jpy- Bought@ 215.29, stopped for 60 pip loss
Usd/Jpy- Bought@ 109.49, stopped for 60 pip loss
Eud/Usd- Sold@ 1.4681, stop 1.4741. Currently short
Usd/Chf- Bought@ 1.1147, stop 1.1087. Currently long
-----
Current equity stands at $546.40.
The important thing is-- we've entered and now we let the market do it's work.
Have a good evening!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent.
The weather is getting nice here in Minnesota for a few days. Always like to have chance to step out for a walk after trading all day, and not have to wear tons of clothing.
Within a couple of hours after the beginning of the week we had FirstStrike entries on all of our pairs. By mid-morning three of the trades were stopped out. For a while it looked like the currencies were going to have a strong day right out of the gate, but it hasn't worked out that way.
FirstStrike trades today:
-----
Gbp/Usd- Sold@ 1.9657, stopped for 60 pip loss
Gbp/Jpy- Bought@ 215.29, stopped for 60 pip loss
Usd/Jpy- Bought@ 109.49, stopped for 60 pip loss
Eud/Usd- Sold@ 1.4681, stop 1.4741. Currently short
Usd/Chf- Bought@ 1.1147, stop 1.1087. Currently long
-----
Current equity stands at $546.40.
The important thing is-- we've entered and now we let the market do it's work.
Have a good evening!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent.
Sunday, January 6, 2008
Week 4 - Fri- Current Equity: $563.75
Hi everyone:
This week was the beginning of a long year, one that should be very exciting for the watchers of the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge.
The dollar is being buffeted and is charging back and forth energetically enough to test just about any trader's mettle. This action inevitably turns into trending action and we shall try to make the best of it when it comes.
We got to start off the year with 7 consecutive losses. From such a start, it can only get better. It was good that our position size was reduced due to holiday issues. Next week will be full position sizing again.
On to what happened this week-
Alpha account trading recap:
Start of week equity: $ 580.41
Completed FirstStrike trades:
EUR/USD: SELL 1.4694, stop 1.4754. -stopped out 60 pips loss
GBP/USD: BUY 2.0027, stop 1.9967. -stopped out 60 pips loss
USD/JPY: SELL 111.47, stop 112.07. -stopped out 60 pips loss
USD/CHF: BUY 1.1279, stop 1.1219. -stopped out 60 pips loss
GBP/JPY: BUY 224.17, stop 223.57. -stopped out 60 pips loss
Total of 300 pips in losses
Total of 0 pips in profits
-----
OneNightStand Exit(s) on 12/31/07 :
-None-
OneNightStand 01/04/08 entries:
Short GBP/JPY @ 213.59, stop 214.14.-stopped out for 55 pip loss
Short GBP/USD @ 1.9704, stop 1.9759.-stopped out for 55 pip loss
Total losses: 110 pips
-----
End of week equity: $ 563.75 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Gain on Week: $ (16.66)(3% decrease)
Unrealized P&L: $ 00.00
See you Monday!
Best wishes on your new year!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent.
This week was the beginning of a long year, one that should be very exciting for the watchers of the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge.
The dollar is being buffeted and is charging back and forth energetically enough to test just about any trader's mettle. This action inevitably turns into trending action and we shall try to make the best of it when it comes.
We got to start off the year with 7 consecutive losses. From such a start, it can only get better. It was good that our position size was reduced due to holiday issues. Next week will be full position sizing again.
On to what happened this week-
Alpha account trading recap:
Start of week equity: $ 580.41
Completed FirstStrike trades:
EUR/USD: SELL 1.4694, stop 1.4754. -stopped out 60 pips loss
GBP/USD: BUY 2.0027, stop 1.9967. -stopped out 60 pips loss
USD/JPY: SELL 111.47, stop 112.07. -stopped out 60 pips loss
USD/CHF: BUY 1.1279, stop 1.1219. -stopped out 60 pips loss
GBP/JPY: BUY 224.17, stop 223.57. -stopped out 60 pips loss
Total of 300 pips in losses
Total of 0 pips in profits
-----
OneNightStand Exit(s) on 12/31/07 :
-None-
OneNightStand 01/04/08 entries:
Short GBP/JPY @ 213.59, stop 214.14.-stopped out for 55 pip loss
Short GBP/USD @ 1.9704, stop 1.9759.-stopped out for 55 pip loss
Total losses: 110 pips
-----
End of week equity: $ 563.75 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Gain on Week: $ (16.66)(3% decrease)
Unrealized P&L: $ 00.00
See you Monday!
