Thursday, July 31, 2008

Nothing is quite as perfect as Great Plans that fail! --IFCN Wk 34 -Thu- Equity: $679.77.

"The marvel of all history is the patience with which men and
women submit to burdens unnecessarily laid upon them by their governments."--
William Edgar Borah

The report this morning caused tons of buying of the Eur/Usd
and Gbp/Usd, lots of selling in the Usd/Chf and Usd/Jpy---
followed by complete reversals in all of them except the Usd/Jpy which only had an anemic rebound.

The dollar truly won this round. Those who chose to sell the
dollar, regardless of how long they held the position must have had a chill when the market did a complete reversal after all the follow-through.

What we saw today was true professionals realizing this might be the last time for a long while that they could sell the Eur/Usd at such good prices. 130 pip reversals after Eur/Usd-friendly news is a serious wake-up call to Euro bulls.

This action tends to indicate a wild time tomorrow when the
actual Non-Farm Payroll numbers are released.

Oil came down another $2.69 today. As I write this, it has
fallen even further overnight. If the correlations hold fast
between oil and the Euro, the Euro may have a lot more sliding to do.

As others are finally now realizing, the US economy is
much closer to bottoming than the European community.

The first period of denial turns into acceptance, which is where many financial heads are heading right now. It will be interesting to see how the reality of trading reactions will meet the theories of news punditry at the NFP news in the


I'm still long the Usd/Chf, and profitable. The report reaction
this morning took the price of the Usd/Chf right down to the
entry, then rebounded quickly back to the highs of the day.

The following is this week's remaining FirstStrike position:
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.0407, stop 1.0347. Trade in progress.
Note: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $679.77.

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink

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MikeZhang said...

Hi, Joel:

I have a question for the automatic trading systems. How do you think of them?

Actually your "firststrike" is not discretional, with simple knowlege of coding, anyone can create this EA and using it (like you said it has proved edge for several decades!)

So why still bother setting this trades manually every week? I don't get it.


MikeZhang said...


I am wrong, after reading your today's post.

Have a nice day!

Joel said...

All trading is Discretional!!!!

Whether to trade an EA or not ..., is up to whom?

Unless someone is right now holding a gun to your head forcing to take a specific trade, it is up to your discretion whether or not you will actually take it.

Adj. 1.discretional - having or using the ability to act or decide according to your own judgment; "Whether a trader executes 10 lots against the trend or 3 lots is a discretional choice."