Monday, October 27, 2008

One Night Stand trades Successful! -IFCN Wk 47 – Mon - $1,430.86

After this morning's open at 00:00 CST, I exited the 4 surviving OneNightStand trades from Friday. The summary follows-

OneNightStand 08/24/08 entries:
*eur/usd: Short @1.2728, out at 1.2566 for 162 pips profit
*gbp/jpy: Short @152.82, out at 147.20 for 562 pips profit
*gbp/usd: Short @1.6029, out at 1.5717 for 312 pips profit
*usd/jpy: Short @95.33, out at 93.59 for 174 pips profit
Total ONS Profits: $ 84.70
(Total increase from Friday's equity: $45.50)

Current trade equity is: $1,473.86

Special Silver long position:
Silver position equity: (-$43.00 )
(Current XAG price: $9.07 – 100 unit position average: $9.50)

TOTAL EQUITY: $1,430.86

After all that volatility last week, it isn't surprising that there are still no FirstStrikePlus orders filled this week. I would be ok with none of them getting filled, but it's likely that at least a couple might, the most likely being the Usd/Chf trades which are only 128 pips away from this morning's open. Contrast that with the Gbp/Jpy pair which has buy/sell orders spaced more than 1200 pips from the open. Last week's move in the pound/yen was spectacular and had a historically large weekly range. It would be best if we didn't get a trade in that market until things quiet down.

I thought it would be instructive to compare last week's actual results trading FirstStrikePlus with what the actual system returns would be exiting on the first-profitable Monday's open -- which would've been this morning's open. If I had waited till this morning's open to exit, in every case except one – the long Usd/Chf trade – there would have been a substantial increase in profits. See below---

Mechanical entry/exit of last week's FSP: (*) is improvement over actual results
Eur/Usd: Short @ 1.3367, exited at 1.2593 for 774 pips profit (+212)
Gbp/Jpy: Short @ 174.07, exited at 1.4764 for 2643 pips profit (+896)
Gbp/Usd: Short @ 1.7193, exited at 1.5736 for 1457 pips profit (+354)
Usd/Chf: Long @ 1.1401, exited at 1.1607 for 206 pips profit (-66 )
Usd/Jpy: Short @ 100.95, exited at 93.80 for 715 pips profit (+352 )

Total losses: 0 pips
Total profits: 5795 pips (+1748)
Net profit: $280.95
Total additional gain vs. actual results: $77.89 (38% better results if I had held to Monday's open)

This is of course just one example, and it is not likely that we'll see many more weeks like the last one. As mentioned last week, with the action we saw- it became more of a gamble to be in the market at all. Even though we could have improved our profits by staying in, it could have easily worked out negatively for us.

This week may be a good one for reflection. And maybe a little rest.

This weekend I am going to be in Las Vegas for the London Squeeze workshop, Saturday Nov. 1st. I am looking forward to meeting the traders, some who've come from around the world. If this event is anything like the previous one, it will be beneficial for all of us.

Have a good evening.

Joel Rensink

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1 comment:

The Archiphage said...

What an exciting week to be in the markets! "How I Traded Through the Panic of '08" should make an interesting chapter in all of our memoirs. Now I'm continually reminding myself that the EUR/USD doesn't usually move 500 pips every day, so I won't be bored when things settle down.