Monday, April 28, 2008

The Dollar making a slow turn? - IFCN Wk 21 -Mon- Equity: $722.36

There was no real news out today, except that the dollar continues to trade near an 8 week high versus the yen.

That means that someone is beginning to buy the dollar. And the Euro still isn't having the best time right now. Euro weakness last week wasn't met with a snapback, just a wimper today.

I always find it useful when a big bank tells you how to trade--- I found the following on Bloomberg:

Bank of America Says Buy Euro, Sell Dollar on U.S. Rate Cuts

Investors were encouraged today to buy the euro and sell the dollar because they believe that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates and the European Central Bank will keep them steady until October. That is at least the opinion of Bank of America, Corp.

Bank of America specifically recommended investors buy the euro at $1.5630 with a target of $1.6250 and sell the currency should it close below $1.5342 for two consecutive days.

Maybe they will be right, but I think the information is more useful to traders as a “contrary opinion” indicator.

When banks give the public specific advice, I focus on the potential moves when it is proven wrong. I will watch the Eur/Usd 1.5342 level with interest.

Last Friday's single OneNightStand trade, long Usd/Jpy @ 104.66 was exited early this morning at 104.52 for a small 14 pip loss Monday 00:01 CST.

Later today, FirstStrike entered 3 of the markets we placed our orders.

The Eur/Usd went up, just elected entry and dropped heavily, creating an immediate loss.

The Gbp/Jpy got long, the Gbp/Usd got short, and both got stopped out soon after entry.

The only trades not hit are the trades for Usd/Chf and the Usd/Jpy which is poised at a critical juncture which could force a quick and big move in either direction.

The following are our 3 initial FirstStrike entries:
  • Eur/Usd: long @ 1.5693, stopped out @ 1.5633.
  • Gbp/Jpy: long @ 208.08, stopped out @ 207.18. (NOTE: 90 pip risk instead of 60)
  • Gbp/Usd: short @ 1.9787, stopped out @ 1.9847.

FirstStrike trades still waiting to be elected:
  • BUY 1.0388, stop 1.0328.
  • SELL 1.0288, stop 1.0348.
  • BUY 105.02, stop 104.42.
  • SELL 104.02, stop 104.62.
When one of the buy or sell orders is filled on a currency pair, I cancel the other order. Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

Current equity is $722.36.

Have a good night.

Joel Rensink

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