Best wishes on your new year!
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent.
Thursday, January 3, 2008
Week 4 - Thu- Current Equity: $569.19
I finally did get stopped out of the EUD/USD for a 60 pip loss.
A total of 5 FirstStrike trades and 5 losses.
That is the way trading works some weeks.
And, probably no correlation at all, but losses are losses; I had a flat tire today because of below zero weather..., and running on it a short distance to a safe get-off spot destroyed the tire. Had to buy 2 of them to balance them out. I hate those “donut” tires they put in cars these days....
We have the potential of a couple of short trades on OneNightStand for tomorrow- possible short in GBP/USD and possible short in GBP/JPY.
I'll send the particulars to the newsletter subscribers tonight around 12:00 midnight.
Current equity stands at $569.19.
We'll recap tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me which address you would like it sent to.
A total of 5 FirstStrike trades and 5 losses.
That is the way trading works some weeks.
And, probably no correlation at all, but losses are losses; I had a flat tire today because of below zero weather..., and running on it a short distance to a safe get-off spot destroyed the tire. Had to buy 2 of them to balance them out. I hate those “donut” tires they put in cars these days....
We have the potential of a couple of short trades on OneNightStand for tomorrow- possible short in GBP/USD and possible short in GBP/JPY.
I'll send the particulars to the newsletter subscribers tonight around 12:00 midnight.
Current equity stands at $569.19.
We'll recap tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me which address you would like it sent to.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Week 4 - Wed- Current Equity: $572.34
-Best wishes on a new trading year!!!!
This is Wednesday, January 2nd. First official trading day of the new year.
Congratulations on all of you making it to the new year intact. This should be a very exciting year. The markets are charging around like wild animals- right out of the gate. That is a very good sign.
The latest newsletter went out Dec. 31st and I got some nice comments about it. If you didn't get yours send a note to newsletter@infiniteyield.com and I'll make sure you get one.
Of the five trades indicated by FirstStrike Monday morning, December 31, 3 were stopped out pretty quickly (long GBP/USD, long GBP/JPY, short USD/JPY) and 2 pairs held in there with decent profits for a while before one of them got stopped out today earlier (USD/CHF) and one (EUD/USD) looking like it is about to perish any second
Not so bad financially because I took my own advise and am trading at much reduced size due to the holiday timeframe. Next week, back to full-bore!!
A note about the trailing positions, long EUD/USD and short USD/CHF, from last week. Since the trails (partial positions of very profitable entries from last week) were in the opposite direction of the respective pairs' FirstStrike entries for this week, we exited them at the same prices as this week's FirstStrike entries. (Try saying that fast, 3 times in a row!)
I lost a little on the trails relative to what I would have received by just getting out of the rest of the positions on Friday, but the numbers favor trailing when you have a strong performance like we had last week. And the justification of that math is evident in the continuing impulse like moves we are getting this week, even though we are stopped out of the primary moves in action right now.
The first FS orders that got hit this week were not successful, and the second ones were. That happens, and as mentioned in earlier posts, the numbers indicate much better overall results from taking only the first order indicated in the pairs traded.
A reader wrote in with a question late last week:
Hi Joel,
Are you going to discuss in your blog the market selection aspect of your forex challenge? For example, why did you choose the GBP/JPY cross but exclude AUD/USD or USD/CAD pairs? Was it based on historical performance of individual markets or some other considerations?
Thanks!
K-----
Good time to address this.
The 5 main currency pairs that I've chosen, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUD/USD, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are among the largest value currency pairs available. If one considers that almost 90% of all world trade is attached to these markets, it follows that any future major financial shifts should affect the trends of most if not all of these primary pairs. Which is why we are trading, to catch the “alpha” from this large financial shifts.
