Monday, December 17, 2007

New Week--Last Equity Check- $519.78

We are observing typical pre-holiday trading.  Every few years we get something exciting just before the end of year.  I'm always willing to accept it if we get it.  So far, the markets are pretty range bound.

I started off exiting my OneNightStand trade this morning at Midnight (00:00).  On Friday we sold GBP/USD @ 2.0181.  I exited this morning at 2.0184 for a 3 pip loss pluss a little for interest.  That cost me about $1.00.

Shortly thereafter, I had 4 FirstStrike trades executed this morning.  They were:
  • eud/usd:  SELL 1.4391, stop 1.4451.    -Still in with a small profit.
  • gbp/jpy:  SELL 227.81, stop 228.41.    -Stopped out for a 60 pip loss.
  • gbp/usd:  SELL 2.0134, stop 2.0194.  -Stopped out for a 60 pip loss
  • usd/chf:   BUY 1.1570, stop 1.1510.     -Stopped out for a 60 pip loss.
One of my readers emailed me this morning:
From the Oanda chart, it looks as if the short trade on GBP/USD has been opened and stopped out by 7:00 a.m. CST. Is this correct? If so, will you reinstall the reverse FirstStrike order to go long on this market or are you done with GBP/USD for the rest of the week? And generally, are you going to have some rule regarding reverse FirstStrike orders for your challenge or you will rather decide on whether or not to use reverse orders on case-by-case basis? --T.K

Thanks T.K. for the questions.  I'm sure others would like to know more too.

---Yes. No. Yes. No.---
Yes, GBP/USD was opened and stopped out. No, I won't reinstall the reverse FirstStrike order to go long on this market. Yes, I am done with the GBP/USD for the rest of the week. No, there will be no rules added about adding reverse orders. If anyone wishes to do reverse orders, they are welcome to do that of course.

The reverse
FirstStrike can sometimes be THE trade of the week, and by not taking a second or third trade, you can miss the largest move of a week.

READ THIS CAREFULLY: If this Alpha account only traded the second
FirstStrike trades after a losing first trade, trading this way could still be very successful. But not the best. You would miss the largest and most profitable outliers. Trading "seconds" is not as risk-adjusted, or profitable as taking the very first trade of the week.

The problem many people have is they become action junkies in their trading. I know, because I've had to tremendously modify my own behavior in this area. The more you enjoy trading the greater the problem you can have in this area.

To summarize:
If you know what your systems edge numbers are, trade those numbers.

Does this mean that you can't deviate at all from your trading plan? Depending on who you are, yes, or no. Certain people need to have an absolute plan or system that they will never deviate from. That is their security.

Others understand the cause of the edge behind the numbers, so they occasionally may deviate from a rigid plan because they are after additional return that they may know is hidden behind the scenes.  If you can do this and not hurt your bottom line, "go with God".  
I personally ONLY take trades that have proven to have a risk-adjusted edge.  

Long explanation for T.K's questions, but in short:
I plan on making very few deviations from the systems traded here. In the long run, trading mechanically with OneNightStand and FirstStrike should exceed anyone's financial wishes.

One last comment on this subject.  
If I see free money sitting out in the market, I will take advantage of it.  And then I will try to explain to you later why I "had" to take the additional trade.  Deal?
I still have the following USD/JPY orders working-- 
BUY 113.61, stop 113.01--SELL 112.61, stop 113.21.  OCO (One cancels the other)
  • If either of these orders gets elected, the other is cancelled.  
  • If the elected order gets stopped out for a loss, FirstStrike trading is done for that pair for the rest of the week.
  • If the order is elected and is not stopped out by the end of the week, I will exit the market just before 15:00 CST on Friday.
So far, we have had nothing but resounding losses this week.

Last week's ending equity:                       $535.40
4 loss trades (1 ONS, 3 FirstStrike:       15.62 -                    
Current total:                                              519.78
 I wouldn't be surprised if the week was a complete loser.  It happens.  All the time.

Time for lunch.  

Turkey bagel sandwich and soup.  Trader food.    : )

Best wishes for the rest of your day and your holiday preparations.

Joel Rensink

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: and tell me the address you would like it sent to.

PPS:  Have you thought about the fact that $500 to more than $150K in less than ten years is the same mathematically as $3500 to $1 million?  

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