Friday, April 4, 2008

Non-Farm Payroll Surprise? Not really.... -- IFCN Wk 17 -Fri- Equity: $783.77

The big news today was the first-Friday-of-the-month Non Farm payroll report.

According to today's Labor Department report, the US economy lost 80,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March. Some forecasters had predicted an even larger loss.

February and March payrolls were revised downward by 67,000 jobs for a total cumulative loss of 152,000 jobs.

Friday's report is the first time since June of 2003 that the American economy lost jobs three months straight, and the 80,000 decline was the biggest loss of that size since March of 2003.

The unemployment rate, moved up to 5.1 percent from 4.8 percent in February. That was the highest rate since September of 2005.

This news was obviously well-anticipated by the market, seen from the action that transpired after the news broke. The Eur/Usd popped up, then shot down, then snapped back up..., staying within a narrow range for the rest of the day. All in all the market closed within 15 pips of where it was seconds before the report.

NOTE: I consider all of this talk about recession and bad economy “much ado about nothing”. Most countries in the European community would give their right eye for a 5.1 percent unemployment figure. And they have socialized medicine and governments which are anything but small.

What is not recognized by much of the world, and even many Americans who watch these figures and the news like a hawk to figure out what is really going on – is this: a huge portion of the “employed” Americans have more than one job. These over-employed Americans are extremely industrious people, creative beyond all parallel in the world because they actually have a system which rewards them if they come up with something new and innovative. If their excess productivity was measured against the non-productivity of the unemployed, there would be less concern about the NFP numbers the last few months.

Why do people in other countries who invent some cool device or technology immediately come to the US? Because they can get paid here for their brilliance. Relatively quickly, too.

I am not being a nationalist or chest-beater by saying this. They are the self-evident facts. Even though it gets to be a little “dog-eat-dog” sometimes, at least it is interesting here and you can meet some real innovators starting a world-beating company right down the street at the coffee shop.

On to a recap of our trading week--

We had no ONS trades executed.

The data below is as of Friday's close, April 4, 2008:

This week's Alpha account trading recap:
Start of week equity: $ 827.35

Completed FirstStrike trades:

Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5842, stopped out @ 1.5782 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Jpy: short @ 198.28, stopped out @ 198.88 for a 60 pip loss.
Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9875, stopped out @ 1.9935 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Chf: short @ .9913, stopped out @ .9973 for a 60 pip loss.
Usd/Jpy: short @ 99.27, stopped out @ 99.87 for a 60 pip loss

Total of 300 pips in losses.
Total of 0 pips in profits.
Net gain: 0 pips in profits.

OneNightStand Exit(s) on 03/31/08:
OneNightStand 04/04/08 entries:
None- No trades entered

Unrealized P&L: $ 0.00
End of week equity: $ 783.77 (includes unrealized P&L)
Total Loss on Week: $ 43.58 (5.2% weekly decrease)

It was nice we didn't lose more. The markets were definitely choppy.

Have a good weekend. Next week should be better!

Joel Rensink

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to: and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

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