Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Post-Holiday Lurch Fails!- IFCN Wk 25 -Tue- Equity: $693.25

I hope that everyone had a restful Memorial Day holiday. We had some company over the holiday weekend, and much discussion and adroit partaking of flavorful food with complementary beverages ensued.

In addition, I wish to welcome the 33 new subscribers who found this blog over the extended weekend. Happy to have you aboard. A couple of you have Yahoo addresses that won't allow emails to them. Too bad.  Check the P.S.

The week started off with a last upward lurch to the Eur/Usd and oil prices with no follow through, so far.

Today, crude oil dropped over $3/barrel to $128.85. The dollar got stronger across the board, with the Eur/Usd dropping 90 pips from Friday's close. The correlation continues between the euro and oil.

Since there weren't any OneNightStand trades taken on Friday, there were no exits on Monday morning after the holiday.

On Monday, we entered the short Gbp/Usd @ 1.9770 and got stopped out relatively quickly for a 60 pip loss. Then, this morning we got hit on the buy order in the Eur/Usd @ 1.5810 and got stopped out quickly at 1.5750 for a 60 pip loss. The remaining 3 FirstStrike entries listed below are still in progress.

The following are our 5 FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5810, stopped out at 1.5750 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 205.53, stop 204.63. (90 pip risk) Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9770, stopped out at 1.9830 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0311, stop 1.0251, trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 103.82, stop 103.22, trade in progress.
Note: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

We have some potential for decent profits yet this week. It would be nice to have a few extended moves. The rest of the week awaits!

Current equity is $693.25.

Joel Rensink

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MikeZhang said...

Hi, Joel:

I don't mean to disrespectful to you.But I just thought the system you used "First Strike" is a bit too simple to believe it. I know, according to several decades of back testing, this system have its edges. But the TRADING shouldn't be so easy right? Only a few one can survive in any market.

According to your previous newsletter, the biggest enemy to traders using any profitable system is that they often want to "tweak" it especially when confronting drawdown. But I think this is human instinct that we always want to "improve/upgrade" something. If we just "blindly" follow the systmem, there will be no advancement in the world. Human are supposed to evolve right? That's the value of life.

Is really success trading anti-human-nature?

P.S: Sorry If I don't made my words understandable coz English is not naive languane.

Thanks & Happy trading


MikeZhang said...

btw, your yen-cross pairs will be very sweety this week.

No matter how worse the US data will be, Dollar is not willing to move lower:)


Joel said...

Thanks for the good comment, Mike.

I can help answer this with an example--

Everyone "knows" that one of the simplest ways to get rich in America and many other developed countries is to buy real estate somehow and hold for long periods of time.

It works, and has an extremely good track record over time.

If you start when you are 25 years old, get a house to live in yourself (or with cooperative friends in the program with you), and then obtain another every 5 years, rent the extras out, paying for the mortgages etc..., by the time you are 60 you will have 7 or 8 houses, with most of them paid for. If the average house you bought is worth $250K (cheap ones) you will have somewhere around $2 million created without much effort.

Just because this information is simple and readily available, does this mean everyone in America will retire with 7 - 8 houses?

Hardly any will, and most will be lucky to have even one house paid for. Why? Because people don't execute according to their own best interests even when they "know" what they should do.

Why do people speed? smoke? take drugs?

About following systems.

Are there better ways of trading than the simple methods detailed by this blog?

Yes. But do you know what they are?

You are much better off following something that DOES work than trading something complicated that you "think" should work. As a side point, the fact that the system is simple makes it unlikely that those who consider themselves important and sophisticated will trade it.

That is what makes a market. Differing points of view.

I will be the first person in line ready to trade a method that someone else discovered, IF it is better than what I already know works. If not, why bother.

And, if that means trading "simple" methods that are extremely robust-- I will, very happily.

Joel Rensink

PS: I welcome other's comments on this matter. I am curious about how some of the other traders view this point....