Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Eur/Usd has a double top! More Downside likely -- IFCN Wk 17 -Mon- Equity: $783.77

I got stopped out of this week's final two FirstStrike pairs, the short Gbp/Jpy and the short Usd/Chf. That makes all five FirstStrike trades concluded for the week with a total of 300 pips loss.

Current equity is $783.77. I will wait patiently for some possible OneNightStand trades this weekend.

The Euro/Usd does appear to have double-topped at the $1.59 area as I thought it should. Financially, I have profited highly from that view this week.

Finally, others are beginning to see cracks in the Euro. Its problems have only recently been receiving some press, as it has been oh so stylish to bash the US dollar. Even if it has deserved much of the drubbing. The Euro is a currency held by a group of countries who have less technological inspiration, less productivity, higher unemployment, higher taxes and are more Socialized than the country that uses the US dollar. This is a worldwide economy and very difficult for one continent to power on with out help from similar continental economies.

In no way is this a put-down at non-US countries. I personally would prefer living in many of them rather than most places in the States. But ignoring the facts about real values does no one any credit either.

I willingly sell the dollar if that is the way it must travel. And buy it if it is regaining value versus inflated views of other currencies.

Traders can afford no financial loyalty to a country's currency values except privately. As traders, we have no control over the macro issues, so must agree with the market's stance on the value of our personal currency.

Back to my statement about it being difficult for major economies to succeed without help.... I do not believe that the economies here in the States or in Europe are all that bad. I believe the negativity is WAY overhyped.

People are all eating. They are driving to work, and working when they get there. They are still buying stuff. They are grumbling. Grumbling is good. People will grumble when they don't have everything they want. But wanting things they don't have makes people creative. Being creative is good.

When people quit grumbling is when you should worry.

See you tomorrow.

Joel Rensink

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