Monday, December 15, 2008

Is the Dollar the New Yen? -- IFCN Wk 54 –Mon- Equity: $1,970.53

The euro traded near 9 week highs against the dollar on the belief that the Federal Reserve will cut the target rate for overnight lending to a record lows. If the Fed keeps lowering interest it will make virtually every other currency a carry trade against the dollar, similar to the situation that existed with the Japanese Yen for so many years.

If this indeed starts turning the other currencies into “buys”, there could be some interesting developments and opportunities for forex traders. “Carry trade” business is one of the major sources of income for international hedge funds. Allying ourselves in their direction; if the trends support the position-- can be a very profitable circumstance.


After exiting our profitable positions from last week, all that remained was an unprofitable position in Gbp/Jpy. We got stopped out at 138.23 and then shortly after got long via FirstStrikePlus.

We got our 4 existing FirstStrikePlus trades rather quickly today. Though currently profitable, after seeing ample profits last week, it wouldn't be surprising for the market to take a breather. Nevertheless, we are positioned for more weakness in the dollar.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • gbp/usd: Long @1.5173, stop 1.4993.. Trade in progress.
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.3676, stop 1.3417. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/jpy: Short @133.04, stopped at 138.23.
  • gbp/jpy: Long @139.23, stop 135.91. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.1582, stop 1.1763. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,730.53

Silver position equity: $240.00
(Current XAG price: $10.60 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,970.53

Another new equity high!

Joel Rensink

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. They've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!


Skyline said...

Hi Joel,
it seems there is an error in your gbpjpy long entry for this week, infact you wrote :

gbp/jpy: Short @133.04, stopped at 138.23.
gbp/jpy: Long @133.04, stop 138.23. Trade in progress.

but the long order should be activated at 139.23 as you reported in your weekly email to the newsletter :

gbp/jpy: 136.74 OPEN - Still Short from 133.04/stop 138.23
BUY 139.23, stop 135.91.
SELL 134.25, stop 137.57.
(NOTE: 332 pip risk)

Am I missing something ?

Thx and have a nice holidays ! ;)

Glen Noller said...

Yee haw! Lovin' these moves!


Joel said...


You are absolutely correct.

Blogger has some issues when you cut and paste. Depending on what browser you use when updating you have to go through different methods to save after revising. If you don't do it just right errors are inevitable.

I fixed it, thanks for noticing.


Skyline said...

You're welcome Joel :)
Another question : I have different figures for entries in EURUSD and USDCHF from yours, I think it depends on how you calculate previous weekly range. Could you please tell me exactly starting and ending candle that you consider to calculate previous weekly range ?

Thx so much for your great blog !


Joel said...

Thanks Skyline--

For ONS and FSP, (and all other methods that require data) I only include high and low prices from 00:00 CST Monday to Friday 15:00 CST.
Absolutely no Sunday price action!
Simple as that. And I don't use candle charts. There is no statistical proof that any candlestick patterns "work", and I find they make too much visual noise with little benefit.



Skyline said...

That's very clear thx for explaination Joel (btw I don't use neither the candlestick charts :))

Have a nice day ! :)