Monday, June 23, 2008

Peter, Paul and Mary..., Dictate the Strength of the Euro! --IFCN Wk 29 -Mon- Equity: $799.33.

Inflation is increasing noticably in the Eurozone and the US. More noticably in the Eurozone of late because of the previous extreme emphasis on the America's economic situations which are loudly and rancorously trumpeted.

Some have correctly noted that both the Eurozone and the US have similar economic growth figures so far. Yes, but those figures are very deceptive as is what economic growth the figures are based on.

Economic growth caused by increases in tax-based employment (government jobs) is John robbing Peter and Paul to pay Mary. The financial trick of creating money to pay John and taxing Peter, Paul and Mary additionally to pay for it is just one step away from the pure case of John robbing Paul....

Europe is highly-taxed and inundated with social programs run amok. The US is a bit better in the economy efficiency department with lower taxes and business structures available for lower taxes, and limited social programs by comparison. (An admitted Jeffersonian, I believe in few social programs other than individual personal choice to help the unfortunate. In my ideal political cosmos, it would be very important to make good friends, and to have been a good friend if you fell on hard times.)

Despite all of the diabolical calls for the end of the US financial system, the housing market concerns, rising unemployment and historic gasoline prices---- the complete and utter end of consumer spending is another oft-called catastrophe that has not happened.

The US will likely rebound faster than Europe with its technological advantages.

The US has a relatively happy bunch of people who are optimistic and aren't afraid to continue purchasing items. They are certain that their future is bright.

The other continent has pessimistic citizens who have governments that are constrictive and anti-business.

Who would you want to bet on? Or hang out with?

The dollar could easily get substantially stronger over the coming months over the Euro and similar currencies.

The following are this week's FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: short @ 1.5557, stop 1.5617. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Jpy: short @ 211.09, stopped out at 211.99 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9673, stop 1.9733. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: long @ 1.0415, stop 1.0355. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: long @ 107.90, stop 107.30. Trade in progress.
Note: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

The Gbp/Jpy short trade was just entered at the low of the day. Then I got stopped out shortly thereafter. You may not have been entered on your platform due to small differences in entry prices. If so, just ride whatever Gbp/Jpy trade is entered to the end of the week as usual.

Current equity is $799.33. A positive start to the week so far.

Joel Rensink

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The Archiphage said...

Based on your AboutMe, I wondered on which side of the anarchist/minarchist divide I would find you. Now I know. (Die, heretic!) But seriously, are you that optimistic about American attitudes? I tend to see most of the debate here in the US centering around just what particular flavor of totalitarian socialist nightmare will be imposed. Jeffersonian ideas seem to generate nothing but ridicule in politics at the national level. I submit the national press treatment of Dr. Ron Paul and his candidacy as my evidence.

Joel said...

Answer: a guarded Yes.

I have enough reason to believe that financial surprise of a magnitude that even hoary Europeans can't imagine will turn brooding Socialists (who feel a foreboding shadow over their grave yet know not whence it comes) into pure Capitalists the same way Nazis ceased to exist the day after Hitler died.

America will survive for the same reason people on a quiet street will get far out of the way of a screaming lunatic that is sure that he is from Neptune.

America is not afraid, even when it should be. It is brave and noble when it doesn't need to be. It will survive because America is an idea, not a place.