Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Dollar Weakens FSP Responds! -- IFCN Wk 53 –Wed- Equity: $1,767.89.

New equity watermark today! $1.767.89. That is a 253.5% increase in the last 53 weeks. At the very least-- better than T-Bills.

Any idea how many trades we took in the last year, both FirstStrike and OneNightStand-- ending this Monday morning? Definitely more than enough to be statistically viable.


The euro strengthened in the last two trading days, trading near two week highs vs. the dollar as worldwide financial maneuverings to mitigate bank insolvency appear to be working.

Canada, Europe, the U.K., Sweden, Australia and New Zealand all lowered their interest rates this month. Few as much as the dollar. Last week the Fed auctioned off Billions in T-Bills with a 0% interest rate and sold all of them, almost instantly.

The only reason anyone would buy a T-Bill for zero return is so they could put it on a balance sheet. The idiocracy continues.

Right now, the Eur/Usd is one of the world's best carry trades, when you account for spreads and ease of transaction. A full 100,000 unit contract returns around $1.40/day. At the very least, now it doesn't cost you anything overnight to hold the Euro.

Maybe the market may begin to figure out that mania high prices for the dollar are just as dangerous as mania low prices were a few months ago.


We almost got filled on the FSP buy of Gbp/Jpy @ 140.82. Who knows, maybe later in the week? Still no fills on either the FSP Usd/Jpy buy OR sell. Maybe it'll just be a blank for the week. We have decent action in the Euro and Swiss. Could be a big week.

The week's current FirstStrikePlus trades:
  • eur/usd: Long @ 1.2859, stop 1.2739. Trade in progress.
  • gbp/usd: Long @ 1.5007, stop 1.4651. Trade in progress.
  • usd/chf: Short @ 1.2090, stop 1.2221. Trade in progress.
FirstStrikePlus trades will be exited on Mondays at 00:00 CST if profitable. (First-Profitable-Open Exit) See complete rule-set for effective trade management.

Trading account equity: $1,599.90.

Silver position equity: $168.00
(Current XAG price: $10.24 – 200 unit position average: $9.40)
TOTAL Equity: $1,767.89.

Joel Rensink

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cliffg said...

Very interesting on the GBP/JPY.
I actually got filled long at 140.82 at 02:28 CST Dec 8 on Oanda.
The o/h/l/c chart shows high at 140.79 but the min/max chart shows high at 140.822
I talked to Oanda about it and she said the o/h/l/c shows average bid ask whereas min/max shows actual.
I was subsequently stopped out for a loss. I guess there wasn't enough at 140.82 to go around -- darn.

The Archiphage said...

I'm not sure, but I'd guess it's something like 325-350 trades in 53 weeks. Using the high number, that comes out to an average +0.7243% per trade. Sure doesn't feel like that when were taking the trades! (And that's a good thing...otherwise it wouldn't work!)