Monday, October 13, 2008

Rebound at Last! IFCN Wk 45 – Mon – Equity $1,326.12

Last week I revisted the double-edged sword issue of volatility and the benefit to using breakout points which are adaptive to current volatility instead of fixed breakout points. I am releasing a version of FirstStrike that better adapts to market conditions. Bring on the big moves! I will be using this adaptive version from now on in the IFCN Challenge account.

Since I was not able to get the ruleset for FirstStrike Plus distributed before this week's action began on Monday, I used the same double risk/doubled distance fixed point method used the previous week. Volatility is, of course, even higher this week than last.

When you have the Dow rocketing up more than a 1100 points in a day, and the Gbp/Jpy up more than 1400 pips from Friday's lows, you can be sure that this business is not for amateurs and order placement better be made with due respect to the action we are experiencing.

In last week's recap post, completed a short time ago – I inserted a link to download the PDF which explains how the orders for FirstStrike Plus are calculated. If you wish to continue with the original version of FirstStrike, that is definitely up to you; just be aware that a 100 pip move right now in the Gbp/Usd takes less time than a 20 pip move did 3 weeks ago in the same trading pair. Again, here is the link to FirstStrike PLUS.

As a side note: It is very possible that we are seeing a bottom being made in the Gbp/Usd, Eur/Usd, and maybe even the Gbp/Jpy that could last for weeks, months, and perhaps even years. Many great companies' stocks have hit irrationally low prices that will undoubtedly be snapped up. Microsoft, although not my favorite company, is currently irreplaceable in a technical world. From what I saw today, I'm certain Microsoft is a huge buy. And I don't ever like stocks.

It may be a little early to tell for sure, but the level of panic that masses of people have been feeling last week makes the kind of bottoms that stick for a very long time.


After this morning's open at 00:00 CST, I exited the short OneNightStand Eur/Usd trade from Friday. I was short @ 1.3442 and had gone into the weekend profitable, but not very encouraged by the end-of-week action I saw. I exited the Eur/Usd this morning at 1.3522 for an 80 pip loss. ($12.23 total equity loss from Friday.)

Here are the IFCN results of this week's FirstStrike trades:
  • Eur/Usd: Long @ 1.3623, stopped out at 1.3503 for a 120 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Jpy: Long @ 171.74, stop 169.94. Trade in progress.
  • Gbp/Usd: Long @ 1.7119, stop 1.6999. Trade in progress.
  • Usd/Chf: Short @ 1.1258, stopped out at 1.1378 for a 120 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy: Long @ 101.02, stop 99.82. Trade in progress.

FirstStrike trades not stopped out before Friday-- exit on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current trade equity is: $1,326.12.

I haven't picked up any more silver, yet. I'm beginning to feel like a werewolf after Friday's cleanout moves.

Have a good morning.

Joel Rensink

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1 comment:

Cmartin371 said...

Hi Joel,

Do you still use a 50% trailing stop with FS+? Thanks