Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Weatherman..., Trader- 2! --IFCN Wk 33 -Tue- Equity: $675.23.

Hours after the last posting, we prove that we are long or short..., until we aren't. And, we paid personally for our losses.

The dollar bulged suddenly on Tuesday because Treasury Secretary Paulson vocally supported the currency and the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia president stated that he thought interest rates should be raised. Despite the nervousness implied in the markets recently, at last there is a persistent belief that the Fed is concerned enough about a “too robust” of an economy that will require higher interest rates.

Because of the above utterances, all of the original FirstStrike trades were entered and summarily stopped out. I wasn't surprised, as so many major indications have been indicating that the dollar is showing remarkable strength after so many years of weakness.

Not that I believe, or any other credible economic watcher believes that the current dollar strength is a permanent turnaround. But the current dollar strength should be much more persistent than generally expected, and could be financially damaging to determined dollar bears.

Currently, the Challenge account has only been taking the first trade of the week and cancelling the other side of the weekly FirstStrike orders.

As has happened a number of times in the past, this week I neglected to cancel some of my reverse orders, resulting in long positions in both the Usd/Chf and the Usd/Jpy, as cited below. Reverse trades are valid trades. Although they increase the weekly risk, they also offer additional potential reward when major currency reversals take place so quickly.

The following are this week's FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.5923, stopped out at 1.5863 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 212.28, stopped out at 213.18 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.9996, stopped out at 1.9936 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf: Short @ 1.0160, stopped out at 1.0220 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: Short @ 106.31, stopped out at 106.91 for a 60 pip loss.

Reverse trades taken: (See explanation above)
  • Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.0260, stop 1.0200. Trade currently in progress.
  • Usd/Jpy: Long @ 107.31, stop 106.71. Trade currently in progress.
Note: Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $675.23.

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL, Yahoo or Hotmail addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

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