No adherence to any prior historical performance was considered. If that were the case, I would only be trading a couple of markets and positioning heavily. Anyone who knows me personally knows I absolutely abhor any form of curve fitting and eliminate whatever forms of it that might try to slide into a real trading account.
CURVE FITTING KILLS TRADERS!
Dozens of my acquaintances have been destroyed by unhealthy combinations of subtle curve-fitting. After months of adequate trading results, they suddenly spiraled into a “perfect storm” situation where they were risking too much on markets that were too correlated traded by methods that were too weak relative to their “optimized” expectations. Many of these elite traders never were able to regain their previous situations, just because they heard the seemingly innocuous siren call of “optimization”.
I prefer trading the 5 because, by trading a little less size on each of the pairs I should be able to smooth equity a little better than by trading fewer pairs.
By the way: thanks K-
Right now, the Alpha account's equity stands at $572.34.
I be back tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me which address you would like it sent to.
This is Wednesday, January 2nd. First official trading day of the new year.
Congratulations on all of you making it to the new year intact. This should be a very exciting year. The markets are charging around like wild animals- right out of the gate. That is a very good sign.
The latest newsletter went out Dec. 31st and I got some nice comments about it. If you didn't get yours send a note to newsletter@infiniteyield.com and I'll make sure you get one.
Of the five trades indicated by FirstStrike Monday morning, December 31, 3 were stopped out pretty quickly (long GBP/USD, long GBP/JPY, short USD/JPY) and 2 pairs held in there with decent profits for a while before one of them got stopped out today earlier (USD/CHF) and one (EUD/USD) looking like it is about to perish any second
Not so bad financially because I took my own advise and am trading at much reduced size due to the holiday timeframe. Next week, back to full-bore!!
A note about the trailing positions, long EUD/USD and short USD/CHF, from last week. Since the trails (partial positions of very profitable entries from last week) were in the opposite direction of the respective pairs' FirstStrike entries for this week, we exited them at the same prices as this week's FirstStrike entries. (Try saying that fast, 3 times in a row!)
I lost a little on the trails relative to what I would have received by just getting out of the rest of the positions on Friday, but the numbers favor trailing when you have a strong performance like we had last week. And the justification of that math is evident in the continuing impulse like moves we are getting this week, even though we are stopped out of the primary moves in action right now.
The first FS orders that got hit this week were not successful, and the second ones were. That happens, and as mentioned in earlier posts, the numbers indicate much better overall results from taking only the first order indicated in the pairs traded.
A reader wrote in with a question late last week:
Hi Joel,
Are you going to discuss in your blog the market selection aspect of your forex challenge? For example, why did you choose the GBP/JPY cross but exclude AUD/USD or USD/CAD pairs? Was it based on historical performance of individual markets or some other considerations?
Thanks!
K-----
Good time to address this.
The 5 main currency pairs that I've chosen, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, EUD/USD, GBP/USD and GBP/JPY are among the largest value currency pairs available. If one considers that almost 90% of all world trade is attached to these markets, it follows that any future major financial shifts should affect the trends of most if not all of these primary pairs. Which is why we are trading, to catch the “alpha” from this large financial shifts.
No adherence to any prior historical performance was considered. If that were the case, I would only be trading a couple of markets and positioning heavily. Anyone who knows me personally knows I absolutely abhor any form of curve fitting and eliminate whatever forms of it that might try to slide into a real trading account.
CURVE FITTING KILLS TRADERS!
Dozens of my acquaintances have been destroyed by unhealthy combinations of subtle curve-fitting. After months of adequate trading results, they suddenly spiraled into a “perfect storm” situation where they were risking too much on markets that were too correlated traded by methods that were too weak relative to their “optimized” expectations. Many of these elite traders never were able to regain their previous situations, just because they heard the seemingly innocuous siren call of “optimization”.
I prefer trading the 5 because, by trading a little less size on each of the pairs I should be able to smooth equity a little better than by trading fewer pairs.
By the way: thanks K-
Right now, the Alpha account's equity stands at $572.34.
I be back tomorrow.
Joel Rensink
www.infiniteyield.com
PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me which address you would like it sent to.
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