Monday, June 16, 2008

Now the Euro Gets Stronger!--IFCN Wk 28 -Mon- Equity: $810.02

I'm sure you have noticed that the news rotates back and forth every few days as to which currency is taking a dramatic gain over the others.

When this happens this often, it is usually a distribution area. These are typically very difficult areas to trade. You need a system that trades on price, and you need to execute trades precisely with little fear of the consequences of your trades. And accept losses as part of the business.

The Euro zone inflation level rose to a record high of 3.7 percent in May, causing sharp comments from Euro-land about how they have to take immediate steps to curb it.

Currency sooth-sayers intimate that a July ECB rate hike is almost certain. The shortcut thinking is that with an interest increase, the Euro may be able to hold fairly well against the dollar at these levels. Maybe. We will see.

Our profits come from reality not fitting with the majority's expectations.

It doesn't matter much to most serious traders. The markets will continue to duke it out, I will keep taking trades and the winner will likely show up in a profit column for some week in the future.

We exited the four OneNightStand trades entered Friday right after midnight this morning.  The results are as follows:
---Sold @ 1.5365, exited at 1.5394 for -29 pips
---Long @ 210.76, exited at 2.1114 for +38 pips
---Sold @ 1.9433, exited at 1.9505 for -72 pips
---Long @ 108.10, exited at 108.24 for +14 pips

All in all, the OneNightStand trades lost 49 pips

All 5 FirstStrike orders got hit today. An interesting combination. I find it hard to imagine that they will all be profitable by the end of the week. The interesting thing will be finding out which, if any survive.

We've had a great few weeks of gains. While its possible to have numerous profitable weeks in a row, that only tends to happen when there are big, mature trends in force. It is less likely when there are huge whips back and forth every other week as we have been experiencing of late.

The following are this week's FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5444, stop 1.5384. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 211.89, stop 210.99. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: long @ 1.9555, stop 1.9495. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: short @ 1.0424, stop 1.0484. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: short @ 107.74, stop 108.34. Trade in progress.
Note: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $810.02. An encouraging start to the week!

Joel Rensink

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