Saturday, June 28, 2008

Dollar Slammed this Week! OneNightStand profits!--IFCN Wk 29 -Fri- Equity: $767.88.

After a volatile beginning, this week the major currencies continued the directions set last week, with the dollar losing against all of them.

The Fed holding the same interest rate and some in the Eurozone increasing theirs-- was a knee-jerk recipe for dollar weakness. Less interest differential for the dollar-- the dollar loses some supporters.

As many are beginning to realize, the carry-trade is one of the largest reasons big money avidly chases the Forex rabbit so hard. The coming weeks will tell the tale for how large the money-shifting will get.

Here's this week's recap:

The data below is as of Friday's close, June 27, 2008:

Start of week equity: $ 789.67.

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 06/23/08:

Completed FirstStrike trades this week:
  • Eur/Usd: short @ 1.5557, stopped out at 1.5617 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 211.09, stopped out at 211.99 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9673, stopped out at 1.9733 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0415, stopped out at 1.0355 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 107.90, stopped out at 107.30 for a 60 pip loss.
Total losses:  330 pips
Total profits:     0 pips
Net losses:     330 pips ($29.77)

OneNightStand 06/27/08 entry(s)
  1. Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.5769.
  2. Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.9896.
  3. Usd/Chf: Short @ 1.0222.
If the protective stop is not elected on Friday, the ONS rules are to hold the trade over until Monday morning, 00:00 CST

Unrealized Profits:        $    7.98
End of week equity: $ 767.88 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss for Week:      $ 21.79 (2.7% weekly decrease)

This was an ok week even though we lost all five FirstStrike trades. A couple of them held on for a while showing that the potential for a sizable move is still in the offing. Then, on Friday morning, we got three OneNightStand trades which remained profitable into the close, ready for an exit on Monday morning. Mixed results, but results they are.

Good quote you might want to put on a sticky note near your trading computer--
"It is a truth very certain that when it is not in our power to determine what is true we ought to follow what is most probable." — Descartes

See you next week.

Joel Rensink

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Hotmail or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!



Anonymous said...

Hi Joel. Thanks for posting this blog, very informative.

I was wondering, if you were to get stopped out of all your First Strike and ONS trades (assuming you had all five currencies in trade on the same day) what would your approximate drawdown be?

From reading your blog I believe you a using about 1% risk per trade, so is it around 10% loss in a week if you had all trades open and hit the stop loss?

Thanks, keep up the great work.

Joel said...

Thanks for the question.

The complete answer is given in the Monday, June 30th post.

Short answer:
The total drawdown for the week could very likely exceed 10% if we got 5 failed FirstStrike trades and 5 failed OneNightStand trades the same week.

A note-- it is almost impossible to get OneNightStand trades at the end of the week if all the trading pairs that week had losing FirstStrike trades. There is a serial dependency between the two systems. That is why I choose to trade the systems together-- they are symbiotic.