Tuesday, April 15, 2008

Euro is trying hard to show a strong face, but..., -- IFCN Wk 19 -Tue- Equity: $741.12

FirstStrike entered all 5 of the markets we follow. One by one all the trades have gotten stopped out except the Eur/Usd. Very like last week.

I wouldn't give great odds on the Eur/Usd trade surviving this week. Then again, I wasn't that confident about last week's Euro trade either.

It should be very difficult for the Euro to remain strong when the other major pairs are losing out to the dollar.

This doesn't mean that the dollar is now going to be a strong currency in the future. But it isn't out of the ordinary for a weak market to to have a “dead cat bounce”. Such a bounce could last anywhere from weeks to months. Not years.

Meanwhile, our drawdown continues.

The great thing about trading systems like
FirstStrike and One Night Stand is the fact that after you get stopped out for the week, that is about as bad as it should get.

And you always have next week.

We got 5 FirstStrike entries and are still alive, as mentioned above-- in the long Eur/Usd.
  • Eur/Usd:   long   @ 1.5757,  stop 1.5697. Currently in for small profit.
  • Gbp/Jpy:   short @ 198.19, stopped out @ 199.09 for a 90 pip loss.
  • Gbp/Usd:  long   @ 1.9764, stopped out @ 1.9704 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Chf:   short @   .9987,  stopped out @ 1.0047 for a 60 pip loss.
  • Usd/Jpy:   short @ 100.41, stopped out @ 101.01 for a 60 pip los

Any FirstStrike trade not stopped out before Friday gets exited on Friday just before 15:00 CST.

-----Until Further Notice!!!-----


This means 75 pip breakout orders, and 90 pip stops. Reduce position size proportionately!

As previously pointed out in the FirstStrike system material, the +/- volatility breakout figures being used in all of the currency pairs in this challenge are not “magic” numbers.

With the recent increase in Japanese Yen volatility and the general expansion of spreads when the markets feel threatened, the breakout/stop numbers will be increased in the GBP/JPY as dictated above. Overall profitability should remain similar, and at the same time be friendlier to equity swings.

Someday we can discuss the actual size of market “noise” and its affect on trading systems. It not only hurts your potential. You can harness it to help your trading too.

Current equity is $741.12.

Joel Rensink

PS: To receive the FREE! trading rules for the Infiniteyield Forex Challenge ($499 value) and the semi-monthly newsletter about this challenge, send an email to:
newsletter@infiniteyield.com and tell me to which address you would like it sent. Please do not use AOL or Yahoo addresses. Nothing personal, but they've been known to filter out more good mail than actual spam. Try a Gmail address. It's free, simple and perfect for traders!

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